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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Feb 18, 2009 - 07:58am PT
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From one point of view the Poisson distribution has no memory
Back when I was in graduate school this seemed like a flaw, so I became briefly intrigued
by its relative-with-a-memory, which some called the contagious Poisson. Although people with
memories noticed that the contagious Poisson had already been discovered, and long known
under a different and less dangerous-sounding name.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Feb 18, 2009 - 09:26am PT
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picked it up in one of those flying petri dishes they call airliners
Gotta spend tomorrow in those petri dishes, I'm taking Airborne as my favorite placebo.
Although I already paid my dues, I'd like to think, with a month or so of down time
with that (?) chest/sinus bug earlier this winter. And got a flu shot, FWIW.
Good luck to us all!
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Karl Baba
Trad climber
Yosemite, Ca
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Feb 18, 2009 - 01:09pm PT
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Hi Doggy
Welcome and thanks for that last long post. Soo good to read I was sad when it ended. Great story well told.
Life is good
Peace
Karl
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pip the dog
Mountain climber
the outer bitterroots
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Topic Author's Reply - Feb 18, 2009 - 01:19pm PT
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Chiloe
is the "Airborne" you mentioned some kind of medication or diet supplement intended as a preventive (prophalactic) for picking up 'the plague' or whatever? or did i read that wrong.
i'd be interested to know, as i too spend way too much time on air petri dish (though my work stuff never involves itineraries as intriguing as yours).
i keep myself fit, eat a healthy diet, and have taken to washing my hands as if i had OCD as suggested by md pals who rely on this to avoid picking up ever bug that comes through their practices.
and yet i routinely get hammered by the bug of the month. after this last bout i'm seriously considering showing up for my flights in a full hazmat suit and a respirator (sure the TSA dudes would dig that).
definitely interested in any tips on this front.
^,,^
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Feb 18, 2009 - 01:21pm PT
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next thing i know, williams was kneeling before me, laughing and talking to my crotch (and the mic therein). he starts interviewing my schlong. and his stuff, is of course, way funnier than mine. me, it is everything i can do to just stand there and not wet myself with laughter (and in that moment, electrocute myself. i actually breathed long enough to worry about this likely outcome).
Hah, we all shoulda been there. Are you writing this stuff down, besides here?
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Feb 18, 2009 - 01:24pm PT
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As for Airborne, sez the Mayo Clinic:
Some people swear by Airborne, a popular herbal cold remedy that's sold over-the-counter in many drugstores. But there's no conclusive evidence that this product or any of its ingredients prevent colds or shorten their duration.
But I have much faith in placebos, what else can ya do? That and frequent hand-washing (someone did establish that helps).
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pip the dog
Mountain climber
the outer bitterroots
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Topic Author's Reply - Feb 18, 2009 - 01:33pm PT
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Karl,
outstanding to hear from you, great one. i've been following the thread of your current travels with much joy (and a good dose of envy). if all goes well i may be back in that neck of the woods in not all too long. we'll see. dogboy plans are likely the most unstable element on the planet.
be well,
^,,^
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pip the dog
Mountain climber
the outer bitterroots
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Topic Author's Reply - Feb 18, 2009 - 01:50pm PT
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MH2,
much enjoyed the bulb photo. "immortal, so far..." is that the "Livermore Bulb" in the photo?
i have a close friend (who until recently worked at both Lawrence Berkeley and Lawrence Livermore Labs) who collects very early light bulbs (of all things). many of the earliest are hand blown and have all manner of filament assemblies that are like jewelry in their intricacy. in all, rather beautiful in their way.
every so often this pal has a 'light bulb party', the centerpiece of which is him carefully attaching selections from his collection to a fancy power supply unit and slowly lighting each bulb up in a darkened room. this to much oohs and aaahs and applause.
as odd as it sounds, excellent gigs. never miss them if i am anywhere close.
i'm going to ask this guy to help me wrap my doggie head around the ramifications of the Poisson distribution(s). he's so wicked smart that he needs a radiator strapped to his forehead to keep his brain cool and he lives in a world of the most arcane math.
also a climber of some skill, he once spent an entire road trip to the sierras helping me see chaos theory from his side. made the many miles fly by.
^,,^
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pip the dog
Mountain climber
the outer bitterroots
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Topic Author's Reply - Feb 18, 2009 - 02:16pm PT
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Rokjox,
re:
> Its no small accomplishment to have opened for Leno and
> performed Improv with Robin Williams.
fwiw, i never opened for leno, just saw him perform there. and as for doing improv with williams -- williams did the improv, me i just stood there with a mic down my pants trying not to piss myself with laughter. i want to keep my brief tryst with schtick in the proper scale.
leno and most other headliners would woosh in 5 minutes before their sceduled gig, shake a few hands, do the gig, then woosh out 5 mintues after.
what was striking about williams helping me through it (both backstage and on onstage) is that he was even there at all, that early. remember, i was not opening for him -- i was opening for the guy who was opening for him (another note of 'scale'). so i went on like an hour before williams was scheduled.
but he was often like that. he'd show up way early and just goof off backstage -- leaving the few there to witness it apoplexic with laughter. the suckers who bought tickets never got to see that show.
^,,^
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Feb 18, 2009 - 02:23pm PT
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wrap my doggie head around the ramifications of the Poisson distribution
As I recall, Pynchon actually wrote the equation in his novel (don't have that here to check).
Sometime after Pynchon but still a long time ago, I wrote it elsewhere, and tried to explain:
"The Poisson distribution, named after a 19th-century French mathematician, may be used as an approximation for the binomial distribution when π is small and n is large. It also has other important statistical applications; for example many variables that are counts of random events follow Poisson distributions....
A classic example of this application was provided by R.D. Clarke, who found that the Poisson equation predicted the pattern of hits by V-1 "buzz bombs" launched against London during World War II. The V-1, a precursor of modern cruise missiles, was intended as a terror weapon to demoralize the London population with random strikes from the sky. Clarke divided south London into 576 small areas, each 1/4th of a square kilometer, and counted the number of V-1 hits in each area. A total of 535 V-1's hit this part of the city, or an average of slightly less than one hit for each 1/4 km2 area: μ = 535/576 = .929 hits/area. Two hundred and twenty-nine of the 576 areas were not hit at all, but some unfortunate areas were hit three, four, or even five times....
[snip calculations]
The close fit ... between Poisson predictions and actual counts shows that the theoretical Poisson distribution provides a remarkably good model for the real-world pattern of bomb hits. This discovery was turned into a literary metaphor by Thomas Pynchon, in his strange novel Gravity's Rainbow (1973).
Other researchers have found the Poisson distribution to be a good model for phenomena as diverse as deaths by horse kick in the Prussian army and particle emissions in radioactive decay."
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pip the dog
Mountain climber
the outer bitterroots
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Topic Author's Reply - Feb 18, 2009 - 02:34pm PT
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Chiloe,
re:
> Are you writing this stuff down, besides here?
i appreiciate the compliment, but nah, to date i've seen no reason to write this stuff down in any formal way. i have been remarkably fortunate to literally trip into some remarkable moments (a pal of mine whose fiction you will find in any bookstore has often said that my life seems driven by an 'improbable situation thruster').
over the years i've worked on my writing with the thought that if i ever come up with something really worth reading, i'll have the skills to write it. that day may never come, at this point that's ok by me.
in the meantime i do enjoy occasionally just letting the dog in my head out for a romp. a venue like this seems a good place for dogs.
~~~
> But I have much faith in placebos, what else can ya do?
Blake has a line i often think of and have long admired:
"Hope alone makes the heart beat."
amen.
thanks for the info on Airborne. i'm with you, i'll try it.
^,,^
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MH2
climber
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Feb 19, 2009 - 03:43pm PT
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With Russ and pip having laid out Strangelove on the dissection table with pins in all the major organs, nerves, muscles, bones, blood vessels, and a few lymphatics, threads from the pins running to neatly labeled rectangles of construction paper, it is time to wonder at this lyric just before Strangelove and the sentiments that led to the screenwriting of the masterwork:
Oh Franklin Roosevelt
Told the people how he felt
And we damned near believed what he said
He said, "I hate war, and so does Eleanor
But we won't be safe 'til everybody's dead."
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pip the dog
Mountain climber
the outer bitterroots
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Topic Author's Reply - Feb 19, 2009 - 05:55pm PT
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"there i was Jack, feeding you Jack, feeding you..."
()
fingers crossed, hoping my first ever photo post works. i saw scooter's very clear instructions on the JESUS IS COMING VERY SOON!!!!! thread.
of course scooter was looking for a photo of jesus. all i can offer is Jack! and Mandrake!
fingers crossed... here goes nuttin'...
^,,^
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pip the dog
Mountain climber
the outer bitterroots
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Topic Author's Reply - Feb 19, 2009 - 05:58pm PT
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un-fookin'-believable -- it worked!
i'm a genius! (more likely divine intervention...)
^,,^
~~~
guess i shoulda seached for a somewaht larger image. one thing at a time.
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perswig
climber
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Feb 19, 2009 - 06:14pm PT
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Abandon all hope...you're doomed now.
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pip the dog
Mountain climber
the outer bitterroots
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Topic Author's Reply - Feb 19, 2009 - 06:31pm PT
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for brother Thorgon -- who asked (and had the nuts to post up his own):
the only 4 photos of me that i am aware of on the net. anything else (as in maybe a climbing shot?) -- well, you'll have to wait until i get to at least near my home. for i'm on the road and, surprisingly, don't actually travel with photos of my own fool self. sheesh.
all are max photo size -- as locked onto the net.
1. this dog seems to forever be a big wind attractor (ootook gayno!)
()
2. with a sweetie in the desert (i'm the cute one in the SARONG, NOT SKIRT! -- do remember that the sarong is the official dress uniform of the 5th largest standing army in the world! so there!)
()
3. no, i don't have severe jaundice -- my brother just left the disposable camera on his dashboard all summer long and the film like went "all funny in the head". i'm actually rather pale (irish and all). as taken by my young nephew at just the moment i said "frogboy, put your daddy's camera down. now!)
()
4. this one seems rather fitting for me in this venue. what my sweetie calls my 'big boy jacket'
()
i will tolerate absolutely no crap on any of them. sheesh, you think i actually chose this mug? but i have stayed true to my word to Thor.
done. forever.
^,,^
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