Ready for the Apocalypse? (U.S. Political Megathread)

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dirtbag

climber
Nov 19, 2015 - 01:41pm PT
Anyone else having flashbacks to 2002? I had naively thought we had put this hyped up fear and paranoia behind us. Those feelings did not serve us well.
crankster

Trad climber
No. Tahoe
Nov 19, 2015 - 01:54pm PT
Dirt, I see it as a call to get other nations in the region to step up. We do need to degrade their ability to organize freely. If there's a major attack in the U.S., god forbid, that's how we can get drawn into a ground war. I think Hillary learned from her mistaken Iraq vote.
dirtbag

climber
Nov 19, 2015 - 02:17pm PT
I agree, but we know that the hawkish elements will clamor for overreach, and a scared public will likely comply.
HighDesertDJ

Trad climber
Topic Author's Reply - Nov 19, 2015 - 07:20pm PT
http://www.theonion.com/multiblogpost/this-war-will-destabilize-the-entire-mideast-regio-11534

This War Will Destabilize The Entire Mideast Region And Set Off A Global Shockwave Of Anti-Americanism vs. No It Won’t


Once again, the Onion is prescient as hell. (make sure to peep the date)
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
Shetville , North of Los Angeles
Nov 19, 2015 - 09:29pm PT
The organ grinder will play his tune and the mental retard zombies will drool and dance their way to the polls and puke all over their dangling chads...Loons...!
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Nov 19, 2015 - 10:04pm PT
John E, I went to a lecture tonight you would have enjoyed.

Lord Adair Turner, on economics and his new book.

Fascinating (for economics!)
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Nov 20, 2015 - 03:10am PT
Fascinating (for economics!)
I'm glad you added the parenthetical, Ken. Otherwise, I would have worried about you.

Was he speaking about his book generally, or did he have a specific topic? I always find him interesting. His recognition that no regulators anywhere saw the financial crisis of the last decade coming, yet his ability to articulate an intellectually honest argument that freer markets weren't the answer, either, demonstrated (to me, anyway) a pragmatism I see lacking far too often in our profession. Who knows? Now that he's leading a Soros-financed think tank, George may actually learn something. (This last sentence is a partially inside joke for Norton's amusement).

John
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Nov 20, 2015 - 09:21am PT
He was speaking primarily on his book. Unfortunately, it was not recorded like many talks I go to, so can't link.
John M

climber
Nov 20, 2015 - 09:37am PT
His recognition that no regulators anywhere saw the financial crisis of the last decade coming,

that ones bothers me too, since I and a number of my friends forecast it, and none of us have a degree in economics. what a trip. Blinded by the trees.
HighDesertDJ

Trad climber
Topic Author's Reply - Nov 20, 2015 - 09:47am PT
20,000,000 people came to the US last year on the visa waiver program which basically lets people fill out a form and come to the US. The 9/11 hijackers mostly came in on student visas. Why would a terrorist go through the trouble of waiting 18-36 months, undergoing a thorough background check, deal with numerous meetings with government officials where they have to repeat their story over and over again and then be followed up on by government officials if they are accepted for asylum when they can just apply for a visa and travel freely with no background check at all?
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Nov 20, 2015 - 09:59am PT
This one coming up, though:

=
The Conservative Heart: How to Build a Fairer, Happier and More Prosperous America
Arthur C. Brooks, President, American Enterprise Institute
December 1, 2015
Santa Monica, Calif.
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Nov 20, 2015 - 10:02am PT
Well, I'm a SOB! I was wrong, the talk WAS video'd, and is up:

http://livestream.com/milkeninstitute/events/4521129

Enjoy! not just for John, but for anyone who has a serious interest in what happened in the recession, and how to get out of it.
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Nov 20, 2015 - 10:08am PT
What about the release of Jonathon Pollard? Supposedly convicted of "spying for Israel".

I advocate that he is not a spy.

A spy is a patriot who infiltrates a foreign country to steal secrets.

A traitor is an unpatriotic person who sends secrets to a foreign country or agency with the goal of helping them, at the expense of their own country.

Clearly, he is a traitor, not a spy.
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Nov 20, 2015 - 11:06am PT
that ones bothers me too, since I and a number of my friends forecast it, and none of us have a degree in economics. what a trip. Blinded by the trees.

That is quite true. I got back into economic forecasting on a professional basis because I bucked the consensus forecasts in 2006 and insisted that a major correction was likely, as part of a forecast of activity in west coast ports done for a friend (and now an economics partner). The consensus then was a slight decrease in GDP growth (i.e. slowing down to, say 2% growth. I though a 5% decline was much more likely. Even that proved, ultimately, optimistic.)

I'd like to say that my economics training caused me to make that strong a forecast, but conventional economic analysis had little to do with it. Rather, my (then) 27-year legal experience in debtor-creditor relations made the coming crash's likelihood abundantly clear to me, and to just about every other insolvency counsel.

And Ken, thanks for the links and the heads up. I always enjoy reading the comments of Brooks, too, perhaps because one of my main climbing partners and friends at Berkeley was Art Brook (no "s"), who is a true gem of a person.

John
HighDesertDJ

Trad climber
Topic Author's Reply - Nov 20, 2015 - 01:16pm PT
From another forum I frequent:

This post is going to be long, but contains actual information about the refugee process.

Background: I'm an attorney that has done a few dozen asylum, refugee, and U-Visa cases on a pro bono basis..

The refugee screening process is multi-layered and is very difficult to get through. Most people languish in temporary camps for months to years while their story is evaluated and checked, often through other official governmental agencies.

First, a refugee doe not get to choose what country they will be resettled to. If they already have family (legal) in a country, that makes it more likely that they will go to that country to be with that support structure. Other than that, it is random. So, you can not simply walk into a refugee camp, show a document, and say, I want to go to America. Instead, the UNHCR (United Nations High Commissioner on Refugees) works with the local authorities to try to take care of basic needs. Once the person/family is registered to receive basic necessities, they can be processed for resettlement. Many refugees are not actually interested in permanent resettlement as they hope to return to their country and are hoping that the turmoil they fled will be resolved soon. In fact, most refugees in refugee events never resettle to a third country. Those that do want to resettle have to go through an extensive process to continually retain their temporary housing.

Resettlement in the U.S. is a long process and takes many steps. The Refugee Admissions Program is jointly administered by the Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration (PRM) in the Department of State, the Office of Refugee Resettlement (ORR) in the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), and offices within the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) within DHS conducts refugee interviews and determines individual eligibility for refugee status in the United States. Each of these offices has to separately sign off on any refugee before they are admitted.

The United States evaluates refugees on a tiered system with three levels of priority.

First Priority are people who have suffered compelling persecution or for whom no other durable solution exists. These individuals are referred to the United States by UNHCR, or they are identified by the U.S. embassy or a non-governmental organization (NGO).

Second priority are groups of “special concern” to the United States. The Department of State determines these groups, with input from USCIS, UNHCR, and designated NGOs. At present, we prioritize certain persons from the former Soviet Union, Cuba, Democratic Republic of Congo, Iraq, Iran, Burma, and Bhutan.

Third priority are relatives of refugees (parents, spouses, and unmarried children under 21) who are already settled in the United States may be admitted as refugees. The U.S.-based relative must file an Affidavit of Relationship (AOR) and must be processed by DHS.

Before being allowed to come to the United States, each refugee must undergo an extensive interviewing, screening, and security clearance process conducted by Regional Refugee Coordinators and overseas Resettlement Support Centers (RSCs). Individuals generally must not already be firmly resettled (a legal term of art that would be a separate article). Just because one falls into the three priorities above does not guarantee admission to the United States.

The Immigration laws require that the individuals prove that they have a “well-founded fear,” (another legal term which would be a book.) This fear must be proved regardless of the person’s country, circumstance, or classification in a priority category. There are multiple interviews and people are challenged on discrepancies. I had a client who was not telling the truth on her age (she wanted to be younger) and the agency challenged her on it and ultimately denied her admission even though there was no legal significance to the lie. Refugees are not simply admitted because they have a well founded fear. They still must show that they are not subject to exclusion under Section 212(a) of the INA. These grounds include serious health matters, moral or criminal matters, as well as security issues. In addition, they can be excluded for such things as polygamy, misrepresentation of facts on visa applications, smuggling, or previous deportations. Under some circumstances, the person may be eligible to have the ground waived but that adds time to the process. I have seen reports that potential refugees aren't fingerprinted or otherwise verified. This is comically misinformed. Some applicants are subjected to DNA swab screenings and blood tests (particularly if they are from Western Africa and run the risk of carrying communicable disease). I've never had an applicant make it through without some kind of fingerprint or biometric verification.

After all of this, a refugee can be conditionally accepted for resettlement. Then, the RSC sends a request for assurance of placement to the United States, and the Refugee Processing Center (RPC) works with private voluntary agencies (VOLAG) to determine where the refugee will live. If the refugee does have family in the U.S., efforts will be made to resettle close to that family.

Every person accepted as a refugee for planned admission to the United States is conditional upon passing a medical examination and passing all security checks. Frankly, there is more screening of refugees than ever happens to get on an airplane. Of course, yes, no system can be 100% foolproof. But if that is your standard, then you better shut down the entire airline industry, close the borders, and stop all international commerce and shipping. Every one of those has been the source of entry of people and are much easier ways to gain access to the U.S. Only upon passing all of these checks (which involve basically every agency of the government involved in terrorist identification) can the person actually be approved to travel.

Before departing, refugees sign a promissory note to repay the United States for their travel costs. This travel loan is an interest-free loan that refugees begin to pay back six months after arriving in the country.

Once the VOLAG is notified of the travel plans, it must arrange for the reception of refugees at the airport and transportation to their housing at their final destination.
This process from start to finish averages 18 to 24 months, but I have seen it take years.

The reality is that about half of the refugees are children, another quarter are elderly. Almost all of the adults are either moms or couples coming with children. Each year the President, in consultation with Congress, determines the numerical ceiling for refugee admissions. For Fiscal Year (FY) 2016, the proposed ceiling is 85,000. We have been averaging about 70,000 a year for the last number of years. (Source: Refugee Processing Center)

Over one-third of all refugee arrivals (35.1 percent, or 24,579) in FY 2015 came from the Near East/South Asia—a region that includes Iraq, Iran, Bhutan, and Afghanistan.
Another third of all refugee arrivals (32.1 percent, or 22,472) in FY 2015 came from Africa.
Over a quarter of all refugee arrivals (26.4 percent, or 18,469) in FY 2015 came from East Asia — a region that includes China, Vietnam, and Indonesia. (Source: Refugee Processing Center)

Finally, the process in Europe is different. I would be much more concerned that terrorists are infiltrating the European system because they are not nearly so extensive and thorough in their process.

TL;DR: Everyone firing off "refugees are scary" flares don't know their hand from their ass.

EDIT: It has come to my attention that an attorney named "Scott Hicks" has publicly shared this same block of text originally found in a CLE packet produced by Bay Area Legal Aid. Original credit should go to the producers of this packet for most verbiage and all information contained therein.

Source appears to be this guy.
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Nov 20, 2015 - 02:14pm PT
Scott Hicks's post is consistent with the experiences of middle eastern refugees of which I am aware, HDDJ.

John
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Nov 21, 2015 - 10:12pm PT
Edwards wins governorship

"Karen Carter Petersen, chairman of the state Democratic Party, called Edwards an “amazing candidate” who connected with voters through his personal integrity. “He’s lived his values,” Petersen said, adding that the party’s decision to coalesce around Edwards as a candidate in March helped clear the way for his strong run. “We’ve worked to rebuild and rebrand the party from the bottom up,” she said, “and focus on those policies where we can all agree.”

In many ways, Edwards is a throwback to a previous generation of Southern Democrats, many of whom served in the military and touted traditional values. Through the efforts of the Democratic Leadership Council, many of them — including Bill Clinton, Al Gore, Chuck Robb and Sam Nunn — went on to national success."
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