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aspendougy
Trad climber
Los Angeles, CA
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Feb 17, 2017 - 08:48pm PT
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Yes, the Chinese dam disaster was so gigantic in its scale. They got 7 inches of rain per hour, and 40 or so inches in one day. Read the write up in WIKI; about 60 other dams failed due to that one storm. It was basically a typhoon that stalled and dumped epic amounts of rain.
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TLP
climber
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Feb 17, 2017 - 10:03pm PT
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rj, that is hilarious!
John Hansen, I can answer some of your questions. The pre-dam topography included a saddle at an elevation of somewhere between 850 and 875 almost precisely below the location of the concrete of the emergency spillway weir, at 901. Before any construction, they would certainly have removed the ordinary soil, and maybe also some fairly highly weathered rock, right at the saddle. For simplicity, let's say that subgrade is about 850. The weir itself is some 10 or maybe 15 feet of concrete (maybe more), but that still means that there's 35 feet of engineered fill below the concrete of the weir. I might be mistaken, but still it is nearly certain that there's SOME compacted fill between bedrock and the base of the weir construction. There are links to the original construction plans, post up again if you really want to see these and I'll chase down the link.
This is certainly the source of their extreme alarm upon seeing how close the erosion got to that concrete. There's only the tiniest energy dissipation apron at its base. If there was turbulent overflow getting at the compacted fill, the weir could have failed in a big hurry.
On the happy side, if they can extend the concrete-grouted boulders all the way from the weir toe to that one single concentrated gully on the grayish rock, they'll be relatively happy campers. That's the original tributary path, pre-dam, so a LOT of concentrated flow could stay in it, well behaved, for months. That pre-dam (and now activated present lower emergency channel) is on the really hard rock, same stuff that is still sitting there at the base of the main spillway waterfall. That's some very compentent material.
Now, the bad news about the new emergency apron is, there's no sub drains. So if there's any significant amount of seepage into it from whatever source, soil will soften and pressure will build, and the apron could break apart a bit. But even if it does, it might stay in place for just barely long enough to make it to summer - even if the emergency spillway does come into play.
Back to good news, the main one is holding up really really well in its damaged condition, with days of huge flows (100,000 cfs) down it. If they can just keep on with that one, they'll make it OK to next summer's incredibly pressurized schedule to construct a completely new spillway before October. The engineers and construction managers will need a whole damn oil tanker of Red Bull to get that done.
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Studly
Trad climber
WA
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Feb 18, 2017 - 05:46am PT
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I would say this is dam well fawked. Criminal negligence really. But blame it on the rain.
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neebee
Social climber
calif/texas
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Feb 18, 2017 - 07:56am PT
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hey there, say, DMT.. thanks for sharing the maps...
also, tuolumne_tradster:
thanks for updates...
so, it is MONDAY now, though, not sunday?
also, thanks for shares, cleo,
interesting to hear from someone in this field (related field)
well, you know what i mean...
and, from ed, too...
and well, all of you, as well...
hoping the best, for everyone concerned...
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Sula
Trad climber
Pennsylvania
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Feb 18, 2017 - 08:45am PT
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The worst one in U.S. history was the Jonestown disaster back in the 1800's. It was in Pennsylvania, about 2,200 died. That was actually the Johnstown Flood (1889).
The Jonestown disaster (1978) was a bit different. Over 900 people died, but the problem liquid wasn't rain water - it was Flavor-Aid (often incorrectly reported as Kool-Aid).
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tuolumne_tradster
Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
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Feb 18, 2017 - 10:44am PT
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Water managers issued evacuation orders for nearly 200,000 Californians just hours before they thought an emergency spillway at Oroville dam could fail. Emergency officials said it would send a 30 foot wall of water downstream.
That might be hard to imagine, but a computer simulation by UC Santa Cruz research geophysicist Steven Ward shows flood waters would hit highway 70 in about 30 minutes. In less than three hours, it would hit Highway 99. After 9 hours, it would fan out to cover a 231-square mile area.
Ward says it would be a massive wave near Oroville. The videos of the main spillway releasing 100,000 cubic feet per second pale in comparison.
“We’ve seen all week the videos of the regular spillway operating at full speed at about 100,000 cubic feet per second. This partial break is about 20 times that. It’s going to overpower the dikes and levees for sure,” says Ward.
Emergency spillway failure simulation...
[Click to View YouTube Video]
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tuolumne_tradster
Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
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Feb 18, 2017 - 10:55am PT
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check out this photo posted on the metabunk.org blog site by rock whisperer...
Freshly excavated hillside in 1968 showing the two main bedrock units, likely sheeted dikes(between blue lines) and the metavolcanics. Note the varying composition within the metavolcanics, light yellow-orange, dark orange, and very light grays, extending deep underground. Apparent dip to the layers is to the west. What are the circles on peoples heads?
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jstan
climber
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Feb 18, 2017 - 11:29am PT
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..I'm figuring our how to retire and am failing miserably
Seriously doubt that. Most likely your problem is that you still enjoy the work.
Retirement forces one to make a couple of irreversible decisions. Spreadsheets helped me make those.
Working a few extra years and saving as much as possible helps one avoid having to take investment
risk. There are claims now that inflation is starting to stir. In the face of overpopulation I wonder how
there can be increased wages. If so decreased standards of living are assured. Money today certainly
has no time value, to speak of.
I am watching Japan as a guide to what is ahead for us. Hopefully prewar Germany does not become
the more appropriate model.
Have been watching Oroville. The hole in the main spillway does not seem to have a ten foot thick
concrete slab underneath. Even had it this, that slab has to end somewhere. A flow of several acre
feet per second in a narrow channel can move anything. The river itself needs to be widened and
made hard downstream. What we have here is a failure to match impedances.
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Eric Beck
Sport climber
Bishop, California
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Feb 18, 2017 - 06:22pm PT
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Bumping this to help get the trump spam off the front page.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Feb 18, 2017 - 06:31pm PT
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In the face of overpopulation I wonder how
there can be increased wages.
Actually, the main problem is that a high percentage of Americans are not
trained or educated in the right fields to make it in an increasingly
competitive world. That's why being a plumber is such a good career, as
long as yer not prone to licking yer fingers.
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Ezra Ellis
Trad climber
North wet, and Da souf
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Feb 19, 2017 - 03:28am PT
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I'm hoping for the best over the next couple of days.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Feb 19, 2017 - 10:26am PT
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That thang creeps me out! I knew I shouldn't have watched the vid - I'm gonna have
a nightmare tonight!
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cleo
Social climber
wherever you go, there you are
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Feb 19, 2017 - 11:41am PT
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That Glory Hole creep me out almost at much as that Planet Earth snakes-iguana video *shudder*
(google it)
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hooblie
climber
from out where the anecdotes roam
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Feb 19, 2017 - 11:57am PT
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squirt boats only
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tuolumne_tradster
Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
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Feb 19, 2017 - 12:46pm PT
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http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-oroville-spillway-failure-20170216-story.html
Bill Croyle stood in front of an aerial photo of Lake Oroville and swept his hand across the top of the emergency spillway that was helping drain water out of the brimming reservoir. “Solid rock. All this is rock,” Croyle, acting director of the Department of Water Resources, said with an air of confidence at the Feb. 11 briefing.
Interviews and records suggest that the near-catastrophe grew out of fundamental problems with the original design of the emergency spillway that were never corrected despite questions about its adequacy.
The “solid” bedrock that Croyle thought would stand up to the force of the spill was soft and easily eroded. The long concrete lip of the spillway was not anchored into the rock. Critical power lines were strung across the spillway, which consists of nothing more than an earthen hillside covered with trees and brush.
“There is no way to rationalize running water down a hillslope with deep soils and a forest on it and weak bedrock,” said Jeffrey Mount, a UC Davis emeritus professor of geology and expert on California water.
Federal and state officials said the cause of the spillway’s near-failure was under investigation.
Photo of the emergency spillway taken on Feb 12, 2017 shortly before the emergency evacuation was ordered.
NOTE: Bill Croyle was appointed acting DWR director by governor Brown in Dec 2016. Croyle, a Civil Engineer, had been on the job a little over a month when he made those statements regarding the emergency spillway.
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Ken M
Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
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Feb 19, 2017 - 12:49pm PT
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I can't imagine a "wet" permanent patch, so they'll have to "get by" until spring, when the work can get done. I imagine a lot of planning going on right now, and wrangling over who pays.
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healyje
Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
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Feb 19, 2017 - 02:25pm PT
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Sula
Trad climber
Pennsylvania
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Feb 19, 2017 - 02:41pm PT
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Impressive photo.
Obviously, the primary spillway will have to be more or less entirely rebuilt.
Probably after an emergency spillway worthy of the name is completed.
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