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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Jul 24, 2015 - 08:05pm PT
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http://lithops.as.arizona.edu/~jill/EPO/Stars/drake.html
there are of order 100 billion stars in our galaxy,
10% of those stars in are "sun like"
1/5 have planets that are "earth like"
so
100/10/5 = 2 billion earth like planets in our galaxy
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zBrown
Ice climber
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Topic Author's Reply - Jul 24, 2015 - 08:09pm PT
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Let me see if I got it. The NASA estimate could be off by a billion? Should hB get an honorary degree? Or at least an honorarium? :)
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Studly
Trad climber
WA
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Jul 24, 2015 - 08:10pm PT
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Yes, in either direction?! Maybe earth is the only planet with life. Seems doubtful.
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zBrown
Ice climber
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Topic Author's Reply - Jul 24, 2015 - 08:15pm PT
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I"m kind of wondering whether Obama will take the bait and commission a feasibility study.
DMT:
.0000000000001%
Could you translate that into light years or bud lites for us laymenz?
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Jul 24, 2015 - 08:36pm PT
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The NASA estimate could be off by a billion?
did you read the abstract?
plus or minus half a billion...
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cleo
Social climber
wherever you go, there you are
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Jul 24, 2015 - 08:44pm PT
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I've never understood this 1% assumption, there is nothing to support it.
Actually, if you click the link on the Fermi Paradox, THAT EXACT SCENARIO (that there aren't other civilizations or life, and the several reasons why that may be) is one of the many hypotheses that is discussed. And it's interesting!
(Just food for thought is all)
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climbski2
Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
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Jul 24, 2015 - 08:49pm PT
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I'm willing to bet we find a signal from extraterrestrial life in the next 40 years. I would say the only reason we don't is if we don't seriously look for it. Which we aren't yet.
Ie serious effort with state of the art instruments and the best personnel given proper resources.
Not the crap receivers we have been using with no chance of detecting anything but a deliberate ridiculously powerful signal.
Basically we have never looked for the types of signals we humans put out with anything that could actually sense them at reasonable interstellar distances. Not at all surprising that we havn't yet found them..
I wouldn't be the least bit surprised that once we actually do we find 100's of signal location very quickly... kinda like what happened when we put kepler up there and actually looked for planets with the right tool.
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jstan
climber
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Jul 24, 2015 - 08:56pm PT
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At the rate things are going earth will be broadcasting for less than 100 years out of five billion. Pretty small time window. A blip at best. One part in ten million. If we do hear anything we will know they are a hell of a lot smarter than us.
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climbski2
Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
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Jul 24, 2015 - 09:06pm PT
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I really don't think anything will stop the human race until it evolves into something superior to itself. Oh we very well may destroy civilization any day. But the human race is not so easy to eradicate. We are one tough smart adaptable organism capable of subsisting on nearly every environment on the planet. I would expect whoever is left to fairly quickly get back to broadcasting withing a couple hundred years..and perhaps never lose it completely.
I also would not be surprised if life on other planets evolved organs that use radio frequency for communication and sensing the environment around themselves. I'm generally surprised life on earth doesn't do this more.
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MisterE
Gym climber
Being In Sierra Happy Of Place
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Jul 24, 2015 - 10:46pm PT
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That basically equates to many trillions of idiots, right?
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clinker
Trad climber
Santa Cruz, California
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Jul 25, 2015 - 07:51am PT
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I wonder how good the bakeries are in the intergalactic empire?
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clinker
Trad climber
Santa Cruz, California
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Jul 25, 2015 - 07:56am PT
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Intelligent life gathered early this morning on our planet.
Certainly more alert after a pastry and a good cup of local java.
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clinker
Trad climber
Santa Cruz, California
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Jul 25, 2015 - 08:07am PT
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Funding is being allocated for the Goldilocks Mission to find which planet is just right.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jul 25, 2015 - 09:08am PT
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Didn't Donald Rumsfeld adequately address this years ago?
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Big Mike
Trad climber
BC
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Jul 25, 2015 - 09:38am PT
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Conquistadors, stay home. And stay the f*#k off Mars. It might have life and killing it would be inexcusable. Utterly inexcusable.
You think the elites really give two shits about another species? They barely care about ours!
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zBrown
Ice climber
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Topic Author's Reply - Jul 25, 2015 - 09:45am PT
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From Hartouni "Drake" link:
http://tinyurl.com/Hartouni-link
We start with the total number of stars in the Milky Way.
200,000,000,000
Two hundred billion stars in the Milky Way.
What fraction of these stars are yellow stars like the Sun? Let's estimate that 10% of the stars in the Milky Way are like the Sun. Then we multiply 200,000,000,000 by 0.1 to give us the number of Sun-like stars-like stars in the Milky Way. The rest of the stars are probably too hot or too cold to have Earth-like planets.
200,000,000,000 x 0.10 = 20,000,000,000
Twenty billion stars in the Milky Way like our Sun.
How many planets does each solar system have which can support life?
In our solar system, we know that the Earth has life, and that Mars and Titan, one of the moons of Jupiter, may have once had conditions to support life. So let's say that the typical solar system has 2 planets which can support life. We multiply the number of Sun-like planets by 2, to get the total number of planets in the Milky Way orbiting stars like our Sun.
20,000,000,000 x 2 = 40,000,000,000
Forty billion planets like Earth orbiting stars like the Sun in the Milky Way.
How many planets have INTELLIGENT life which might try to contact us?
The best we can do is guess. What do you think? A planet might have life-forms, but only simple ones like bacteria, or only primitive ones like reptiles. Complex life like humans might evolve on a planet, but they may decide never to send a message.
On Earth, we have been capable of sending messages to other civilizations only for the last 50 years or so. The age of the Earth is 4.5 billion years. So one guess is 50/4.5 billion. So let's multiplly by 50 and divide by 4.5 billion.
40,000,000,000 x 50 = 2000,000,000,000
2000,000,000,000/4,500,000,000 = 444
444 intelligent civilizations in the Milky Way, capable of sending messages to Earth.
However, the famous physicist Enrico Fermi, when he heard about this calculation, asked
"If there are alien civilizations in the Universe, why haven't they visited Earth?"
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Norton
Social climber
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Jul 25, 2015 - 09:57am PT
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"If there are alien civilizations in the Universe, why haven't they visited Earth?"
odd question
because its the same reason earth has not visited alien civiiizations
the distances are just too damn far apart
and it is very probable that no matter how advanced that problem will never be solved, ever
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zBrown
Ice climber
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Topic Author's Reply - Jul 25, 2015 - 10:05am PT
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As long as we're guessing, let's guess that 1/2 of the intelligent life is more intelligent and/or more prolific transportation designers than earthlings (and similarly 1/2 aren't).
Make up your own assessment of how much smarter and/or design-adept.
Calculate the probability that one of the smarter group should have arrived at Earth by now.
Then, if these intelligentsia are truly that smart, how long would they hang around?
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elcap-pics
Big Wall climber
Crestline CA
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Jul 25, 2015 - 10:14am PT
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Simple physics... C = speed limit. Distances to other stars are way too far for humans to go anywhere but here in our own solar system. Do the math! Where can we go in our solar system that we can live on? No where. We can visit but not stay... especially in any numbers. We need to be better stewards of our home planet...Our salvation is not in space ... it is at home.
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Sierra Ledge Rat
Mountain climber
Old and Broken Down in Appalachia
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Lemme see if I get this correct:
1 billion earths/galaxy x 6 billion idiots/earth =
6,000,000,000,000,000 morons in this galaxy alone
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