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TGT
Social climber
So Cal
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Jun 24, 2010 - 10:20am PT
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Barnett's take on it, Probably correct.
"10 Things to Know About the Petraeus-McChrystal Switch
June 23, 2010 at 4:38PM by Thomas P.M. Barnett
Well, well, well — where have we seen this before? The indiscreet U.S. commander whose tongue digs his own grave. The stunning resignation submitted within hours of the magazine's online posting of the story. And General David Petraeus — yet again — as the go-to choice as America's turnaround specialist. Amidst all the nonstop chatter from pundits, politicians, and former ambassadors, allow me to distance myself from the familiar situation I was in with Admiral William Fallon and sift through the tea leaves to look ahead at Petraeus's new gig. Because there are magazine stories, and then there is war. And because — who knows? — Afghanistan may be a lot better off, and Obama may have picked his replacement in more ways than one.
1. There won't be a policy shift.
Unlike the Fallon saga, this time it was the president who spoke on camera and the general who was restricted to a press statement. That's because this time the Pentagon-White House flap was an issue of perception (Obama: "undermining civilian authority") — not any fundamental differences on how to fight the war at hand.
2. But the Pentagon now holds the keys to the castle.
Obama may have put his foot down, but he's making a serious gamble in anointing Petraeus, much like Bush did after Fallon's resignation. The president needed to make McChrystal's sacking seem like an upgrade in gravitas, which it is when the upgrade is to the boss of Central Command. Just don't forget that Petraeus is the only general capable of making Afghanistan his war, and not Obama's.
3. Petraeus is truly untouchable.
Understand this, too: Whatever the general wants, the general will get. After firing his Afghanistan commander twice in just thirteen months, Obama has no choice. Petraeus now outranks every administration player on Afghanistan. Save Obama — officially, at least.
4. Friends of Dave just became a lot more important.
Frankly, the new sheriff's strong personal relationships with the Pakistani military and security forces will matter a helluva lot more than which of McChrystal's lieutenants he keeps on or gets rid of. Hamid Karzai made his bid to keep McChrystal onboard, and was clearly ignored — as he should be — so now Obama's Af-Pak strategy will place the most eggs in Islamabad's basket.
5. The administration's review of Af-Pak begins now.
Originally scheduled for public release in December, any White House-led effort at a war report will inevitably take its cues from General Petraeus's own review of the situation as he assumes command in the coming weeks and months. Expect to hear the general outline at Petraeus's confirmation hearing next week, along with previews of the GOP's national-security campaign slogans for November.
6. Obama's 2012 campaign could be all about war.
If Petraeus says the strategy needs more time, then Obama's running for re-election as a wartime president. Period. There's just no way that Obama can overrule Petraeus on this one without wounding himself politically. McChrystal had been signaling that Obama's summer 2011 deadline to begin withdrawing combat troops was too optimistic. Expect Petraeus to press that case — however subtly — from day one.
7. Two jobs? One job? Same thing.
No matter what anyone says in the confirmation hearings, it won't matter if Petraeus steps down from CENTCOM or becomes The General with Two Hats. Nobody who would step in at CENTCOM could overshadow Petraeus, so that kind of a choice is unimportant in many respects. But given the general's recent health issues, it's hard to believe a replacement won't be picked. I'm betting on General James Mattis, whom I profiled in detail a couple years ago.
8. The counterinsurgency lives on.
"King David" has no peers when it comes to counterinsurgency credentials, having overseen the creation of the Army-Marine Corps's seminal field manual and commanded its first successful application in Iraq. If anything, Obama has now doubled-down on the COIN path in Af-Pak, so the COINdistas haven't taken any sort of hit.
9. The "Draft Dave" presidential run could live on, too.
Can Petraeus pull off his second COIN miracle? If he does, and if it's perceived as such prior to the GOP convention in the summer of 2012, then I guarantee you there will be a groundswell of delegate support to make him the Republican candidate — assuming he gets out of uniform in time.
10. There is one big winner from this hoopla.
And her name is Elena Kagan, whose confirmation hearings also happen to begin next week.
Read more: http://www.esquire.com/blogs/politics/david-petraeus-afghanistan-strategy-062310#ixzz0rmN6oKuE
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Mighty Hiker
climber
Vancouver, B.C.
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Jun 24, 2010 - 12:12pm PT
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Can Petraeus pull off his second COIN miracle? If he does, and if it's perceived as such prior to the GOP convention in the summer of 2012, then I guarantee you there will be a groundswell of delegate support to make him the Republican candidate — assuming he gets out of uniform in time. If Petraeus has any interest in becoming involved in politics, that is, and is or could be persuaded to become a Republican. The absurd ideology and rhetoric of many Republicans, the incompetence of Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld et al, and their contempt for and gross manipulation of the military, suggests otherwise.
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bluering
Trad climber
Santa Clara, Ca.
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Jun 24, 2010 - 12:16pm PT
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The absurd ideology and rhetoric of many Republicans, the incompetence of Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld et al, and their contempt for and gross manipulation of the military, suggests otherwise.
What's the other option, the party of Pelosi, Harry Reid, and Barney Frank?
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JEleazarian
Trad climber
Fresno CA
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Jun 24, 2010 - 12:24pm PT
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I think Obama made the right decision. Whether it's easy or hard, I'm glad he did what the CinC should do.
John
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Gene
Social climber
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Jun 24, 2010 - 12:25pm PT
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Question: BHO as Commander in Chief accepted McChrystals resignation. Did McChrystal resign his command, or has he resigned from the Army?
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bluering
Trad climber
Santa Clara, Ca.
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Jun 24, 2010 - 12:36pm PT
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Did McChrystal resign his command, or has he resigned from the Army?
just his command...
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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Jun 24, 2010 - 03:16pm PT
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General Stanley McChrystal banned Fox News from his headquarters, according to The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder.
Ambinder wrote Wednesday (via Michael Calderone) that McChrystal is a liberal, and added in the detail about Fox News to flesh out the point:
Even more about McChrystal: now it can be told. The story about him voting for Obama is not contrived. He is a political liberal. He is a social liberal. He banned Fox News from the television sets in his headquarters. Yes, really. This puts to rest another false rumor: that McChrystal deliberately precipitated his firing because he wants to run for President.
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healyje
Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
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Jun 24, 2010 - 04:32pm PT
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Again, it's all a matter of reshuffling the deck chairs - we don't have the force levels in Afghanistan for a COIN strategy to succeed - so it doesn't matter whether it's McCrystal, Petraeus, or little bopeep who's in charge.
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HighDesertDJ
Trad climber
Arid-zona
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Jun 24, 2010 - 07:01pm PT
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http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/25/world/asia/25military.html?hp
“Honestly, when I first read it, I was nearly sick,” said Admiral Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Mr. Gates said he wholly supported the decision by President Obama to retire General McChrystal, who had helped design the administration’s risky and expensive strategy of counterinsurgency in Afghanistan and was in charge of implementing it.
Mr. Gates said that the statements attributed in the article to General McChrystal and his inner circle of aides “are unacceptable under our form of government and are inconsistent with the high standards expected of military leaders.”
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bluering
Trad climber
Santa Clara, Ca.
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Jun 24, 2010 - 07:08pm PT
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“Honestly, when I first read it, I was nearly sick,” said Admiral Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Yeah, I'm sure he was. Mullen is an ass-kissing beauracrat and half of a man. That's why he's where he's at and why McChrystal is where is he's now at under Obama.
Pfft!
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Captain...or Skully
Big Wall climber
Transporter Room 2
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Jun 24, 2010 - 07:11pm PT
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Maccy is done. He's out.
They don't have a big pool of generals they can just pull another out & pop the old one back in, for reserve.
If a 4 star blows it, he's done. Gone. Kaput.
See ya!
You really DON'T understand the Military, do you, Blue?
It's a Whole different Culture, man.
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HighDesertDJ
Trad climber
Arid-zona
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Jun 24, 2010 - 07:12pm PT
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bluering said Yeah, I'm sure he was. Mullen is an ass-kissing beauracrat and half of a man. That's why he's where he's at and why McChrystal is where is he's now at under Obama.
Why do you hate our troops, bluering?
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bluering
Trad climber
Santa Clara, Ca.
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Jun 24, 2010 - 07:18pm PT
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HDDJ, I totally repect the troops. Do you know who THEY respected?
You really DON'T understand the Military, do you, Blue?
It's a Whole different Culture, man.
I understand it. What did Stan say specifically that warranted his removal?
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survival
Big Wall climber
A Token of My Extreme
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Jun 24, 2010 - 07:18pm PT
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What's the other option, the party of Pelosi, Harry Reid, and Barney Frank?
They're a lot more interesting than the party of More Old Lame Dicks (m.o.l.d.).
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Mighty Hiker
climber
Vancouver, B.C.
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Jun 24, 2010 - 07:24pm PT
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McChrystal was insubordinate in public, as were some of his senior officers. Many in the military may disrespect, or at least not understand, their political masters. But it's foolish for them to say so in public.
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HighDesertDJ
Trad climber
Arid-zona
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Jun 24, 2010 - 07:30pm PT
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bluering, you just shat all over the Joint Chief of Staff because you don't like his boss. Maybe in your acid fueled oppositeland that is considered "respect" but out here in soberville it's...um....not.
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bluering
Trad climber
Santa Clara, Ca.
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Jun 24, 2010 - 07:38pm PT
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Maybe in your acid fueled oppositeland that is considered "respect" but out here in soberville it's...um....not.
What?
EDIT: McChrystal was insubordinate in public,
explain how.
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Mighty Hiker
climber
Vancouver, B.C.
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Jun 24, 2010 - 07:49pm PT
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Being quoted in Rolling Stone as saying the things McChrystal said is clearly public insubordination. It is a magazine with extensive paper and on-line circulation, and what happened was not clearly not "ambush" journalism, or just foolish talk at a party or such. It is a puzzle as to how McChrystal et al could have said the things they did, knowing they would be quoted. Some sort of self-destructive impulse, perhaps?
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pc
climber
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Jun 24, 2010 - 08:00pm PT
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Right MH. He had to know what the reaction would be. Further underlined by him taking his resignation letter with him to the White House.
So basically, he just didn't want to do his job anymore. 'Whaaaaaaaa, too hard.' He's a frickin' quitter. Maybe he'll get a job with Fox. They like that profile.
Send him to the Courts Martial.
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Gene
Social climber
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Jun 24, 2010 - 08:05pm PT
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Bluey,
Either McChrystal or his staff made disparaging comments about those higher in the food chain. Do we agree so far?
If it was McChrystal who had loose lips, he's toast. His job was to accept and apply without reservation the policy as directed by the chain of command. The military can debate policy all it wants, but it must do so in house and privately, and then advise those in policy making positions. McChrystal's job was to say 'I think this, but I will do as directed, Sir.' Do we agree so far?
If it was McChrystal's staff that made all the comments that got him canned, then it’s obvious he (1) condoned what they were saying or (2) had no control over his staff. If (1), see above. If (2) then he can’t control his closest advisors, and therefore can't control squat, including the war that is his duty to prosecute according to the higher command’s policies.
Do we agree so far?
The man stepped on his dick. Whether it was intentional is another topic.
g
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