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EdwardT
Trad climber
Retired
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Jul 31, 2018 - 01:38pm PT
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Well said, Dingus.
Bigotry and intolerance reigns on both ends of the political spectrum.
One part of the problem is entitlement mentality has gone mainstream. A significant portion of the population thinks society should accommodate their special cause, regardless of it's popularity.
Looking at current outrages versus the serious challenges previous generations faced, it seems we've all become a bunch of whiny, selfish snowflakes.
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Contractor
Boulder climber
CA
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Jul 31, 2018 - 02:13pm PT
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Not really Edward. I'd say the biggest snowflakes are the uneducated white workers that are upset at the leveling of the playing field and haven't committed to the huge effort it takes to succeed now days. Mere survival is what most of the world's population fights for.
Anyways- Look at the damage the radical anti establishment hippies of the 60's and 70's did to the mainstream liberal agenda of the 80's and 90's.
We can only hope that the current reactionary sentiment left over from the 60's is listing our political ship at the most extreme angle from it's cental axis and we will see some righting soon before we capsize.
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John M
climber
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Jul 31, 2018 - 02:40pm PT
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Edward used the world "all" to describe both sides of the equation. Both groups have different things that they feel entitled to, but both the liberal mindset and the conservative mindset have a spectrum of entitlement.
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Contractor
Boulder climber
CA
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Jul 31, 2018 - 02:47pm PT
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This is true although I don't like clean water, fresh air and safe food to be lumped in as liberal entitlements.
Poor people felching welfare and Medicaid are not liberal notions anymore than corporate and big agriculture are conservative notions.
The snowflakes I mentioned up-post "the base" are unique in our current environment.
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John M
climber
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Jul 31, 2018 - 03:09pm PT
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This is true although I don't like clean water, fresh air and safe food to be lumped in as liberal entitlements.
where the conservative mindset starts to label them entitlements is when the powers that be start to become overbearing and laws become so restrictive that it starts to feel as though nothing can be done. The idea that we can't travel because it causes emissions that contribute to global warming. That crushes the spirit. So then the conservative mindset starts to view it as an entitlement that needs to be crushed, causing both sides to feel threatened. Oh my god, the left is going to make it impossible to do anything, oh my god the right is going to destroy the earth. This causes people to then gravitate further towards the extremes.
Somehow the agro all or nothing mindset has taken over the majority of conversation in this country. Respect has gone out the window. Perhaps it has always been that way, but it seems more open today. Likely because of our access to new forms of communication.
Edit: thanks Dingus..
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Jul 31, 2018 - 03:43pm PT
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Both groups have different things that they feel entitled to, but both the liberal mindset and the conservative mindset have a spectrum of entitlement.
Sense of entitlement is a problem. Just like the idea that you can continually call government the problem, rail against it, slash it budget, but then still expect FEMA/911 to respond perfectly to every problem, never mind you just go done slashing their budgets...
But I think the echo chamber and being able to dismiss inconvenient facts as fake news is a far, bigger problem.
Trump supporters don't have a monopoly on this, but it has taken over the Republican party far more than the Democrats.
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Contractor
Boulder climber
CA
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Jul 31, 2018 - 04:29pm PT
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Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary, said in an interview on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit meeting in Argentina this month that his department was studying whether it could use its regulatory powers to allow Americans to account for inflation in determining capital gains tax liabilities. The Treasury Department could change the definition of “cost” for calculating capital gains, allowing taxpayers to adjust the initial value of an asset, such as a home or a share of stock, for inflation when it sells. Dingus and any reasonable people- let's meet on the bridge from time to time do discuss how we best fight the usurper and their foreign allies. I say tooth and nail for our less fortunate fellow citizens.
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NutAgain!
Trad climber
South Pasadena, CA
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Topic Author's Reply - Jul 31, 2018 - 04:50pm PT
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I read about that too a few days ago... I recall something about a pre-screen for people who have frequently visited one of the countries on the “shady” list.
I’m not fundamentally against the idea of developing a scoring system to assess risk and be proactive in managing that risk. It is a logical way to approach a problem. There is also a problem with being fully transparent about the criteria because then the threats will adapt to not be detected in the threat model. So it’s not an easy problem to solve.
That said, solving the problem, or managing the risk of security violations, needs to be done in the context of what we risk losing with an uncaught threat vs. the societal costs of heavy-handed approaches to threat mitigation. Easy to say that, harder to do it. Whoever does that job should have the unusual combination of thick skin and empathy for others and a paranoid disposition.
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Fritz
Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
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Jul 31, 2018 - 05:47pm PT
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Ksolem: Per your graphs from the Mercatus Center. Since they are a Koch brothers funded conservative, & highly biased think-tank, I am looking elsewhere for how taxes affect tax revenues & GNP.
Here's some of the dirt on them.
https://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Mercatus_Center
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Ksolem
Trad climber
Monrovia, California
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Jul 31, 2018 - 06:31pm PT
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Koch brothers are staunch Libertarians.
FWIW they employ 120,000 people, 60k of them in the US.
Mercatus does not have opinions as an institution. It has people who research and write on things. So a lot of what you call dirt on Mercatus is opinions or findings of independent members.
The numbers used to create the graphs (as it says in the fine print) are from the IRS and the Census Bureau.
I'm curious Fritz, what is your take-away from reading the graphs?
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Ksolem
Trad climber
Monrovia, California
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Jul 31, 2018 - 06:55pm PT
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I love how this ALWAYS applies to a conservative think tank but NEVER to the worldwide scientific community.
Satan wins again!
I'm not sure what Satan has to do with it.
It applies to tenured professors at Universities. It applies to the op-ed page of many newspapers. It applies in good publications like The Economist. And it applies in liberal think tanks.
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Ksolem
Trad climber
Monrovia, California
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Jul 31, 2018 - 07:06pm PT
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The numbers are the numbers, and they're from the tax man.
Think about it this way. Want to increase tax revenues? Grow the GDP. 15% of a bigger GDP is more revenue.
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Ghost
climber
A long way from where I started
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Jul 31, 2018 - 07:18pm PT
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Bridging the divide...
Here's an example: Twenty years ago, I moved from Vancouver to Golden, a tiny town in the Canadian Rockies. Population was about 5,000, and, while it was a well known center of mountain recreation, it was still a tiny town in the Rockies.
I knew a couple of people there, and they introduced me to a few others, and, not long after I arrived, I was invited to a barbecue.
Lots of people, and they all seemed friendly. Including one guy who introduced himself, and then said: "So, you're from Vancouver?"
"Yes."
"So why do all you city people want to take our guns away?"
A lot of thoughts chased one another around my mind. Was I in favor of stricter laws about possession of firearms? Damn right. Did I want to take my new friend's guns away? No way.
Thinking about it, I recalled my childhood in a medium-size city in the Canadian prairies. My pacifistic father gave me my first rifle for my seventh birthday. By the time I left for the big city on the coast, I probably owned half a dozen rifles. I'd given them all to friends when I moved, because I couldn't see myself using them in Vancouver, but I sure didn't want to take any small-towner's guns away.
So why did he think I did?
Well, probably because I wanted to take guns away from pretty much everybody in Vancouver. Despite the generally held US belief that Vancouver is heaven-on-earth, a utopia of rainbows and unicorns, it is, in fact, a big port city, with a drug problem most in the US have no clue about. Guns? No f*#king way anyone in Vancouver should have a gun.
But that "anti-gun" sentiment, for me at least, ended at the city limits. I'd have fought right alongside the non-urban population against any move to take their guns away.
And, over a beer or two and some barbecue, he and I found a bridge over the divide. We agreed that easy access to firearms in big cities was a real problem, and that at least one big-city guy was in his corner on the subject of leaving rural and small-town folks with their guns.
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Fritz
Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
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Jul 31, 2018 - 07:23pm PT
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Ksolem: I think our difference here, is the Republican & conservative fascination with the "Laffer-Curve!" Per the graphs, you link to, I would have to study them in daylight, but I know that partly due to the graphs dating to 2010, "figures never lie, but liers do a lot of figuring."
Does reducing taxes grow the economy? Republicans & conservatives love the much-disputed Laffer-Curve, which argues that as tax rates go down, tax revenues go up, due to economic growth. It was proved wrong for the Reagan & Bush tax cuts, & will likely be proved wrong for the Trump tax cuts, as America’s Public Debt hugely increases
From NPR,
The Long Answer:
https://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2015/10/30/452905475/fact-check-do-tax-cuts-grow-the-economy
Tax cuts can boost economic growth. But the operative word there is "can." It's by no means an automatic or perfect relationship.
We know, we know. No one likes a fact check with a non-firm answer. So let's dig further into this idea.
There's a simple logic behind the idea that cutting taxes boosts growth: Cutting taxes gives people more money to spend as they like, which can boost economic growth.
Many — but by no means all— economists believe there's a relationship between cuts and growth. In a 2012 survey of top economists, the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business found that 35 percent thought cutting taxes would boost economic growth. A roughly equal share, 35 percent, were uncertain. Only 8 percent disagreed or strongly disagreed.
But in practice, it's not always clear that tax cuts themselves automatically boost the economy, according to a recent study.
"It is by no means obvious, on an ex ante basis, that tax rate cuts will ultimately lead to a larger economy," as the Brookings Institution's William Gale and Andrew Samwick wrote in a 2014 paper. Well-designed tax policy can increase growth, they wrote, but to do so, tax cuts have to come alongside spending cuts.
And even then, it can't just be any spending cuts — it has to be cuts to "unproductive" spending.
"I want to be clear — one can write down models where taxes generate big effects," Gale told NPR. But models are not the real world, he added. "The empirical evidence is quite different from the modeling results, and the empirical evidence is much weaker."
It's not just Gale. According to a 2012 report from the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service (referenced by the New York Times' David Leonhardt in a 2012 column), top marginal tax rates and economic growth have not appeared correlated over the past 60 years.
One other nuance — it depends on the type of tax cut. You can imagine how cutting taxes for lower earners might boost activity more than cutting the top marginal rate — lower-income Americans with an extra $100 are more likely to spend that money than a millionaire.
Likewise, the economic research firm Moody's found in 2008 that temporary tax cuts (like rebates) could boost GDP, but permanent ones had a much weaker effect. Meanwhile, boosting spending on programs like food stamps and unemployment had a stronger effect, they found.
In short, if your sole, ultimate goal is faster growth, tax cuts might not be the best policy.
Why It Matters, Part 1: What do these plans cost?
This might seem like a stupid question — of course economic growth matters! — but it matters doubly for these tax plans because it affects how much they end up costing. And most of the Republicans' plans look really, really expensive.
A lot of the conversation about revenue in this week's debate focused on estimates from the Tax Foundation, a right-leaning tax policy think tank in Washington, D.C., that has scored many of the GOP candidates' tax plans.
That group releases what are called static and dynamic scores. Dynamic scores are complicated: They take into account potential economic effects — for example, they assume that tax cuts can generate economic growth and therefore, revenue. Static scores are much simpler, ignoring those effects.
And that's a weakness of static scores — policies have effects. But dynamic scores involve the impossible task of predicting the future. A perfect dynamic score would be the best option, but no one knows how to do a perfect dynamic score. So dynamic scores are inherently uncertain as well, and there are a lot of ways to get them wrong.
To see this fight in action, look back to earlier this year, when the Congressional Budget Office, with a new GOP-appointed director, announced it would start issuing dynamic scores.
Or look at the Tax Foundation. Many (Gale included) say the group's dynamic scores are too generous, making policies like tax cuts look cheaper than they really are.
And here's where the bottom line comes in — even if you do believe the Tax Foundation's dynamic scores are way too generous, as of earlier this month, they found that one candidate (Rand Paul) comes out with a plan that won't slash revenue, while most of the other candidates will cut it by more than $1 trillion over 10 years.
Trump's plan, by this math, cuts revenue by $10 trillion over 10 years.
And from the NY Times:
From the NY Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/25/us/politics/white-house-economic-policy-arthur-laffer.html
Presidents Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush both cut taxes deeply on the promise of economic payoffs, putting aside concerns about deficits, which grew during their tenures. Mr. Trump at points during the campaign talked tough about deficits, promising not only to eliminate them but also to wipe out in just eight years the entire $19 trillion in national debt that has accumulated over the history of the United States — a pledge so wildly unrealistic that even he has since dropped it.
While a corporate tax rate cut of the dimension Mr. Trump envisions would reduce tax revenues by more than $2 trillion over the next 10 years, Mr. Mnuchin noted that an increase in economic growth of a little more than one percentage point would generate close to the same amount. The goal, he said, was to produce a sustained national growth rate of 3 percent, instead of the 1.8 percent now projected over the next decade. That would not include the cost of personal income tax cuts.
The question comes down to how the effect of a tax cut is measured. Under what is called static scoring, changes are judged without assuming any difference in growth. Under what is called dynamic scoring, assumptions are made about how much growth will change. “Under dynamic scoring, this will pay for itself,” Mr. Mnuchin said at a public forum last weekend. “Under static scoring, there will be short-term issues.”
Critics scoffed at the math. “There is not a shred of evidence to support the secretary’s pay-for-itself claim,” said Jared Bernstein, a top White House economics adviser under Mr. Obama. “Sure, significantly faster growth would spin off more revenues. But there’s simply no empirical linkage between tax cuts and growth that’s both a lot faster and sustained.”
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, an advocacy group focused on reducing deficits, said that Mr. Trump’s tax plan was more likely to increase growth by 0.2 percentage points than by the higher estimates Mr. Mnuchin forecast. “These tax cuts, of course, would not pay for themselves,” the group said in a statement. “As we’ve explained before, there is little evidence to suggest any major tax cut could pay for itself with economic growth alone.”
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Splater
climber
Grey Matter
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Jul 31, 2018 - 07:38pm PT
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Looking at those charts,
it shows average marginal income tax rate being 40% or higher
ever since 1978.
Please advise.
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rottingjohnny
Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
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Jul 31, 2018 - 07:42pm PT
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The threat of gun confiscation by the liberals just gave the 1% a big tax cut and the fearful gun owners nothing...Play it again Sam...
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Splater
climber
Grey Matter
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Jul 31, 2018 - 07:50pm PT
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More importantly, some articles showing who owns government.
The subversion of the people’s preferences in our supposedly democratic system was explored in a 2014 study by the political scientists Martin Gilens of Princeton and Benjamin I. Page of Northwestern. Four broad theories have long sought to answer a fundamental question about our government: Who rules? One theory, the one we teach our children in civics classes, holds that the views of average people are decisive. Another theory suggests that mass-based interest groups such as the AARP have the power. A third theory predicts that business groups such as the Independent Insurance Agents and Brokers of America and the National Beer Wholesalers Association carry the day. A fourth theory holds that policy reflects the views of the economic elite.
Gilens and Page tested those theories by tracking how well the preferences of various groups predicted the way that Congress and the executive branch would act on 1,779 policy issues over a span of two decades. The results were shocking. Economic elites and narrow interest groups were very influential: They succeeded in getting their favored policies adopted about half of the time, and in stopping legislation to which they were opposed nearly all of the time. Mass-based interest groups, meanwhile, had little effect on public policy. As for the views of ordinary citizens, they had virtually no independent effect at all. “When the preferences of economic elites and the stands of organized interest groups are controlled for, the preferences of the average American appear to have only a minuscule, near-zero, statistically non-significant impact upon public policy,” Gilens and Page wrote.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/03/america-is-not-a-democracy/550931/
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/04/how-corporate-lobbyists-conquered-american-democracy/390822/
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/04/mick-mulvaneys-guide-to-navigating-the-swamp/558890/
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Ksolem
Trad climber
Monrovia, California
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Jul 31, 2018 - 08:06pm PT
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I'm for reducing tax rates to zero. According to how you think you understand your charts, it would not change anything.
WTF?
There's nothing there suggesting such an idea would work. The graphs shows real tax rates over a period of time. Not zero taxes. That's idiotic.
In the interest of bridging the gap I'll leave it at that.
Fritz,
Stimulating the economy by lowering taxes is not about stimulating consumer spending. It's about increasing production.
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Ksolem
Trad climber
Monrovia, California
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Jul 31, 2018 - 08:22pm PT
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Looking at those charts,
it shows average marginal income tax rate being 40% or higher
ever since 1978.
Please advise.
From Tax Policy Center:
The average tax rate is the total amount of tax divided by total income. For example, if a household has a total income of $100,000 and pays taxes of $15,000, the household’s average tax rate is 15 percent. The marginal tax rate is the incremental tax paid on incremental income. If a household were to earn an additional $10,000 in wages on which $1,530 of payroll tax and $1,500 of income tax was paid, the household’s marginal tax rate would be 30.3 percent.
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