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dirtbag
climber
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Matt, they'll either (a) ignore it or (b) fabricate some other BS threat.
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Chaz
Trad climber
So. Cal.
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Or (c) take credit for making it happen.
Maybe ratcheting up the beligerent rhetoric is paying off.
My bet is the Iranians are waiting for The Obama Administration to get in The White House before really cranking up the nukes.
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tooth
Mountain climber
B.C.
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Fatty no doubt will answer,
"there will be boots on the ground in _."
AKA: I can't follow logic, but fighting fixes everything that used to be peaceful.
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Matt
Trad climber
primordial soup
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Topic Author's Reply - Dec 3, 2007 - 03:03pm PT
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...or maybe the quit trying to make a nook in '03 because they knew from the get-go that we'd just handed them at least 1/2 of iraq on a platter.
(credit where credit is due)
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TradIsGood
Half fast climber
the Gunks end of the country
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I wonder what Germany's intelligence report on us read?
The Manhattan Project It only took us 5 or 7 years depending on when you started the clock.
Today, 60+ years later (nearly 70 from the precursor program at Columbia), allegedly this multi-agency assessment says that it would take Iranians longer to build a nuclear weapon than it took us.
Hmm. Go figure! Don't read this in support of a military option, merely as a reflection on scientific and engineering issues - most of which are very well understood.
Not so many years ago a Princeton undergraduate's Senior Thesis was classified after he published a prescription for building a bomb. He had no access to classified research. The paper was reviewed by people who could presumably know whether it was flawed.
I think that the Iranians should use nuclear power for electricity. All countries should. That said, if that is all they intend, complying with IEAE's requirements should be easy enough for them to swallow.
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UncleDoug
Social climber
N. lake Tahoe
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Bump...
For Jeff's sake.
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dirtbag
climber
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That's exactly the kind of speculative, what-if, WMD Bullshit that persuaded some gullible Senators to approve the Iraq War.
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murcy
climber
San Fran Cisco
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i call bullshit on the princeton thesis thing. john aristotle phillips' paper was indeed the object of paranoid overreaction but there is zero reason to think he was anywhere close to being able to design a bomb.
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tooth
Mountain climber
B.C.
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Fattrad,
I can't believe that you said you turn over the intelligence and leadership of taking your country to war to Israel. Is that not the same as loosing control of the sovernty of your own nation? A real American would leave the decision to go to war in Congress' hands, no one else.
Unbelievable. Even I couldn't have predicted that answer!!
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TradIsGood
Half fast climber
the Gunks end of the country
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Murcy - Thanks. I had seen references to that in a number of places including books.
How about this one? http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/news/20030701/nth-country.pdf
I just started reading it. That work was completed in April 1967. Back then there was almost no easy access to computers outside universities. Dartmouth had a time-sharing system up and running in New England area. All others had only card driven batch systems.
Today you can buy a computer for $400 that has more computational power than the computing centers of a few dozen universities at the time. On top of that, you could do the computations with nobody being the wiser.
Consider that the Manhattan Project had hundreds of PhD's performing calculations using slide rules, mechanical calculators and published tables of trigonometric functions. I would hazard a guess that a half-dozen PhDs familiar with expertise in nuclear physics could replicate the calculation work done in 4 years in a matter of a few weeks (just programming time). Then seconds to a few minutes of computation.
It would be easier to believe a report that said they had capability than one that said they would not get it, if for no other reason than finding evidence is more compelling than saying it does not exist - which really only means that you have not been able to find it.
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paganmonkeyboy
climber
mars...it's near nevada...
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You will let us know *before* the upcoming false flag op, right FT ?
Over the horizon...with our men and women in the middle...sweeeeeeet.
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Karl Baba
Trad climber
Yosemite, Ca
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So this report comes from all our intelligence agencies combined. The president really has no other source of information. I'm sure the Mossaud would share any intel against Iran with our spys they had.
and Fatty wants to bomb em anyway?
Shame
Peace
Karl
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tooth
Mountain climber
B.C.
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If the Mossad ever wanted to kill a few thousand American soldiers, all they would have to do is give false info to bush and fatty, and since they keep making the same mistakes again and again, they would send more troops to war, AGAIN! Friend or foe? Assuring, isn't it, having guys like these around?
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ahad aham
Trad climber
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Bush, the man of peace, speaking today;
"I view this report as a warning signal that they had the program, they halted the program," Bush said. "The reason why it's a warning signal is they could restart it."
& Israei defense minister Barak, never one to miss an opportunity at avoiding conflict;
"It seems Iran in 2003 halted for a certain period of time its military nuclear program but as far as we know it has probably since revived it,"
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TradIsGood
Half fast climber
the Gunks end of the country
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In other news....
Mohammed Ali Hosseini announced, on state TV in Iran, that they never had such a program.
A spokesman for Putin offered to supply fuel for their first nuclear power station aiming to deter Iran from running their own enrichment program.
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screelover
Mountain climber
Canuckistan
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Fatty,
Your analysis always seems to reach the same conclusion - the only way to determine if Iran has a weapons program is to bomb the crap out if them.
Sort of trial by ordeal, right?
So who is stuck in the middle ages here?
In the immortal words of Monty Python,
"No one ever expects the Spanish Inquisition".
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TradIsGood
Half fast climber
the Gunks end of the country
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Of course we can't believe everything that any side says publicly.
It is all a very high stakes game. Like poker. You can check, raise, call, or fold. Sometimes you raise on a bluff. Sometimes they do. Sometimes you have to fold a good hand, etc.
Anybody who never bluffs, is either not in the game, or poor.
As I see it, right now, there has been a flop. Iran has working centrifuge cascade. We can knock them out now, with a bluff. Or we can go to fourth street - delay with negotiations. And maybe even on to the river.
Or we can go all in. But for we peons to judge absent the real intelligence is like watching poker without knowing anybody's cards.
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ahad aham
Trad climber
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like the "real" intelligence that came out of Iraq?
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TradIsGood
Half fast climber
the Gunks end of the country
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No, ahad.
Real intelligence is who, what, when, where, how obtained, when obtained, by whom, whether it has been confirmed independently, etc. Just like poker. There are things you know, e.g. what your opponent bet, and things you don't, like what he is holding.
And there is position, too!
Not what is published. If we published intelligence, we'd have none.
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