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ground_up
Trad climber
mt. hood /baja
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Topic Author's Original Post - Jan 14, 2015 - 05:24pm PT
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It will be interesting to see where it goes from here...
How long till it gets a second , how long till IAD ?
Better start doing some pull ups.
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Sula
Trad climber
Pennsylvania
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Jan 14, 2015 - 05:35pm PT
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Very hard to say, but seconds usually come sooner and go quicker than expected. I'm guessing the idea might soon be percolating in the brain of a certain long-necked Czech dude.
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Jaybro
Social climber
Wolf City, Wyoming
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Jan 14, 2015 - 05:35pm PT
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Some twenty three year old lad bent on recognition is polishing His/her Lance right now...
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climbski2
Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
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Jan 14, 2015 - 05:38pm PT
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^ I hope so
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climbski2
Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
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Jan 14, 2015 - 05:40pm PT
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Doubt he is interested. His buddies did good. Plus he isn't quite as good a climber at that level.
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coolrockclimberguy69
climber
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Jan 14, 2015 - 05:42pm PT
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2nd in 2018, probably by a couple of unknown Euros, probably not alpine-style tho
IAD in 2043, by someone who, at this very moment, has a poopy diaper.
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Oplopanax
Mountain climber
The Deep Woods
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Jan 14, 2015 - 05:44pm PT
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I see Alpinist is calling it a VII. Thought that by the book (Deuce) you couldn't have a VII in anywhere as easy access as El Cap? Wilderness like Baffin or Himalaya only?
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Clint Cummins
Trad climber
SF Bay area, CA
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Jan 14, 2015 - 05:59pm PT
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how many free ascents on the Captain have had second ascents, period?
Especially the stuff Tommy has put up over the past decade and a half. Tommy has freed 4 routes which have not had second free ascents:
 Lurking Fear (2000, with Beth Rodden)
West Buttress (2003, with Beth Rodden)
Dihedral Wall (2004)
Magic Mushroom (2008, with Justen Sjong) (except for one repeat by Tommy)
Tommy freed 1 route, which was repeated recently:
The Shaft (2001, with Nick Sagar), repeated in 2014 by Tobias Wolf and Thomas Herring, and also by Alex Honnold
Tommy did the second free ascent of 1 route, which has not been freed since:
Zodiac (2003)
Tommy did the second free ascent of 2 routes, which were repeated recently:
El Corazon (2007, with Beth Rodden), repeated in 2013 by Tobias Wolf and Stephan Isensee
The Nose (2005, with Beth Rodden), repeated in 2014 by Jorg Verhoeven
Left out are routes with several repeats, such as Tommy's first time free climbing El Cap - Salathe' Wall (1999)
http://web.stanford.edu/%7Eclint/yos/longhf.htm
Current hardest El Cap free routes by pitch count:
Free Dawn: 7-8 5.14, 10 5.13
Magic Mushroom: 1 5.14, 10 5.13
Dihedral Wall: 1 5.14, 8 5.13
As for when it might get repeated (by someone other than Tommy and Kevin),
it will likely take somebody with skills, motivation, and time.
Maybe someone who hasn't freed El Cap before, but has these things, like Kevin.
Or maybe someone who has freed El Cap before, via one of the 5.14 routes, like Jorg Verhoeven, Beth Rodden, Justen Sjong, or Lynn Hill (I'm willing to count the Nose as 5.14).
There's also Tobias Wolf, who has done early repeats of several El Cap routes.
I'm going to guesstimate a 50% chance of it being done in the next 10 years.
So my forecast for how long it will likely take before it's repeated is 10 years.
How much time will it take them? Tommy worked on / tried it for 8 years, and Kevin for 6. http://web.stanford.edu/%7Eclint/yos/longhf.htm#freedawn
Is someone likely to walk up and do it over 2 months?
That seems unlikely. Probably it will take attempts over more than one year. The narrow weather window (November - December) is also a factor in this.
And the flip side, what's next for Tommy (besides his planned Patagonia trip) and for Kevin?
Maybe after pulling down all their gear, relax for awhile. Think about it later.
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mouse from merced
Trad climber
The finger of fate, my friends, is fickle.
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Jan 14, 2015 - 06:06pm PT
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Going out on a limb, I predict that it will NOT be done by Robbins & Lauria.
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tuolumne_tradster
Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
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Jan 14, 2015 - 06:08pm PT
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TM plans to free solo it as soon as the lads get all their equipment off the wall ;-)
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bhilden
Trad climber
Mountain View, CA/Boulder, CO
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Jan 14, 2015 - 06:17pm PT
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I believe that Caldwell and Honnold are off to Patagonia soon so I don't think Alex will be getting on the route for a while. Pretty cagey move by Caldwell if you ask me:-)
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survival
Big Wall climber
Terrapin Station
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Jan 14, 2015 - 09:17pm PT
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I'm guessing the idea might soon be percolating in the brain of a certain long-necked Czech dude.
Not enough bolts....heh....
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Mike Bolte
Trad climber
Planet Earth
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Jan 14, 2015 - 09:27pm PT
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not too many folks climb 14d granite routes
Clint's summary up there is quite a statement about Tommy's skills
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MisterE
Gym climber
Bishop, CA
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Jan 14, 2015 - 09:43pm PT
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This thread already?
Jesus, Man - give the armchairing a rest, wouldya?
Let the moment be.
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GDavis
Social climber
SOL CAL
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Jan 14, 2015 - 09:51pm PT
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A lot of that will be answered by it's legacy. Dihedral wall has yet seen a second but had none of the fanfare. Perhaps some unknown gnarly Euro decides to start rapping in and checking out cruxes? Could be 5 years, but I'd be surprised any earlier.
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Darwin
Trad climber
Seattle, WA
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Jan 14, 2015 - 10:27pm PT
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Proud proud ascent, so calm down Mister E. The rest of you, don't laugh at me, but is Chris Sharma still in the game for this type of climb? [no]
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elcap-pics
Big Wall climber
Crestline CA
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Jan 14, 2015 - 10:34pm PT
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My guess would be 3 decades. The time,effort and expense required is beyond most climbers and if one had time and such then they would most likely want to do their own free route. This climb is way ahead of its time...Like many of the Kohl aid routes which were done years ago and yet see little action these days.
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MisterE
Gym climber
Bishop, CA
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Jan 14, 2015 - 10:38pm PT
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The first ascent is just a few hours in the bag, and people that will never "free" climb the damn thing are already raising the bar.
It just seems silly to me, sorry if I offended.
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Guangzhou
Trad climber
Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
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Jan 14, 2015 - 10:54pm PT
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No, silly would be asking about the first One Day Free Ascent.
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Vitaliy M.
Mountain climber
San Francisco
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Jan 14, 2015 - 11:04pm PT
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Honestly don't think it will be done in a day free. Would be awesome if someone e can prove me wrong though.
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