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Jerry Dodrill
climber
Sebastopol, CA
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Topic Author's Original Post - Nov 17, 2010 - 11:44pm PT
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They are on Wino tower and trying to decide if they are safe to wait out the storm there or move somewhere safer. Does anyone have storm beta/experience for Wino Towers? Please advise.
Werner said on the other thread: "I wouldn't want to be on Wino Towers in any storm." Please elaborate.
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TGT
Social climber
So Cal
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Nov 17, 2010 - 11:52pm PT
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From checking out the satellite for the pacific this could end up being a major storm with LOTS of precip.
Check out the tropical moisture being sucked north and the cold front moving south.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/flash-rb.html
To early to tell yet, but I wouldn't bet my life on it being a minor event.
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Captain...or Skully
Big Wall climber
leading the away team, but not in a red shirt!
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Nov 18, 2010 - 12:00am PT
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Look at the streaks on the Wall. Water flows there. Or to there. It's not a tucked spot. It would be a poor place to try to wait something out. Especially the first real storm of the season.
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Dr.Sprock
Boulder climber
I'm James Brown, Bi-atch!
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Nov 18, 2010 - 12:09am PT
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come down and get baked, guys,
i will buy you a double xl pepperoni pizza after we sit around the fire and get baked.
then i will help you with the tough stuff next spring.
if that rock gets wet, you will be like a three legged turtle trying to catch a rabbit.
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rottingjohnny
Sport climber
mammoth lakes ca
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Nov 18, 2010 - 12:30am PT
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Come to your senses men...come down and get baked like the good doctor said or stay up there and get hosed..
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WBraun
climber
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Nov 18, 2010 - 12:34am PT
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LOL you guys are killin me.
Anyways ....
Jerry Wino Towers is completely exposed to the elements.
I thought I saw the team have their fixed ropes still reaching to the ground?
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Peter Haan
Trad climber
San Francisco, CA
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Nov 18, 2010 - 12:41am PT
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Some thoughts:
Wino is unprotected. Looking at the area via
http://www.xrez.com/yose_proj/yose_deepzoom/index.html
and zooming in like crazy, it looks like it gets hosed from above, maybe not really concentrated runoff but nonetheless, streams. The spot is also windy and turbulent. And there aren't any hiding places for hundreds of feet. Maybe something lower?
I am thinking they have to decide if there are enough good climbing days in the next week and a half to finish and make it worthwhile sticking it out. They must have heavy duty flies on the ledge(s) and can make it but it will be rough and the coming blast looks to be 36 hours or more and then crap off and on for days. Weather reports don’t show high winds--- that sure helps. There may be issues of falling ice... and the route from there on up isn’t truly shielded from icefall. It is going to be in the low 20’s up there.
It is a tough decision but then that’s what those guys are good at doing. New twist.
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chez
Social climber
chicago ill
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Nov 18, 2010 - 12:42am PT
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Lookin like a pineapple connection. Gonna be cold and wet.
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tom woods
Gym climber
Bishop, CA
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Nov 18, 2010 - 12:45am PT
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It sucks to back off something because of a weather report, rather than the weather itself, but sometimes it's the right call.
Snow levels are supposed to be low with this one. Ice falling might be an issue. Plus- will it be dry enough to send when the storm clears?
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Dr.Sprock
Boulder climber
I'm James Brown, Bi-atch!
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Nov 18, 2010 - 12:48am PT
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yes, free showers at the Holiday Wino,
if your lucky, your shower will start at 4 in the morning, just when you finally get so tired you can sleep.
currently, our hot water heater is on the fritz, so we beg for your mercy,
and the matress might be a little hard, just watch out for those weird bed bugs they just discovered crawling beneath the rocks, some type of mutated scorpion, with dealy fangs and an appetite for burned out climbers,
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Peter Haan
Trad climber
San Francisco, CA
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Nov 18, 2010 - 12:51am PT
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They can make it. Others have too and so did the FA party, repeatedly. The real question is whether they should bother to in the hope there are enough good climbing days after this front arrives and passes or lessens. They are cached to the gills. The wall really heats up quick and is a great place to be in winter but it is so unprotected. Icefall from above...
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kjorgeson
climber
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Nov 18, 2010 - 12:56am PT
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Mainly worried about icefall after the storm and wondering if anyone has direct experience with Wino Tower in this scenario. Thanks. Cheers from pitch 12
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mongrel
Trad climber
Truckee, CA
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Nov 18, 2010 - 12:57am PT
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Second that. The storm is supposed to be a major one, 1-2 ft of snow above 6,000 ft, and very windy; which specifically means large amounts of ice will form everywhere up top, including places not necessarily subject to concentrated drainage. Bad enough to be camped out right about at the freeze line (above it would probably be better!), but the fusillades of massive icicles would be a problem. It's a great show if you ever have the luck to be skiing around the valley floor after a foot of new, but it could be ugly to be stationary somewhere up there.
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213
climber
Where the Froude number often >> 1
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Nov 18, 2010 - 01:01am PT
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First big cold wave of the year!
Winds will start to pick up tomorrow afternoon and will increase as the momentum arrives with the 120+kt upper level jet 12km NAM at sjsu has a gridpoint near Valley and shows 700mb flow right up valley at 30-50+ knots (sustained value). 850mb chart shows barrier jet forming along sacramento valley at 20-40knots. Haven't spent enough time in valley to know how such conditions will translate high on the big stone. But it seems as though a northerly barrier jet coupled with strong midlevel sw'erly momentum would make for kite-friendly conditions up there. moisture arrives mid to late day friday and really starts nuking saturday.
Cold front arrives late on 18th-early morning 19th and drops 850mb temps to 32F late on 20th. Snow levels will thus be starting around 4k (850mb is roughly 4000ft ) and drop as cold air advection continues after frontal passage and until full saturation of atmosphere occurs. precipitable water is not super impressive (25-35mm h20) so total accumulations will be limited to a couple feet (more to the north) or so feet despite vicious upper level divergence associated with the jet exit region and orthogonal flow to the crest (good for orographic uplifting).
SO! If they can send it tomorrow/early on 19th GO FOR IT! But if not, this will be a blustery, chilly, snowy one! It will be brutally cold after this one passes by, so get your puffy's out!
Hope this helps!
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elcap-pics
Big Wall climber
Crestline CA
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Nov 18, 2010 - 01:02am PT
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Down...
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213
climber
Where the Froude number often >> 1
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Nov 18, 2010 - 01:09am PT
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Icefall forecast!
Hmmm, no direct experience with this, but here's my best guess. Ice will likely form given the cold conditions and relatively warm ground surface and residual thermal inertia of the sierra nevada batholith. Snow will contact the warm surface, melt, and ice up under cold air temperatures. I do not know the degree of exposure to falling ice at Wino Tower. But, temperatures will be cold after the storm and hopefully this will reduce the quantity of falling ice (versus if we had very warm post storm conditions). I think another benefit of the storm starting cold is that there will not be a lot of liquid water available to form ice, it will mainly be due to melting snow on rock. So, total ice accumulation may be limited by this. I wish I had more experience seeing how and under what conditions the ice forms atop the captain!!!! Good luck boys, be safe, and give 'er!
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bergbryce
Mountain climber
Oakland
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Nov 18, 2010 - 01:26am PT
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Huh, sounds like they might be needing some ice tools and screws. Did they pack that?
Whenever I have to bail from even a stupid hike I remind myself that that hike/route/mountain isn't going anywhere.
I also know bailing for me has basically no implications unlike them. Best of luck whatever they do.
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ß Î Ø T Ç H
climber
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Nov 18, 2010 - 01:39am PT
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Ice from El Cap falls off in whispy little sheets. At most, they'd need like some aspirin if something hit them.
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mongrel
Trad climber
Truckee, CA
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Nov 18, 2010 - 02:04am PT
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I'm afraid I disagree with Biotch: I have seen quite massive quantities of giant icicles and sheets fall from El Cap and all other cliffs in the Valley on the day following a storm that dumped about 12-16 inches on the floor. And Mike, above, is right that they frisbee around and hit all over the place. I would think the only truly safe place from the ice fall is under a large roof. Unfamiliar with Dawn Roof but presumably it's a good one.
213's weather info is fantastically detailed but empirically I can affirm that ice will indeed form, large amounts of it, no matter what the storm temps. Whether this is rime, from stuff mashed into the wall by high winds, or meltw#ter from the warmth of the rock (which does not just go away in a few hours of low storm temps), or a combination, or just the paradox of weird stuff that water does, I cannot explain. But it will be there in quantity, and bright sun even with low temps will be enough to send it crashing down (see above). And anyways, whether climbing or bailing, they're going to have to wait for sun and/or warmth, so whatever ice is there, will be coming down.
I see KJ posting up above: if you are seeing all this discussion, make whatever decision seems to make sense from ground 12, but everyone here THINKS YOU GUYS ARE PHENOMENAL for conceiving of, and working, this climb. Damn, we love seeing people get after it like this. Best of luck whatever and we all know you'll send, now or later.
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nutjob
Trad climber
Berkeley, CA
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Nov 18, 2010 - 02:15am PT
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He who fights and runs away lives to fight another day.
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