Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

Understanding the connections between climate, ecosystems, and society during historical and modern climatic transitions requires annual resolution records with high fidelity climate signals. Many studies link the demise of complex societies with deteriorating climate conditions, but few have investigated the connection between climate, surplus energy, and the rise of empires. Inner Asia in the 13th century underwent a major political transformation requiring enormous energetic inputs that altered human history. The Mongol Empire, centered on the city of Karakorum, became the largest contiguous land empire in world history (Fig. 1 inset). Powered by domesticated grazing animals, the empire grew at the expense of sedentary agriculturalists across Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe. Although some scholars and conventional wisdom agree that dry conditions spurred the Mongol conquests, little paleoenvironmental data at annual resolution are available to evaluate the role of climate in the development of the Mongol Empire.

Here we present a 2600 year tree-ring reconstruction of warm-season, self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI), a measure of water balance, derived from 107 live and dead Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) trees growing on a Holocene lava flow in central Mongolia. Trees growing on the Khorgo lava flow today are stunted and widely spaced, occurring on microsites with little to no soil development. These trees are extremely water-stressed and their radial growth is well-correlated with both drought (scPDSI) and grassland productivity (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)). Our reconstruction, calibrated and validated on instrumental June-September scPDSI (1959-2009) accounts for 55.8% of the variability in the regional scPDSI when 73% of the annual rainfall occurs.

Our scPDSI reconstruction places historic and modern social change in Mongolia in the context of the range of climatic variability during the Common Era. Our record, in combination with a gridded temperature reconstruction, shows that the climate during the conquests of Chinggis Khaan’s (Ghengis Khan) 13th century Mongol Empire was warm and persistently wet. Tree-ring and meteorological data combined suggest that the early 21st century drought was the hottest drought in the last 1000 years, consistent with model projections of warming in Inner Asia. Future warming may overwhelm increases in precipitation leading to similar “heat droughts”, with potentially severe consequences for modern Mongolia.

The bottom line is that you take precautions, early, based on your best understanding of the aircraft to prevent failure before it happens, and you don't wait for the failure to happen because you may not survive the failure.

which is admirable behavior, and totally understandable

the chief included.