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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Dec 12, 2013 - 02:03am PT
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Yes i read "the models agree better with the Stephens et al analysis than previous estimates". This brings me to the question of which of the many analyses are superior? The Wild et al analysis you posted and kindly re-posted seems to say " Table 4 illustrates there is no clear tendency towards reduced over estimations in the newer CMIP 5 models", in reference to incoming solar radiation. What gives Ed, after many billions of dollars are spent in studying and modeling, with estimations and values all over the board, there is no agreement. If the incoming radiation in the models are overestimated, as Wild et al claims, what does that say about the other values entered into the models and the results coming from the runs. Bloviating i may be, but their are also legions of climate scientists bloviating all across the spectrum. The public deserves better after tens of billions of their hard earned tax money is spent.
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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Dec 12, 2013 - 07:37am PT
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Thanks for that,Chiloe.Cheers Wilbeer.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Dec 12, 2013 - 09:53am PT
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My god man, with a 5% margin of error i would have been out of business years ago. With a 5% error rate my homes would have been unsaleable. If you were a mechanic and finished an engine rebuild and had 5% of the parts remaining from the original you'd be laughed out of the shop. What is 5% of of 40 billion dollars ( an amount likely to have been spent in CAGW research over the last decade alone), let's see -S200,000,000.00 dollars, and all for an uncertainty that far out weighs the value of the hyped effect. Can we please get an adult to supervise these climate disaster kids.The whole affair is pretty shameful Ed.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Dec 12, 2013 - 12:01pm PT
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And how many hundreds of billions will that cost jackass? I get that science is a messy trial and error business but can they please get this reality to conform with the models. People are freezing to death in this catastrophically warming world. Jesus H. Christ it was the fifth consecutive subzero morning here in NV.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Dec 12, 2013 - 12:58pm PT
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Look Ed, I come down here in the winter to escape the so called arctic warming that manifested itself as an average temp decrease of 2.4 f over the last dozen years at 19 out of 20 alaska weather stations. Now my pipes are freezing on my remodels in the midst of this catastrophic warming and i feel let down and pissed off. How many millions of people , all on the public dole,are studying this CAGW non problem. Cant somebidy get them all together and direct the hot air they are blowing towards some actual warming?
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Dec 12, 2013 - 01:17pm PT
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JEleazarian
Trad climber
Fresno CA
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Dec 12, 2013 - 01:40pm PT
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My god man, with a 5% margin of error i would have been out of business years ago. With a 5% error rate my homes would have been unsaleable. If you were a mechanic and finished an engine rebuild and had 5% of the parts remaining from the original you'd be laughed out of the shop. What is 5% of of 40 billion dollars ( an amount likely to have been spent in CAGW research over the last decade alone), let's see -S200,000,000.00 dollars, and all for an uncertainty that far out weighs the value of the hyped effect. Can we please get an adult to supervise these climate disaster kids.The whole affair is pretty shameful Ed.
The 5% margin of error would make you exceedingly rich playing the stock market, but wipe you out selling gasoline. I wish my economic forecasts could have that kind of accuracy. I'd have a monopoly on the market.
I doubt anyone seriously doubts that the margin of error increases for predictions of complex systems. That shouldn't mean you ignore the predictions. Rather, it should mean that you consider the probable range of outcomes. It bothers me to read arguments to the effect that if we predict with uncertainty, we should ignore the predictions. Any experienced card player knows better.
John
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Dec 12, 2013 - 01:42pm PT
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"aint nuthin changed" Dingus. The world isnt getting warmer, nor following "models"
They still haven't fired Greg Stock.
From the Lyell glacier I hardly Knew ye-
Today's LA Times interview with Greg Stock:
Yosemite's largest ice mass is melting fast
Lyell Glacier has shrunk 62% over the past century and hasn't moved in years. It's a key source of water in the park, and scientists say it will be gone in 20 years.
The photo on the left of Lyell Glacier in Yosemite National Park was taken by the U.S. Geological Survey in 1883; the one on the right was taken by park geologist Greg Stock in late September.
Credit: (U.S. Geological Survey; Greg Stock)
By Louis Sahagun
October 1, 2013, 9:12 p.m.
Climate change is taking a visible toll on Yosemite National Park, where the largest ice mass in the park is in a death spiral, geologists say.
During an annual trek to the glacier deep in Yosemite's backcountry last month, Greg Stock, the park's first full-time geologist, found that Lyell Glacier had shrunk visibly since his visit last year, continuing a trend that began more than a century ago.
Lyell has dropped 62% of its mass and lost 120 vertical feet of ice over the last 100 years. "We give it 20 years or so of existence — then it'll vanish, leaving behind rocky debris," Stock said.
The Sierra Nevada Mountains have roughly 100 remaining glaciers, two of them in Yosemite. The shrinkage of glaciers across the Sierra is also occurring around the world. Great ice sheets are dwindling, prompting concerns about what happens next to surrounding ecological systems after perennial rivulets of melted ice disappear.
"We've looked at glaciers in California, Colorado, Wyoming, Washington and elsewhere, and they're all thinning because of warming temperatures and less precipitation," said Andrew Fountain, professor of geology and geography at Portland State University in Oregon. "This is the beginning of the end of these things."
If carbon dioxide levels continue to rise, the earth will eventually become ice-free, according to a study by Ken MacLeod, a professor of geological sciences at the University of Missouri, published in the October issue of the journal Geology.
Research by scientists at NASA, the U.S. Geological Survey and UC Davis suggests that absorption of sunlight in snow by industrial air pollution including soot, or black carbon, is also causing snow and ice to melt faster.
Yosemite's other glacier, Maclure, is also shrinking, but it remains alive and continues to creep at a rate of about an inch a day.
Lyell, however, hasn't budged. It is the second largest glacier in the Sierra Nevada and the headwater of the Tuolumne River watershed, but it no longer fits the definition of a glacier because it has ceased moving.
"Lyell Glacier is stagnant — a clear sign it's dying," Stock said. "Our research indicates it stopped moving about a decade ago."
Of particular concern is the effect on Yosemite's Tuolumne Meadows. After two years of drought, many of the streams that nourish the picturesque meadowlands have gone dry. The one exception, however, is the Lyell Fork of the Tuolumne River, which is sustained by runoff from Lyell and Maclure glaciers.
"When the glaciers are gone, there will be no steady supplies of water in that drainage," Stock said. "We don't know what the impacts of that will be on plants and animals that evolved with these ice flows."
Future research projects will attempt to use climate shifts chronicled in the widths of tree rings in nearby forests to create computer models that will show the shrinkage of Yosemite's glaciers over the last 300 years — and help predict when they will disappear entirely.
Scientists also want to know why Lyell has stopped moving when neighboring Maclure, which is half the size it was a century ago, continues to advance at the same rate it did when naturalist John Muir and his friend Galen Clark hammered wooden stakes into its icy crust in 1872 to prove that glaciers are "living" because they move and alter the landscape as they do so.
"Glaciers tend to flow like honey down a plate, or slide over meltwater beneath them," Stock said. "We suspect Lyell just isn't thick enough anymore to drive a downhill motion."
Overall, "the rate of glacier retreat has accelerated since about 2000," Stock said. "Eventually, there'll be nothing left."
That's already happened at least once in Yosemite, geologists say. Black Mountain Glacier, which Muir discovered, surveyed and declared "living" in 1871, was gone by the mid-1980s.
louis.sahagun@latimes.com
Copyright © 2013, Los Angeles Times
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Dec 12, 2013 - 01:49pm PT
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does anything 'work' in these discussion groups?
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Dec 12, 2013 - 03:04pm PT
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" This lack of precise knowledge of surface energy fluxes profoundly affects our ability to understand how Earths climate responds to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases". -Graeme Stephans et al 2012.
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
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Dec 12, 2013 - 03:43pm PT
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Donini, don't you no nothing.The earth is flat & about 4,000 years old & nothing has ever changed it's always been just like this.
If it wasn't flat you'd fall off.
O and everyone still rides the original bike, harley. cause there just the fastest thing on the planet.lol
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Dec 12, 2013 - 04:28pm PT
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I guess you demonstrated a better than 95 percent rate against catastrophic failure of the stockpile you purportedly sit on. eh Ed? Otherwise your ass would have been vaporized long ago. Ron, all these stubborn facts and "just weather"events are consistent with AGW. Don't you get that?
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Dec 12, 2013 - 04:36pm PT
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The prarie dogs ain't the ones sucking massive amounts of prime heat time air ,,whatever the f*#k that is.
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Dec 12, 2013 - 04:41pm PT
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jibberish.
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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Dec 12, 2013 - 07:42pm PT
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All Comedy ,101% of the time.
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TGT
Social climber
So Cal
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Dec 12, 2013 - 11:31pm PT
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and a maintenance schedule that strives to reduce the likelihood of failure.
No, eliminate the possibility of a failure.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Dec 13, 2013 - 12:03am PT
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Our dear professor has delusional certitude in his (mis)understanding of all things science to achieve supremacy in all arguments in which he engages. What does Jackass Freud call that, oh yeah - hubris. EDIT- No not hubris, just supreme stubbornness.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Dec 13, 2013 - 12:35am PT
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Here's a question for you Ed, and i won't argue with your answer at all. With the microscopic size of today's circuit boards i understand that computing is subject to error from quantum uncertainty. What is the accepted performance uncertainty rate? Do supercomputers working with identical software, hardware, and identical data entry, always produce the same end solution?
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