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Jorroh
climber
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"into a world-wide financial powerhouse"
Thats pretty funny. A "powerhouse" so powerful that it needed a $250 billion donation (thats nearly $1000 from every person in the USA) in order to stay afloat.
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Lorenzo
Trad climber
Portland Oregon
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Good find. Bush thinks we shouldn't criminalize good people and Reagan thinks building a wall is dumb.
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HighDesertDJ
Trad climber
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Topic Author's Reply - Jan 8, 2016 - 06:59am PT
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The US added 292,000 jobs in December bringing the total net job growth to 2.65 million for 2015. The unemployment rate stayed at 5.0% because lots of new people started looking for work and began counting as "unemployed" again. Unfortunately, this comes just as China's economy continues to falter and threatens global economic growth. You'll note that despite the media reports and political rhetoric, America's economy has been faring much, much better than pretty much any other developed nation.
*edit* The jobs numbers for October/November got revised upwards a total of 50,000 as well.
Two Iraqi refugees in America were arrested on terrorism related charges after they were found to have traveled to Syria to fight with ISIS. (When will Obama finally focus on terror?)
A FOX News gaggle accused Obama of faking tears during his address on gun control and criticized him for not doing more about gun control earlier in his Presidency:
[Click to View YouTube Video]
Maine's contentious Republican governor with a hard libertarian bent said a thing:
Two men quietly holding signs ("America's already great" and "God bless President Obama" respectively) were verbally harassed and then had their signs snatched and torn by people sitting near them. They then continued to quietly sit until security threw them out a few minutes later.
[Click to View YouTube Video]
The Department of Defense accidentally sent a Hellfire missile to Cuba instead of to Europe for a training exercise back in 2014. We've been trying for a year to get Cuba to give it back but it is apparently a huge loss of weapons technology.
The widow of Chris Kyle (of American Sniper fame) told Obama that "we can't outlaw murder" as part of prelude to a question about gun control.
[Click to View YouTube Video]
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Larry Nelson
Social climber
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HDDJ,
Would you advocate for an open border?
EDIT:
George Soros believes another economic crisis similar to 2008 is coming.
The Chinese stock market is now tanking.
The American stock market is now getting very jittery and my 401K needs massaging.
Most who are not on a government check of some kind are getting nervous.
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HighDesertDJ
Trad climber
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Topic Author's Reply - Jan 8, 2016 - 07:16am PT
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George Soros believes another economic crisis similar to 2008 is coming.
The Chinese stock market is now tanking.
The American stock market is now getting very jittery and my 401K needs massaging.
Most who are not on a government check of some kind are getting nervous.
Yeah it's a little worrisome. It shows how a globalized economy requires increased global cooperation. You aren't actually in competition with someone if when they lose you lose.
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HighDesertDJ
Trad climber
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Topic Author's Reply - Jan 8, 2016 - 12:42pm PT
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OK I lied. Steve Israel's explanation of the money hunt and why he is leaving Congress is too good not to post:
Washington — IT’S now safe to pick up your phones and read your emails. That’s right, I won’t be calling to ask you to donate to my congressional campaign. As I announced on Tuesday, I’ll be leaving Congress at the end of this term — sentimental about many things, but liberated from a fund-raising regime that’s never been more dangerous to our democracy.
In the days after my first election to Congress, in 2000, I attended several orientation sessions in Washington, eager to absorb the lessons of history. I wanted to learn what Congressman Abraham Lincoln had learned, to hear the wisdom of predecessors like John Quincy Adams, Daniel Webster and Joseph Gurney Cannon. The romance was crushed by lesson No. 1: Get re-elected. A fund-raising consultant advised that if I didn’t raise at least $10,000 a week (in pre-Citizens United dollars), I wouldn’t be back.
The money race began, and I attended political action committee fund-raisers, which are like panhandling with hors d’oeuvres. There were hours of “call time” — huddled in a cubicle, dialing donors. Sometimes double dialing and triple dialing. Whispering sweet nothings and other small talk into the phone in hopes of receiving large somethings. I’d sit next to an assistant who collated “call sheets” with donor’s names, contribution histories and other useful information. (“How’s Sheila? Your wife. Oh, Shelly? Sorry.”)
Since then, I’ve spent roughly 4,200 hours in call time, attended more than 1,600 fund-raisers just for my own campaign and raised nearly $20 million in increments of $1,000, $2,500 and $5,000 per election cycle. And things have only become worse in the five years since the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision, which ignited an explosion of money in politics by ruling that the government may not ban political spending by corporations in elections.
I saw the consequences firsthand.
As chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, I was invited to glamorous Washington galas, the ones where thousands of eyes make no eye contact, where pupils constantly rove in search of someone more powerful. At one dinner, in 2012, I was chatting with a powerful Republican congressional colleague. Despite the fact that the Democrats were in the minority, our campaign committee had in recent years equaled or surpassed the G.O.P. in fund-raising. My colleague amiably congratulated me and then added, “But in the end our guys will have more super PAC money than your guys.”
He was right. Early one morning, as I was headed from New York to California to stump for Democrats, I received a staff member’s urgent call. G.O.P. groups, she told me, had bought $2 million of TV time against one of our incumbents the previous night. We needed to match them to maintain parity on the air. We juggled dollars, shuffled resources and sent panicked email appeals to our donors that read, “IT’S OVER!!!” and “ALL IS LOST!!!” Luckily, we managed to cover the gap.
Hours later, I landed in Los Angeles. My phone rang. The same staff member repeated the same crisis. Annoyed, I said, “We handled this already!” She responded: “No, Mr. Chairman. The Republicans dumped in another $2 million when they saw our $2 million.”
This isn’t “Shark Tank.” This is your democracy. But as the bidding grows higher, your voice gets lower. You’re simply priced out of the marketplace of ideas. That is, unless you are one of the ultra wealthy.
Democrats in Congress and all of the party’s presidential candidates strongly support campaign finance reforms. In 2010, when our party was in the majority in the House under Speaker Nancy Pelosi, we passed the Disclose Act, a bill designed to help counter the effects of Citizens United, but Senate Republicans stymied it. Representative John Sarbanes, a Democrat from Maryland, has worked tirelessly with colleagues to pass viable campaign finance measures. As a 16-year veteran of Congress, I’d calculate the probability that the current Republican majority schedules a vote on that bill at: LOL.
There are some small steps we can take. Next week I will attend my final State of the Union speech. I hope that the president will announce an executive order requiring that federal contractors disclose their political spending.
Ultimately, however, the only solution is across-the-board changes in campaign finance. We need “who-gives-what” transparency in real time (not after the damage has been done), shareholder disclosure of all corporate political expenditures and public financing of congressional elections.
But here’s a political fact of life: Not one of these things will be passed by the current crowd in charge. The only hope for reform is to replace the majority that is stopping reform at every turn.
I’ll miss Congress: the history, colleagues on both sides of the aisle, the ability to help my constituents. But on hallowed ground where Lincoln inspired us to oppose slavery, where F.D.R. summoned us after Pearl Harbor, where L.B.J. demanded voting rights for African-Americans, I won’t miss leaving phone messages asking PACs to “max out before the end of the quarter.”
My new “call time” will be spent waiting for a customer service agent to help me decipher a cable bill. Even that will be more pleasant.
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Ken M
Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
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538 ENDORSEMENT PRIMARY
Jan 8
REPRESENTATIVES
1 POINT EACH
SENATORS
5 POINTS EACH
GOVERNORS
10 POINTS EACH
TOTAL POINTS
Jeb Bush 46
Marco Rubio 38
Chris Christie 26
Mike Huckabee 25
John Kasich 15
Rand Paul 15
Ted Cruz 12
Lindsey Graham 5
Carly Fiorina 3
Scott Walker 2
Rick Perry 1
Rick Santorum 1
Hillary Clinton 457
Bernie Sanders 2
Martin O'Malley 1
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HighDesertDJ
Trad climber
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Topic Author's Reply - Jan 9, 2016 - 05:39pm PT
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That's an interesting concept. I wonder if they based the points on anything empiric. Endorsements haven't counted for sh#t so far in the Republican race.
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Lorenzo
Trad climber
Portland Oregon
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Topic Author's Reply - Jan 9, 2016 - 05:39pm PT
That's an interesting concept. I wonder if they based the points on anything empiric. Endorsements haven't counted for sh#t so far in the Republican race.
To be fair, nobody has a single delegate sewn up. It's pretty hard to tell what has counted for what.
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HighDesertDJ
Trad climber
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Topic Author's Reply - Jan 9, 2016 - 06:33pm PT
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Sure, but they could base the importance of different endorsements on delegate performance.
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monolith
climber
state of being
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538 is all about associations between data and results, so yeah, it's a good predictor. However, Trump may be a confounding factor.
In presidential primaries, endorsements have been among the best predictors of which candidates will succeed and which will fail. So we’re keeping track.
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Lorenzo
Trad climber
Portland Oregon
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So Jeb Bush is the nominee?
Not happening.
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Ken M
Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
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Jan 10, 2016 - 09:43pm PT
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538 explains the "hidden primary" in great depth, looking at a whole lot of prior elections.
Jeb should have the same number as Hillary, but he has been stuck for 2 months at the same number. He started out about here, and everyone else was in single digits. It's a race where the leader started walking.
BREAKING NEWS, since I posted that, Marco has gone up another 5 points
Before any votes are cast, presidential candidates compete for the support of influential members of their party, especially elected officials like U.S. representatives, senators and governors. During the period known as the “invisible primary,” these “party elites” seek to coalesce around the candidates they find most acceptable as their party’s nominee. Over the past few decades, when these elites have reached a consensus on the best candidate, rank-and-file voters have usually followed.
In the book “The Party Decides” (2008), the most comprehensive study of the invisible primary, the political scientists Marty Cohen, David Karol, Hans Noel and John Zaller evaluated data on endorsements made in presidential nomination contests between 1980 and 2004 and found that “early endorsements in the invisible primary are the most important cause of candidate success in the state primaries and caucuses.”
These endorsements can serve several purposes. In some cases, they directly influence voters who trust the judgment of governors and members of Congress from their party. In other cases, endorsements serve as a signal to other party elites. “It tells others who is acceptable and who is unacceptable,” Cohen, an associate professor of political science at James Madison University, said in an e-mail to FiveThirtyEight. “This is the coordination process that we believe goes on during the invisible primary and by way of public endorsements that was formerly and more formally undertaken at the convention.”
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Ken M
Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
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Jan 10, 2016 - 09:48pm PT
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So, John E,
It seems to me that one of the most fundamental theorems of GOP economics is the oft-cited "Trickle down effect". If you create a system that puts more money in the hands of the wealthy, all will benefit.
However, that seems to be contradicted by actual financial performance of the private sector of the last 15 or more years.
There has been tremendous enhancement of wealth of the wealthy, but that has not trickled down, at all. AT ALL.
If this most fundamental principle of conservative economics is wrong, isn't everything that is built upon is also likely to fail?
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Larry Nelson
Social climber
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Jan 11, 2016 - 04:04am PT
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Ken M,
If I could interject some here on the income inequality gap.
Aside from technology tending to drive income inequality,
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-12/deflation-hits-oldest-profession-world-hookers-numbers
income variations in society are generally a result of different choices leading to different consequences.
You choose to drop out of high school, or you choose to get a diploma and pushes on with purposeful education?
You have your children out of wedlock, or you have them within a marriage?
Free people in a free society where free choices lead to different outcomes.
What jobs do the 1% have?
http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html/newsgraphics/2012/0115-one-percent-occupations/index.html
Here is a good article that addresses another aspect of the income divide:
Far more than in previous generations, clever, successful men marry clever, successful women. Such “assortative mating” increases inequality by 25%, by one estimate, since two-degree households typically enjoy two large incomes. Power couples conceive bright children and bring them up in stable homes—only 9% of college-educated mothers who give birth each year are unmarried, compared with 61% of high-school dropouts. They stimulate them relentlessly: children of professionals hear 32m more words by the age of four than those of parents on welfare. They move to pricey neighborhoods with good schools, spend a packet on flute lessons and pull strings to get junior into a top-notch college. http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21640331-importance-intellectual-capital-grows-privilege-has-become-increasingly?fsrc=scn%2Ftw%2Fte%2Fpe%2Famericasnewaristocracy
So are we dumbing down to Idiocracy?
Look at this 8th grade exam from 1912. You might have to select and zoom it to see well, sorry
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HighDesertDJ
Trad climber
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Topic Author's Reply - Jan 11, 2016 - 05:10am PT
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Larry posted If I could interject some here on the income inequality gap.
Aside from technology tending to drive income inequality,
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-12/deflation-hits-oldest-profession-world-hookers-numbers
income variations in society are generally a result of different choices leading to different consequences.
You choose to drop out of high school, or you choose to get a diploma and pushes on with purposeful education?
You have your children out of wedlock, or you have them within a marriage?
Free people in a free society where free choices lead to different outcomes.
The premise here is that everyone has equal opportunity to make those choices. Not many people make a calculated choice between sex work and high finance. I'm not sure if you intended it but perpetuating this kind of idea that "well poor people made a free choice in a free society" is just another form of poor shaming.
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guyman
Social climber
Moorpark, CA.
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Jan 11, 2016 - 09:47am PT
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Larry.... good post.
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