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yosemite 5.9
climber
santa cruz
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Sun’s Bizarre Activity May Trigger Another Little Ice Age (Or Not): ‘Solar activity is in gradual decline’
By: Marc Morano - Climate DepotJuly 15, 2013 4:27 PM
Sun’s Bizarre Activity May Trigger Another Little Ice Age (Or Not)
http://www.thegwpf.org/suns-bizarre-activity-trigger-ice-age/
The sun is acting bizarrely and scientists have no idea why. Solar activity is in gradual decline, a change from the norm which in the past triggered a 300-year-long mini ice age.
Illustration mapping the steady decline in sunspot activity over the last two solar cycles with predicted figures for the current cycle 24
Three leading solar scientists presented the very latest data about the weakening solar activity at a teleconference yesterday in Boulder, Colorado, organised by the American Astronomical Society. It featured experts from Nasa, the High Altitude Observatory and the National Solar Observatory who described how solar activity, as measured by the formation of sunspots and by massive explosions on the sun’s surface, has been falling steadily since the mid-1940s.
The sun goes through a regular 11-year cycle with a maximum, when sunspot activity is at its peak, followed by a minimum when sunspot numbers are reduced and are smaller and less energetic. We are supposed to be at a peak of activity, at solar maximum.
Outside the norm
The current situation, however, is outside the norm and the number of sunspots seems in steady decline. The sun was undergoing “bizarre behaviour” said Dr Craig DeForest of the society.
“The sun’s current maximum activity period is very late and very weak, leading to speculation that the sunspot cycle itself could be shutting down or entering a dormant phase,” he said before the teleconference.
Irish solar science specialist Dr Ian Elliott, formerly of the Dublin Institute for Advanced Studies, quoted from figures released by Nasa on July 1st. It had asked an expert group to predict sunspot activity using models, with an upper limit and a lower limit.
The predictions suggested the monthly average sunspot total should range between 90 and 140, but in fact the present monthly average is only 67, Dr Elliott said. A typical average at maximum during much of the early 20th century was about 200.
“It is the smallest solar maximum we have seen in 100 years,” said Dr David Hathaway of Nasa. We are currently in solar cycle number 24 which is about half as active as cycle 23, but cycle 25 is likely to be smaller again due to changes in the magnetic flux on the sun’s surface,” he said.
Dr Giuliana de Toma of the High Altitude Observatory acknowledged the clear signs that solar activity was in decline but this did not mean the earth was heading for another “Maunder Minimum”. This was a time between 1645 and 1725 when solar activity was extremely low or nonexistent, a situation which caused a mini ice age.
The fall-off in sunspot activity still has the potential to affect our weather for the worse, Dr Elliott said. Research by Prof Mike Lockwood at the University of Reading showed how low solar activity could alter the position of the jet stream over the north Atlantic, causing severe cold during winter months. This was likely the cause of the very cold and snowy winters during 2009 and 2010, Dr Elliott said.
“It all points to perhaps another little ice age,” he said. “It seems likely we are going to enter a period of very low solar activity and could mean we are in for very cold winters.”
And while the researchers in the US said the data showed a decline in activity, they had no way to predict what that might mean for the future.
The Irish Times, 12 July 2013
see also -
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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60f tommorow,NORMAL,my ass.
But ,hey ,were going kayaking!We do not get good sized snow melts often any more.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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By: Marc Morano - Climate DepotJuly 15, 2013 4:27 PM
Another blogger heard from. Just to balance blogger with blogger,
Marc Morano
Credentials
B.A., Political Science, George Mason University. [1]
Background
In 2009 Marc Morano became the executive director and chief correspondent of ClimateDepot.com, a project of the Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT), a conservative think-tank based out of Washington D.C. that has received funding from ExxonMobil, Chevron, as well as hundreds of thousands of dollars from foundations associated with Richard Mellon Scaife. According to 2011 IRS Forms (PDF), Morano was the highest paid staff member with a salary of $150,000 per year. Morano's blog Climate Depot regularly publishes articles questioning man-made global warming. [12], [13], [6]
Although he has no scientific expertise in the area, Morano has become a prominent climate change skeptic. He has been called "the Matt Drudge of climate denial", the "King of the skeptics," and a "central cell of the climate-denial machine." He was also listed as one of 17 top "climate killers" by Rolling Stone Magazine. He has accused climate scientists of "fear mongering," and has claimed that proponents of man-made global warming are "funded to the tune of $50 billion." [15], [16]
From 2006 to 2009 Morano was the communications director for Senator James Inhofe (R-Okla.), the minority chair of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee. Prior to the last election, Inhofe was the majority chair of the EPW committee. In the 2002 election cycle, Senator Inhofe received more in donations from the oil and gas sector than any other Senator. Sen. Inhofe is known for his infamous quote that the threat of catastrophic global warming is the "greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people," and as his communications director, Mornano has spent his recent years propagating this message. [3]
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Dec 4, 2013 - 07:41pm PT
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The Chief, Rick, Ron, anybody... Can you tell me why you think the National Academy of Sciences is lying?
No takers, as expected.
All these AWG deniers, jabber jabber jabber. But when it comes to defending their position (that the world's climate scientists are lying), they can't rub two sticks together.
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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Thanks Wade.
Do Libertarians buy gifts?
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Do Libertarians buy gifts?
no. they don't trust Santa to distribute them to those who have earned them.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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K-man, see the Club of Rome and it's bible, The Limits of Growth, for an answer to why the leadership of the NAS,the U.N, many European Union countries, and many environmental organizations are lying through their rotting teeth. You've drank so much of the koolaid that it might be impossible for you to comprehend, but i can assure the majority of the populace have awoken and are fed up with the idiotic CAGW community and its transparent attempt to tax and control.
Now let's talk reality about climate change.
1. The one constant of climate is change.
2, We live in an epoch called the Holocene which is an interglacial period amidst a 2.5 million period of some of Earths worst glacial conditions in its 4.5 billion year history. The average interglacial lasts 12-14 thousand years. We are due any time for a return to full glacial conditions.
3. Approximately 150 years ago we started to come out of a period known as the Little Ice Age. The average ( if their can ever be such a thing) global temperatures during the LIA was 1.5 to 2C below the holocene typical.
4. There is nothing unusual in the amount or speed of the 20th century temp increase, In fact, the approx. .9C increase since the LIA doesn't even get Earth to average temps enjoyed during the Medieval Warm Period, The Roman Warm Period, or The Holocene Optimum.
5. Numerous proxy records confirm that atmospheric CO2 increase always follows temperature increases. The lag varies from months to millenia but no credible empirical evidence or study has ever been able to refute this lag.Temperature increases trigger natural releases of CO2 from ocean and land.Temperature decreases increases the capacity of the natural ocean and land CO2 sinks and atmospheric content falls.
6. Contrary to what the CAGW wackos claim Earths atmospheric CO2 content has often exceeded today's count of 395ppm without a runaway green house event. The historic periods CO2 content was not fixed at 280 ppm, in fact measurements other than those at Mauna Kea have produced numbers above 400 ppm as early as the 1930's. There were more than 17,000 measurements prior to Mauna Kea.Reconstructions from proxy records (which don't have the resolution to show short term spikes and dips) show a content fluctuating between 210 to 350 ppm over the last 100,000 years. It is undisputed that mans contribution to current atmospheric CO2 content is only approx. 3%.
7. The primary driver of climate is the Sun. The Sun's radiation intensity (TSI) fluctuates up to 1% from periods known as grand minimum's to grand maximum's. During the modern era of satellite measurement the accepted observed 11 year Schwabe solar cycles produced variations not exceeding .2%, but this period was almost completely in one of the most intense solar grand maximums of the last 6000 years. The CAGW wackos have disengenuously adopted not this meager .2% variation, but the even more meager .1% average over the satellite era as the maximum accepted solar variation. This is untrue, from peaks at the previously mentioned Grand Maximum to the depths of Grand Minimum TSI varies up to 1%, or in other words by an order of magnitude more than it is given credit for. A solar variation of 1%, over a period of decades can have a profound effect on average temps. Concurrently with variation of TSI is more pronounced variations in the Solar magnetic field, solar wind speed, and mass ejections. Also buried in this 1% TSI variation are areas of the spectrum, particularly UV that vary up to 10%. UV radiation ionizes molecules in the upper layers of the atmosphere and affecting the troposphere in ways that are understudied, but having distinct effect. Periods of reduced solar magnetic field in turn allows more cosmic rays to penetrate the Earths atmosphere causing up to 10 times the production of cloud nuclei possibly forming increased cloudiness during periods of decreased solar activity. From satellite observation estimates the period from 1987 to 2000 had up to 5% less global cloud cover than periods before or after. This amount of reduction would lead to marked increase in surface temps due to increased radiation penetration. Interestingly this period corresponds to the height of the global warming craze.
8. Second in line for short term (decadal to annual) climate drivers are ocean oscillations. The oceans absorb and store exponentially larger amounts of solar radiation than the atmosphere. These have positive phases warming the atmosphere and negative phases cooling the atmosphere. Some of these phases can be rapid and intense like the ENSO of 1998 which caused an immediate spike in global average temperature, or the positive phase change of the PDO in the 1970's that caused an immediate spike in the northeastern pacific, Chukchi, Beaufort and Arctic ocean and land surface
areas. For the last 12 years the PDO has been in negative phase and temperatures in Alaska have decreased an average of 2.4 degrees at 19 out 20 first order weather stations.
TO BE CONTINUED
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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Rick, will you please show the link to that source posting so I can read the entire article?
thanks
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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The primary driver of climate is the Sun.
That's like blaming the mass of a car for the accident, instead of the drunk driver.
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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Chef,no record cold temps,just record warmth today.
I suppose that does not count with you and yours.
There is a conspiracy allright:
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Dec 5, 2013 - 09:43am PT
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K-man, see the Club of Rome and it's bible, The Limits of Growth, for an answer to why the leadership of the NAS,the U.N, many European Union countries, and many environmental organizations are lying through their rotting teeth.
Rick, thanks for jotting down your reasoning. I appreciate the time you've taken to answer.
From what you write, I gather that it's such a large conspiracy that even the scientists don't realize that their data is being skewed by a hidden power. Before it hits their screens, the data is that is being collected on the climate is being jiggered by the few who have the keys to the machines that report the data, and they make it LOOK like things are going warm. When in actuality, it's just a bunch of faked data. How else could there be peer-reviewed papers, where scientists come to the same conclusions using the available data upon which the papers are based.
That's a hard pill to swallow. Especially because we are seeing empirically what the models predict. Now that is some fancy jiggering!
But carry on, I want to see the rest of it!
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Dec 5, 2013 - 09:51am PT
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The Chief, record highs followed by record lows.
Does that to you indicate a stable climate, the status quo?
Wait! Before you answer, make sure your Bozo nose is shining red and hasn't fallen out of place from the center of your face.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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K-man, see the Club of Rome and it's bible, The Limits of Growth, for an answer to why the leadership of the NAS,the U.N, many European Union countries, and many environmental organizations are lying through their rotting teeth.
From this I gather that you've never seen The Limits to Growth. But what have you been told that it contains?
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Ed, your rebuttal is boiler plate idiocy. Many of your questions will be answered in the continuation.
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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then rebut Ed's post, Rick
take it apart, clearly and carefully, in detail
no clever little irrelevant personal digs, no emotional diatribes....
prove most everyone wrong when they say you don't have the intellect to do so
time to finally man up, rick
take it apart, clearly and carefully, in detail
or STFU, the choice is yours
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BASE104
Social climber
An Oil Field
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The basis for stratigraphy is defining intervals between max flooding surfaces. In the rock record, sea level changes in a very rhythmic way..evidence that the Earth's climate is cyclic. These cycles dominate the rock record.
The mechanism behind this is now generally accepted to be Milankovitch Cycles. These are cycles in the Earth's orbit and precession of the Earth's axis.
Although we are no doubt warming right now, we are oddly enough in a part of the cycles where we should be cooling down.
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