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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Nov 27, 2013 - 11:17am PT
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The Cheif is absolutely correct. His sources go far beyond the blogs. He suffers not from the trendy mass delusions that grip you K-Man and the other endlessly repetitious bloggers on this site. Well, maybe i'll exclude Wilbeer partially from this list since he seems to have somewhat of a life independent from delusion and is actually constructing things.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Nov 27, 2013 - 12:25pm PT
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I never said Dyson was a Climate scientist. If you remember, Raw held him up as esteemed scientist who's viewpoint he agreed with. You, Ed , then advanced Muller's op-ed in response to Raw. I merely stated that Dyson has a record of achievement far surpassing Muller's and his viewpoint should hold more weight than someone mired in controversy. The thing about Dyson is that he is not only a theoritician but also dreams big with applied science solutions to humanities problems. Climate, so far, is a non science and not worth a serios scientists time. It is a chaoctic system with many multiples of components that defy our current abilities to predict. The reason it is such a frenzy is that it was chosen by pols as a vehicle to get to their end goals. If it was a serious problem their would be many Dyson types with many solutions. You, yourself , i'm sure could think up partial mitigation efforts free of taxation if you could seperate yourself from rigid ideology.
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Cragar
Trad climber
MSLA - MT
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Nov 27, 2013 - 12:29pm PT
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I second DMT, I am bored on 99 and since I can't hit table MTn I figure I'd dive into one of these threads that are on topic for more than just climbers.
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Nov 27, 2013 - 12:33pm PT
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You mean this one Sketch? The one that accounts for the short term impacts from the changes of ENSO, volcano, and sun?
Do you feel that "curve-fitting" is the technique being employed here?
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raw
Mountain climber
Malibu
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Nov 27, 2013 - 12:45pm PT
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If we've established Dyson's bona fides, maybe we're in a better position to appreciate his insistence that climate models are not predictive and that things may well get better, not worse. (And then again, might get colder: "Nobody knows.") E.g., 5 times as many people die from extreme cold than from extreme heat, so warmer climate is a good thing.
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dirtbag
climber
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Nov 27, 2013 - 01:01pm PT
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No Ron, number have changed. I've lost several iq points reading posts by you, Chia-f, rick and skooch.
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Nov 27, 2013 - 01:15pm PT
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Do you think arctic temps have only risen a fraction of a degree, Anderson?
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Nov 27, 2013 - 01:22pm PT
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Anderson, I see you, sketch, and The Chief suffer from the same delusion, that the last bits of data explain everything.
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dirtbag
climber
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Nov 27, 2013 - 01:28pm PT
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They're illiterate. Worse, they can't recognize they're illiterate and shut their traps and listen.
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Nov 27, 2013 - 01:28pm PT
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Yes, Anderson, arctic sea ice did not break last years record loss. So what?
Antarctic sea ice extent has been growing slightly, but not enough to offset arctic sea ice extent loss.
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Nov 27, 2013 - 01:32pm PT
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Yes, a recovery percentage calculated from a record loss year. woopdedoo.
Do you understand how ratios of small numbers can be misleading?
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Nov 27, 2013 - 01:43pm PT
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Go with the long term trend Anderson.
One of the recovery years, made up for 15 years. Didn't mean much to the long term trend.
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Nov 27, 2013 - 01:56pm PT
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Glad you care so much about animals, Anderson. At least the one's you choose not to kill.
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Nov 27, 2013 - 02:00pm PT
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I'm ok with that Chief. Why should I care about what the masses think?
Is that how you decide what to believe, Chief?
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raw
Mountain climber
Malibu
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Nov 27, 2013 - 05:12pm PT
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RE: predictive value
"...given an arbitrary accuracy, no matter how precise, we can find a time long enough that we cannot make predictions valid for that long a time. Now the point is that this length of time is not very large....It turns out that in a very tiny, tiny time we lose all our information....We can no longer predict what is going to happen!" R. P. Feynman, Lectures on Physics I-38-9
(Admittedly, from a discussion on the implications of quantum indeterminacy v. the classical world. What I alluded to formerly as "computational error".)
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raw
Mountain climber
Malibu
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Nov 27, 2013 - 05:16pm PT
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In a different climate of opinion, Dyson's view that it is a good thing that India and China are bringing their billions into the modern world (at a cost of a new coal-fire power plant coming online every week) would be noncontroversial.
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raymond phule
climber
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Nov 28, 2013 - 05:11am PT
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(Admittedly, from a discussion on the implications of quantum indeterminacy v. the classical world. What I alluded to formerly as "computational error".)
Yes, completely irrelevant. The propagation of "computational errors" depends on the stability of the system that is simulated or used as a projection. It is possibly to simulate an asymptotically stable system for an arbitrary long time with good accuracy.
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raw
Mountain climber
Malibu
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Nov 28, 2013 - 03:35pm PT
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SO the question becomes why we should believe that climate is a stable system?
(I can well understand the models being stable in that for-every-epsilon-there-is-a-delta sense...I thought we were supposed to believe in butterfly-flap phenomena, indicative of climate's chaos?)
Dyson calls the model simplifications "fudge-factors".
Happy T-Day!
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raymond phule
climber
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Nov 28, 2013 - 04:42pm PT
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SO the question becomes why we should believe that climate is a stable system?
(I can well understand the models being stable in that for-every-epsilon-there-is-a-delta sense...I thought we were supposed to believe in butterfly-flap phenomena, indicative of climate's chaos?)
I believe that the climate is chaotic in the sense that it is impossibly to determine the weather for a given day in the future (already for quite short times intervals) but that the mean of the weather, i.e. the climate is a stable system driven by some inputs.
I really don't know though what numerical problems this kind of chaotic but stable systems could result in or if it is even possibly to analyze for the very complex climate models.
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