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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Nov 14, 2013 - 11:12am PT
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The piece I quoted came from the Wall Street Journal.
Interesting... Who owns the WSJ nowadays anyway, and do you believe the paper is biased one way or the other?
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raymond phule
climber
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Nov 14, 2013 - 12:03pm PT
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http://kidlat.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/cab/tc_frame.htm
Where did wall street journals get their data from?
Maximum sustained winds at 171 and peak gusts at 193 mph for Joan is less than the peak gust that can be found on my link above.
They also seems to have missed Reming.
Is it possibly that wall street journal is not a good scientific source?
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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Nov 14, 2013 - 06:19pm PT
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So tell me Sketch,what are "incorrect facts" anyway?
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Nov 15, 2013 - 12:30am PT
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Well Ed im not reading any papers on my only current access to the internet, my cell phone. But I can tell you this much about the one percent variation claims I read of - an american scientist by the name of Abbot claimed, up to the 1960's , a one percent varistion over centennial time scales
A group of russian scientists in the 1970's claimed to have measured variations of up to two percent. Another american scientist , I think by the name of Reid, claimed varitions of up to .6 percent. There is still much to learn about old Sol, much research is ongoing. What is clear is that we would have no climate to argue over were it not for the sun. A lot of astrophysicists are predicting a solar grand minimum starting with the beginning of cycle 24 in 2009 and gathering steam over the next few cycles. Some of these scientists are expecting it to completely overwhelm the feeble anthropogenic signal. Maybe it will, maybe it won't, but we are about to learn much, including direct measurements of just what is the range of variability between a grand max and grand min.Should be exciting and perhaps shocking times in climate science.
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Nov 15, 2013 - 03:08pm PT
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Why yes, there's still more:
The reason all these statements are backwards is that attributing particular weather events to climate change is ridiculously easy: Every weather event in the modern world is attributable to climate change. This is because weather is a chaotic system, which is to say it varies wildly based on initial conditions. Once we raised global temperature by a degree Celsius–which is an enormous intervention in the physical world–we irrevocably changed all weather, producing an entirely different set of events than the ones that would have otherwise occurred.
So climate change caused Typhoon Haiyan–in the sense that Haiyan would not have happened in the absence of climate change. Note that this is the most basic and obvious meaning of the word "cause."
From: Attributing Weather Events to Climate Change Is the Easy Part
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Nov 15, 2013 - 08:29pm PT
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That's a slightly disingenuous argument, K-man.
Hmmm, is it? I suppose it depends on the truth of the premise, that a raise in the global mean temperature by 1 degree C is enough of a change to disrupt the world's weather patterns. If true, then I believe the argument is valid.
If a 1 degree changes is not "an enormous intervention in the physical world", and not enough to impact the Earth's weather patterns, then yes, the whole idea is mush.
I'm of the idea that a 1 degree change is enough to impact weather patterns. Would hurricane Sandy have happened if the world's temp did not increase? Could the air hold that much water without it being the temp is was?
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Nov 18, 2013 - 11:42pm PT
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I find the last sentence, " We wouldn't have a habitable climate if it weren't for the CO2", of Ed's last post quite encouraging. Are you acknowledging that we live amid a prolonged glacial era, only temporarily relieved by naturally increasing CO2 levels as a result of the warming effects of long periods of increased TSI, estimated to be up to one percent variable from the likes of solar grand minimums like the Maunder and Dalton to the modern grand maximum, and little understood amplifying effects like GCR cloud nucleation, 6-8 % UV radiation variations, and variations in solar magnetism and solar wind-eh Ed? If so you are really coming along.
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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Nov 20, 2013 - 05:49pm PT
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Nov 20, 2013 - 09:38pm PT
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Total B.S. mentalcase and Wilbeer. This is a new poll from 2013 that Sketch has posted. The meteorological society is not dominated by old, angry, white men. It is populated by people of all stripes and almost all better educated in weather and climate cause than effects than the legions of newly minted PHD's feeding at the public financed climate hog trough.
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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Nov 20, 2013 - 09:50pm PT
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I ,with a degree in geology,am overqualified to be a meteorologist .
Just saying.
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mouse from merced
Trad climber
The finger of fate, my friends, is fickle.
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Nov 21, 2013 - 01:24am PT
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UC Merced Professor to speak on “Climate and Wildfires in the West.”
from the Merced County Times.
The Modesto Area Partners in Science (MAPS) will offer a presentation by Anthony Westerling, Ph. C., associate professor of Environmental Engineering and Geography at UCM on the topic of “Climate and Wildfires in the West” on
Friday, Nov. 22, at 7:30 p.m
Sierra Hall Rm 132
West Campus of Modesto JC
2201 Blue Gum Avenue
Modesto, Alabama
The event is open to the public. Admission and parking are free.
Westerling will discuss how forests in the western US, which have been intensively managed by federal agencies for over a century, have been affected by changes in fire suppression resources, technologies, and strategies, as well as by land use changes and development pressures.
Globular warming has led to an increase in large, severe fries in recent decades, a trend that is expected to continue in the coming decades as climate change continues to excellerate due to the changes in the atmosphere.
Westerling will talk about how the forests respond to a changing climate, with temperaturd and precupitation strongly influencing the types and characteristics of vegetation that fuels wildfires, their spatial arrangement, and how the respond to human actions.
For more information:
Professor Noah Hughes, 209-575-6800 or hughesn@mjc.edu
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nature
climber
Boulder, CO
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Nov 21, 2013 - 11:57am PT
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I watched Chasing Ice the other night. Not sure why it didn't win an Academy Award. Wondering why you guys are wasting your time on this thread with these deniers. There's real work to be done. We're already past a few tipping points with many more on the horizon.
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raymond phule
climber
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Nov 21, 2013 - 03:33pm PT
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And China has four times the number of citizens than USA.
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climbski2
Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
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Nov 21, 2013 - 07:57pm PT
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Flat earthers are an interesting breed. Glad I long ago stopped feeling much desire to converse with them.
Once in a while I like to poke at the animals in the cage though.
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TGT
Social climber
So Cal
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Nov 21, 2013 - 08:19pm PT
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climbski2
Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
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Nov 21, 2013 - 08:23pm PT
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LOL TGT
You really think more snow means it's not warmer?
You never lived in Alaska did you?
BTW what exactly does snow extant mean? Is it measured in August or March or averaged year round?
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climbski2
Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
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Nov 21, 2013 - 09:02pm PT
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Cus there aint jackshet you nor anyone of the rest of the eco whiners here can or will do to change the reality of it all.
On that I sadly suspect you are correct. Hope not though.
Because a lot is capable of being done. Doubt it will be though. AT least not until things get much worse. Perhaps it won't be too late to make a real difference then.
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