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CrackAddict

Trad climber
Joshua Tree
Sep 29, 2011 - 02:28am PT
Joe, are you really asking why our currency has lost value against the Euro?

Negative real interest rates and money printing. Interest rates in the Euro zone have been much significantly higher on average in the last 10 years.

Money is subject to the laws of supply and demand, like everything else. The value of a country's currency comes from many factors, not simply the strength of its economy. Otherwise, why would the dollar go up in value when the stock market starts melting down?
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Sep 29, 2011 - 02:29am PT
Not sure. But if or when we do run out of oil I have a hell of a lot more faith in private corporations coming up with solutions than Government entities. They can't even spend within their budget.

Oh, you want to use logic? How many private companies have gone out of existance in the last 200 years, because they couldn't keep within their budget? How many of the top 100 companies a century ago in the US even EXIST today?

How many US or State Governments have gone out of existence in the last 200 years?

You want to go on the basis of historical record? THAT is the record.
johnboy

Trad climber
Can't get here from there
Sep 29, 2011 - 02:37am PT
Then there are those places that are following the Canadian example and drilling their way out of the recession.


Lowest unemployment rates August 2011
Bismarck, N.D. 3.0
Lincoln, Neb. 3.6 NOT
Fargo, N.D. 3.9
Portsmouth, N.H. 4.4
Rapid City, S.D. 4.5 NOT
Sioux Falls, S.D. 4.5 NOT
Omaha-Council Bluffs, Neb. 4.6 NOT
Burlington, Vt. 4.6
Midland, Texas 4.8
Houma-Bayou Cane-Thibodaux, La. 4.9[/quot




CrackAddict

Trad climber
Joshua Tree
Sep 29, 2011 - 02:44am PT
Oh, you want to use logic? How many private companies have gone out of existance in the last 200 years, because they couldn't keep within their budget? How many of the top 100 companies a century ago in the US even EXIST today?

How many US or State Governments have gone out of existence in the last 200 years?

You want to go on the basis of historical record? THAT is the record.


In a capitalist system when a company goes belly up, that is all she wrote. No cost to taxpayers. Companies that make less than a dollar for every dollar invested are (or should be, without government meddling) unapologetically eliminated. Another, smarter company comes in and picks up the pieces, and we have a natural selection system which creates new generations of smarter companies, making greater profits, which when summed up give us positive GDP growth.

There is NO such mechanism in Government. That is why government has never been able to create wealth - the return on investment never "breaks the buck" and rarely is over 0.50. Top down societies eventually run out of money. Multiply 0.5 by 0.5 by 0.5 and you get... Cuba.

Funny, what you consider the weakness of private enterprise is actually it's strength.
CrackAddict

Trad climber
Joshua Tree
Sep 29, 2011 - 02:50am PT
This sounds interesting.

I had known the Germans got around the oil embargo, but I wasn't thinking about it as a solution to the oil problem.

50-60 bucks a barrel?


Is that real? we should be talking about that.

There is another problem though...

We have a little deal with Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia has to sell us oil and all oil has to be purchased from Opec in U.S. Dollars (even from Iran!). Those dollars have to be reinvested in the U.S. - that is why so many U.S. contractors worked in Saudi Arabia in the 70s and 80s and turned it into a modern country. In exchange for all that, we have to purchase a high percentage of oil from Saudia Arabia, and protect the Royal family like our President (remember Bin Laden's family on 9/11?)
CrackAddict

Trad climber
Joshua Tree
Sep 29, 2011 - 02:53am PT

Why didn't we just print more money in response, if that would have actually increased the value of the dollar? What purpose does intentionally deflating the dollar serve?

I think you have it backwards here, I assume you mean "decreased the value of the dollar"?

Deflating the dollar increases our standard of living relative to other countries but makes us less competitive.
CrackAddict

Trad climber
Joshua Tree
Sep 29, 2011 - 03:05am PT
Yes that will increase the value of your currency - just print more of it!

Again, I think you have this backwards.

Fact: our interest rates have been much lower than the Euro zone's in the last 10 years.

Fact: higher interest rates encourage investment in the higher yielding currency.

Fact: printing money creates a larger supply, and therefore lower price.

The last 2 facts explain why the Euro has on average been stronger than the Dollar in the last 10 years (although it did not double in value) - we printed more money, and kept interest rates lower.
CrackAddict

Trad climber
Joshua Tree
Sep 29, 2011 - 03:14am PT

If you look at the radios, cars, airplanes, and all the rest that we had in 1938 and compare them to what we had by 1947, you'd see a HUGE, IMPRESSIVE and ASTONISHING improvement in all of them technologies. Radios got TREMENDOUSLY better circuit designs. Car design was INCREDIBLY advanced. Airplanes DOUBLED in capacity and speed and altitude and everything else. Manufacturing ability changed STUPENDOUSLY!


This had little if anything to do with war, it was all created by private enterprise, although the factories and infrastructure built during the war helped facilitate it.

Henry Ford used to pay the modern equivalent of $10K per month to uneducated factory workers - 4X the average wage at the time. There were no income taxes, no unions, and almost no regulations.

Incidentally, why is our economy not booming then with all the wars we are fighting now? We should have 5-10% growth!
The money we have invested in war China has invested in infrastructure, so their economy is booming.
CrackAddict

Trad climber
Joshua Tree
Sep 29, 2011 - 03:19am PT
But they're even more in debt than we are, 80% 0f their GDP, versus our measly 60%

That is harder to ascertain. Japan has over 200% of their GDP in sovereign debt and yet they have one of the strongest currencies in the world.

Economists constantly debate the effects of debt on a currency. It also depends on who is holding the debt, ours is mostly overseas and Japan's is mostly internally held.
CrackAddict

Trad climber
Joshua Tree
Sep 29, 2011 - 03:20am PT
Nice one Donald.

Haaaiiigh Fiiiive!
CrackAddict

Trad climber
Joshua Tree
Sep 29, 2011 - 03:36am PT
"Economists constantly debate the effects of debt on a currency. It also depends on who is holding the debt, ours is mostly overseas and Japan's is mostly internally held."

Yes that is the common dodge, although "printing more money" is one of the least imaginative

Again, not a single repub I've ever spoken to will dare debate this topic, and I make a point of bringing it up every chance I get

Not on this site, and not face to face

They're like zero for 50 at this point

It's like holding the cross up to the vampire - they hiss, screech, and vanish, baring their fangs and swearing revenge

And then they change the subject

I don't characterize myself as a republican but I'll gladly debate you on it. What is your argument though? "If they had 80% public debt and we had 60%, why did our currency lose value relative to theirs?" If that is your argument you have to explain why you think a currency should lose value if there is more public debt denominated in it. And be careful here, because remember the dollar went from about 120 Yen to about 76 currently, all the while Japan had a public debt of 200% GDP.
Karl Baba

Trad climber
Yosemite, Ca
Sep 29, 2011 - 03:36am PT

So the average of the Y axis is about 25 Billion, right?
This graph shows 32 years.
The gives us $800 Billion. You are right, less than a Trillion, but I think I said "nearly a Trillion"

Except that 800 billion wasn't remotely spent. The graph uses 2010 inflation adjusted dollars and thus would say my parents paid $400,000 for their house in 1963 when in reality they paid $29,000. Of course, there's something to be said for adjusting for inflation but you better state that when you say a trillion was spent. it wasn't

and when you look at where the money was spent, I'll grant the defense money was mostly wasted. Would you skip the environmental cleanup (which was mostly for nuke weapon sites right, you just going to let them leak and pollute?) The science and energy part of the DOE is a pretty small slice, what we spend in a few days in Iraq and Afghanistan

As for Peak Oil, there are a couple theories out there, one that says Oil is not a fossil fuel at all, it is produced by a chemical reaction in the Earth. Sounds ludicrous, but the Fossil fuel theory does not explain how oil can be found hundreds of kilometers deep in a Craton. How did those Dinos get down there?

There is not a credible scientist who believes Oil is abiotic. It's a crackpot theory but it doesn't matter because no matter how if forms, statistics show we stopped finding as much as we were burning a long time ago and now production is slowing because of it.

Not sure. But if or when we do run out of oil I have a hell of a lot more faith in private corporations coming up with solutions than Government entities. They can't even spend within their budget.

Rox has already disabused us of this. One problem is that we must invest now in our future energy lack. Companies will wait until it's cost effective in a relatively short term to make changes and then we won't have enough energy to change the vast infrastruction. Like going to Space and the A-bomb, this is a job for government effort that doesn't pay off asap for the benefit of all.

Coal gasification at $60 a barrel? Real oil is over $80 a Barrel right now! Obviously you don't believe in man-made climate change either, and the main gasification plant using waste coal somehow needs 140 million dollars in the government subsidies you complain about. Which is nothing compared to the $122 Billion the nuke industry is asking government for. The union of concerned scientists says screw both of em.

http://www.ucsusa.org/news/media_alerts/ucs-tells-senate-no-loan.html

which includes

Similarly, liquid coal facilities could cost as much as $125,000 per barrel of daily production capacity. A commercial-scale, 50,000-barrel-per-day facility thus could exceed $6 billion in capital costs....Liquid coal, meanwhile, is an untested technology that produces nearly twice the lifecycle global warming pollution as conventional petroleum fuel. Coal gasification power plants built without carbon capture and storage would emit about as much global warming pollution as a new coal plant using more traditional technology. As such, each liquid coal plant or coal gasification power plant would represent a dangerous step in the wrong direction, directly undermining U.S. climate protection efforts and threatening our nation's ability to avoid the worst consequences of climate change. Additionally, deployment would dramatically increase coal mining and its attendant disadvantages, including groundwater contamination, habitat loss, and despoilment of natural landscapes.

Still, it's a crazy time. Climate change is real and Florida may be under water almost completely in 100 years because we can't resist the cheapest ways to solve the coming energy pinch

Peace

karl

Degaine

climber
Sep 29, 2011 - 03:39am PT
Donald Thompson wrote:

The euro would be worth nothing were it not for the Germans, the hardest working and most conservative Europeans. They are the last bastion of a work ethic in the collectivist Euro union. The Germans are the ones bailing out all the socialist slackers as we speak.


Psst, Donald, Germans have universal health care (and it costs half as much per capita as in the US,and the outcomes data shows that they provide better quality care overall).
Degaine

climber
Sep 29, 2011 - 03:41am PT
Donald Thompson wrote (regarding Germany):

No its called private enterprise, you know, the only known economic system proven to work in the modern context.


Psst, Donald, Germans have universal health care (and it costs half as much per capita as in the US,and the outcomes data shows that they provide better quality care overall).

Also, all EU countries have private enterprise and free markets. Could you please cite one that does not?
Degaine

climber
Sep 29, 2011 - 03:42am PT
Donald Thompson wrote:

I lived in Germany and Italy for 4 years.


So then you should know that Germany has a universal health care system.
Karl Baba

Trad climber
Yosemite, Ca
Sep 29, 2011 - 03:43am PT
Just in case people's eyes "accidentally" skip over it

Psst, Donald, Germans have universal health care (and it costs half as much per capita as in the US,and the outcomes data shows that they provide better quality care overall).
CrackAddict

Trad climber
Joshua Tree
Sep 29, 2011 - 03:55am PT
Except that 800 billion wasn't remotely spent. The graph uses 2010 inflation adjusted dollars and thus would say my parents paid $400,000 for their house in 1963 when in reality they paid $29,000. Of course, there's something to be said for adjusting for inflation but you better state that when you say a trillion was spent. it wasn't

I think you are grasping at straws here...
When I say a Trillion, I mean a Trillion in today's dollars. I would hope nearly everyone understood that. You always have to correct for inflation, unless you are Al Gore and you want to create a nice exponential ramp up at the end of the graph...

CrackAddict

Trad climber
Joshua Tree
Sep 29, 2011 - 04:03am PT

Psst, Donald, Germans have universal health care (and it costs half as much per capita as in the US,and the outcomes data shows that they provide better quality care overall).

Those crazy Germans, we can't take care of our own citizens and they are providing health care for the entire UNIVERSE??

US health care is not universal, but it is highly subsidized, creating sector inflation. Basically when the government prints money and throws large amounts of that money into specific sectors of the economy (i.e., housing, education, health care) the costs spiral out of control in a positive feedback loop. The higher the prices get, the more the government subsidizes, and the higher the prices get. There is no market force to hold prices down. Look at the upward spiral of tuition and student loans.

A better example of privatized health care is in Thailand. Bumrungrad hospital has entirely U.S. trained doctors (we don't even have that here!), excellent quality care in a resort like setting, at about 1/4 the prices we have. India has several "Medical tourism" centers like this also.
Karl Baba

Trad climber
Yosemite, Ca
Sep 29, 2011 - 04:22am PT
Crack wrote

When I say a Trillion, I mean a Trillion in today's dollars. I would hope nearly everyone understood that. You always have to correct for inflation, unless you are Al Gore and you want to create a nice exponential ramp up at the end of the graph...

Somehow I think if I said that Reagan increased the national debt by 5.1 trillion dollars, that somehow the conservatives on this site would cry foul. It's true by inflation adjusted numbers, even though Reagan only raised the debt by 1.8 trillion in 1980s dollars.

Reagan TRIPLED the national debt, so far Obama has increased it by 23%

and yet he is the conservative hero.

Let me quote myself on that so the conservatives can address the difference

Reagan TRIPLED the national debt, so far Obama has increased it by 23%

and please don't ignore this reagan lovers

Reagan TRIPLED the national debt, so far Obama has increased it by 23%

What's with that? and he even raised taxes a few times while TRIPLING the national debt

peace

Karl
CrackAddict

Trad climber
Joshua Tree
Sep 29, 2011 - 04:25am PT
Somehow I think if I said that Reagan increased the national debt by 5.1 trillion dollars, that somehow the conservatives on this site would cry foul. It's true by inflation adjusted numbers, even though Reagan only raised the debt by 1.8 trillion in 1980s dollars.

Fair enough...

But give Obama some time. He will increase the debt by at least 10 Trillion dollars if he is in office for 2 terms at the rate he is going now.

Reagan Tripled it, but with a low baseline. If Obama came in after Carter he would have multiplied it 6 Times (assuming he increases the debt at the same rate he is going now)
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