Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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corniss chopper

Mountain climber
san jose, ca
Nov 6, 2009 - 09:03pm PT
Great! How soon will it be warm enough for some
modern day Vikings
to resettle Greenland like Erik the Red did way back in 986 AD ?

counting coup on you again Dr f!

Jaybro

Social climber
Wolf City, Wyoming
Nov 6, 2009 - 09:18pm PT
yup, going into a global melt. Even while the ice age tries to resurge.

i guess summer is cool.... not for me, personally

Hope everyone knows how to swim. You do know how to swim, don't you? Put your head n the air and paddle for your life...
Ray Olson

Trad climber
Imperial Beach, California
Nov 6, 2009 - 11:57pm PT
aww c'mon Dr F,
we need to support Patagonia so they can
fix the problem for us...

in fact, I can't think of single word
of any value that's been whored-out
as badly as the "environment", its a giant living
in the hills, right? Push the right button, buy
the right product, make bad giant go away...

no problem, see how easy that was?

don't know why folks are uptight about this,
I mean, as long as we keep making the same
mistakes over and over expecting different
results...something "good" will happen, right?

corniss chopper

Mountain climber
san jose, ca
Nov 7, 2009 - 12:03am PT
But the most complete record of Sea Level
rise is from Barbados.
Here, dates largely from submerged in situ Acropora palmata,
a reef-forming coral that is regarded as the
best available sea level indicator from such
environments because of its fast growth rates and
considerable size, have permitted the construction
of a sea level curve beginning** 18,000 years ago
, when sea level was 121 meters below present sea level**.

So we're not responsible for Sea level rise.
Its been going up for a long time.
Can't stop it no matter how much you tax people.
guyman

Trad climber
Moorpark, CA.
Nov 7, 2009 - 12:52am PT
So what is the government going to do about SUN-SPOTS?

Those have been acting differently in the last few years.

Maybe we we need to pony up a lot more tax money to fix the sun.

Anybody who thinks we (humans) can adjust the Climate is a moron.

Just saying.
WBraun

climber
Nov 7, 2009 - 01:01am PT
Anybody who thinks we (humans) can adjust the Climate is a moron.

I remember when I was in Pittsburgh Pennsylvania back in the 50's the steel mills created so much smog that it changed the climate there to a very disturbing quality.

Much worst than anything you've ever seen in LA on it's worst smog day.
TradIsGood

Chalkless climber
the Gunks end of the country
Nov 7, 2009 - 11:31am PT
The truth is its already too late.

The Artic and Greenland are melting faster than all predictions

and the high CO2 levels take years to make any effect, but will more quickly now, as the changes are just catching up to the raising levels

When a scientist makes a prediction about an outcome and it is wrong, he realizes that there is a mistake in his theory, (or the measurement).

When a non-scientist reads about an outcome that is worse than predicted, he uses that to confirm the theory! You see he simply accepts the theory without question.

Skepticism separates the good scientists from the bad.
WandaFuca

Social climber
From the gettin place
Nov 7, 2009 - 03:17pm PT
When a scientist makes a prediction about an outcome and it is wrong, he realizes that there is a mistake in his theory, (or the measurement).

When a non-scientist reads about an outcome that is worse than predicted, he uses that to confirm the theory! You see he simply accepts the theory without question.

Skepticism separates the good scientists from the bad.





When a scientist finds that an outcome is worse than her model predicted, she realizes that not having enough data and processes in her model to make it a successfully predictive model does not necessarily negate the theory.

Subsequently, a scientist would form hypotheses to help explain and fix her model and/or theory to try to improve predictability.

She makes educated guesses based on what is possible and probable. For example, it is more probable that worse outcomes are related to incomplete models rather than a flawed theory, since the theory and outcomes point in the same direction; of course the opposite--and monkeys flying out of your butt--is still possible.

When someone is so obtuse he can't see the forest for the trees, he might not realize that worse is worse.
Karl Baba

Trad climber
Yosemite, Ca
Nov 7, 2009 - 07:34pm PT
Well think of it this way...

Let's say your penis was withering and you were afraid it was going to fall off.

You go to doctor number one and he says it's just a factor of age and other natural causes like genetics.

You go to doctor number two and he say that YOU are causing it with your indulgences.

Perhaps you don't want to stop indulging so you believe doc #1 but the bottom line is

>.."Your dick is still falling off! Better plan on doing something about it!"

If sea level is rising fast, no matter what is causing it, we either have to start moving the coastal cities and stopping growth there NOW, or figure out a way to reverse the natural or unnatural warming.

Rational enough eh?

Peace

Karl

Ray Olson

Trad climber
Imperial Beach, California
Nov 7, 2009 - 07:53pm PT
We are going to get it together. I believe that.

Sustainable manufacturing philosophy is an
American invention. Something we could all
be proud of, if we knew anything about it.

And so we being learning at a geometric rate :-)

With a little unity, we can get on that horse and
ever so gently kick it; just touch it with our spurs,
and it will go...

In the mean time we can all help our environment
by expressing a little compassion toward others, by
smiling and being patient with the person in the mini-mart,
by driving with courstesy, sending positive ripples into our
very own and very real environment.

We are going to get it together, because we have to.
Dave

Mountain climber
the ANTI-fresno
Nov 7, 2009 - 08:18pm PT
wind farms, lithium batteries, new power grids to distribute power to all these electric cars. Solar cells, mirrors, gallium cesium, lithium, copper, copper, and more copper.

Wow. Just think of all the new MINING jobs ya'll are creating. Sweet!
nature

climber
Tucson, AZ
Nov 7, 2009 - 08:32pm PT
of a sea level curve beginning** 18,000 years ago
, when sea level was 121 meters below present sea level**.

So we're not responsible for Sea level rise.
Its been going up for a long time.
Can't stop it no matter how much you tax people.

Listen... maybe you know more about the subject than you lead onto with this post. Perhaps as a grad student you studied Holocene/Pleistocene glacial/interglacial sequences (like I did). But I'm guessing you didn't. Maybe I guess wrong. But if you did then to somehow come to some conclusion that what's going on now has anything to do with the transition from the OIS stage 2 to OIS Stage 1 sequence yer... uh... a college grad student flunky.... (at least in paleoclimate studies and Quaternary (Glacial) Stratigraphy/Geology)
WandaFuca

Social climber
From the gettin place
Nov 7, 2009 - 09:44pm PT
I like Karl's analogy.

So your dick is falling off.

But Dr. QuackIsGood says that because it is rotting faster than either doctors number 1 or 2 predicted (based on their models), their diagnoses must be wrong and so don't worry about your putrefying penis; your dick isn't actually falling off.

Actually, your dick is falling off.

So you have a few choices. Just wait until gangrene kills you. Or you could chop it off now and keep the rest of your body from rotting too. Or you could try to follow the advice of doctor number 2 and possibly save/improve your dick and the rest of your body.
Porkchop_express

Trad climber
Currently in San Diego
Nov 7, 2009 - 09:59pm PT
The whole withering dick needs to be put in context...If your dick is withering at an age of 85 and the doctor claims that you need to pay him half your pay check for his magic pills that will put you in the league of a younger Ron Jeremy, then you might want to still cut out the indulgences as Karl points out, because there is no sense in being irresponsible, while saving your money to enjoy what life you have left via alternate means than your dick.

However there is a difference between responsible use and going to extremes of abuse or complete avoidance. Balance is the key. People who trash the environment and are slobs (small scale or massive corporate scale). People who advocate that everyone walk (not drive) around in burlap sacks and restrict bovine flatulence to fund their own private jets are equally reprehensible.

Balance should be found somewhere between the two since science is used to support opinions at both ends of the spectrum.
tithaf

Trad climber
Colorado Plateau
Nov 9, 2009 - 12:42pm PT
Dingus wrote:
I am not convinced any global warming legislation will have any positive effect on any of this, ever. We have a bunch of people assuring us they know what they are talking about. I am not convinced they know sh#t from shinola when it comes to cures for global warming.

Dingus, I am a climate scientist and I do know sh#t from Shinola. www.dadadean.com/shinola.pdf

thp

wildone

climber
GHOST TOWN
Nov 9, 2009 - 12:52pm PT
If you want to make a difference, quit crapping out kids like they're little goddamned miracles.
We had 1 billion people on the ENTIRE planet in 1930.
It took us until 1960 to hit 2 billion.
Now we're at about 7 billion, and it's gonna go exponential soon.
The earth's carrying capacity for people is between 2 and 3 billion people (BBC). I'm praying for a plague.
WBraun

climber
Nov 9, 2009 - 01:06pm PT
wildone -- "I'm praying for a plague."


Whenever I hear these type of thoughts it is the highest form of selfishness.

Unless of course you volunteer to go kill yourself first .....
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Nov 9, 2009 - 01:41pm PT

So we're not responsible for Sea level rise.
Its been going up for a long time.


And since non-smokers sometimes get lung cancer smoking is not responsible for lung cancer.
ydpl8s

Trad climber
Santa Monica, California
Nov 9, 2009 - 01:48pm PT
As a working geoscientist (geologist/geophysicist) the one thing I am aware of is that yes, we have gone through cycles like this in geologic history, long before there were greenhouse gas emissions. That being said, I do believe that we are contributing to the problem, how much? enough that it makes sense to do what we can.

Do I think that we can realistically make a dent when emerging economies like China and India are not fully on board? No!

Do I think that we are being a bit ignorant and arrogant about what we will be able to accomplish with our endeavours? Yes!

Do I think that natural phenomena like one single volcanic eruption can make years of Kyoto type measures irrelevant? Yes!

Do I think that the whole global warming bandwagon has become a cash cow for academia? yes!

That being said, I do think that we need to develop as many new energy sources as we can. Sadly, as altruistic as we may be, these won't become viable UNTIL they become economic.

We are, after all a race that is more reactionary than forward thinking.

We did develop some good data back-up systems leading up to Y2K. But I guess that even though I agree in the more basic development of energy sources and emission control, I'm afraid I believe that a lot of what is happening strikes me as "Chicken Little" philosophy.
wildone

climber
GHOST TOWN
Nov 9, 2009 - 09:52pm PT
Werner, I bust my balls on a bike everyday so that I can survive the coming plague. I've done 180 miles in the last 4 days (gotta work off this belly). My plan is to be so healthy, I'll have the cookie all to myself.
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