Discussion Topic |
|
This thread has been locked |
Lituya
Mountain climber
|
|
|
Dec 16, 2017 - 11:04pm PT
|
Could you survive living within your own, and what the biosphere can sustain, means?
If so. Quit whike you're ahead and live simply.
Sorry, but I can't read this. Apparently you're not just economically illiterate.
|
|
Bruce Morris
Trad climber
Soulsbyville, California
|
|
|
Dec 16, 2017 - 11:51pm PT
|
Personally, I'm just itching for a big crash, so I can go out a buy up again. Sure I want to buy some other people's discarded toys (that's always fun), but what I really want to buy are some slaves.
|
|
Lorenzo
Trad climber
Portland Oregon
|
|
|
Dec 17, 2017 - 01:28am PT
|
but what I really want to buy are some slaves.
So, you are an HR guy?
|
|
Dave
Mountain climber
the ANTI-fresno
|
|
|
Dec 17, 2017 - 06:31am PT
|
^^^^ Ha.
|
|
MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
|
|
|
Dec 17, 2017 - 07:28am PT
|
Robert L: There are no universal constants in finance, . . . .
Well, there sort of is: the capital asset pricing model and the practice of financial diversification.
Reilly and Vanguard appear to be right (with lots of data behind them).
Quit trying to pick winners, don’t attempt to time market turns, and simply “buy the market.” There are a great many empirical research studies on the issue.
Of course stock prices are socially constructed. So is money. Any asset is.
(You might be primed for a bit of buddhist conversation: everything is empty anyway, dude.)
Be well.
|
|
MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
|
|
|
Dec 17, 2017 - 08:52am PT
|
Er, “goodwill” is a placeholder in accounting for value that someone is willing to pay for assets beyond their book value that cannot be accounted for properly in other ways. For example, if one were to purchase a dentist’s practice, his or her customer list could not be valued as a typical asset but would be considered “hidden value.” That would show up in a sale as “goodwill.” Assets should balance liabilities.
You guys are expressing more of your emotions than your knowledge of financial matters. Equating Enron’s practices with unseen companies that number in the millions is grossly misleading. Show me the data.
|
|
Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
|
|
Dec 17, 2017 - 10:40am PT
|
You are helping 'em by spreading their BS to others.
Sad. I suppose I could post a graph of my returns at Vanguard but I guess that would be BS.
I could point out that my Vanguard man only manages 2/3 of my portfolio. Granted, per our request, that portion is invested conservatively. The remaining third, which I manage, has outperformed the other portion by 2% the last few years. Not chopped liver and no Bitcoins.
Lemme know, Robert, I can hook you up. Namaste!
|
|
Lituya
Mountain climber
|
|
|
Dec 17, 2017 - 11:13am PT
|
Robert & Gary & Co. would rather just wait for the day they can simply come and take it. And properly redistribute it. With a premium for the really smart animals. Like them. So it goes.
|
|
Gary
Social climber
Desolation Basin, Calif.
|
|
|
Dec 18, 2017 - 07:33pm PT
|
Capitalism works.
Really? How was it working on Oct. 29, 1929?
Does this sound familiar today?
http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/stock-market-crashes
During the 1920s, the U.S. stock market underwent rapid expansion, reaching its peak in August 1929, a period of wild speculation. By then, production had already declined and unemployment had risen, leaving stocks in great excess of their real value. Among the other causes of the eventual market collapse were low wages, the proliferation of debt, a weak agriculture, and an excess of large bank loans that could not be liquidated.
Here are market forces at work. People suffering from malnutrition in the cities while farmers can't sell their crops.
The depression meant hunger, malnutrition, overcrowding, and poor health. It gave rise to widespread poverty and suffering. Although few people died from starvation, many did not have enough to eat. People even searched garbage dumps for food or ate weeds. Since people lost jobs, the mortgages on many homes were foreclosed. Homeless people shacks out of old crates and formed shanty towns.
The farmers went through a worse time. The price of their goods, which was already low, fell further by 50 percent. There were people going hungry but at the same time surplus food could not be sold for a profit. http://www.rocketswag.com/medicine/nutrition/malnutrition/Malnutrition-And-Starvation-During-The-Great-Depression.html
Fortunately, the Democrats applied some of the more conservative planks of the old Socialist Party of America and saved America for capitalism.
As a good friend once put it:
Even if the workers did freely consent to this theft of the fruits of their labour, it would not solve the central economic problem of capitalism - it doesn't work. This is why we have repeated boom-bust cycles, people lose their investments and the whole cycle repeats itself with a whole new bunch of suckers to invest their money and an inexplicably willing next generation of workers who aquiesce to this absurdity as a result of relentless propaganda exhorting them to be patriotic, not to be "unamerican", not to be goddammed "pinkos", "commies" and any other totally meaningless epithets that the right wing can come up with. " John Locke's tacit consent" ?? I don't think so. This is onerous persuasion. It's intellectual repression. It's the implicit threat of some undefined disenfranchisement of those who dare to refuse to conform - those who are "unamerican", god will curse you, you don't belong here, you are not part of the herd...................
Robert & Gary & Co. would rather just wait for the day they can simply come and take it. And properly redistribute it.
Wealth is redistributed every day, from the people who produce it to the capitalist oligarchs who run the country. It's called class warfare. Don't take my word for it, a famous Marxist firebrand agrees with me:
“There’s class warfare, all right,” Mr. Buffett said, “but it’s my class, the rich class, that’s making war, and we’re winning.” http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/26/business/yourmoney/26every.html
|
|
Lituya
Mountain climber
|
|
|
Dec 18, 2017 - 08:10pm PT
|
@Gary says: The vast majority of the world is mired in dire poverty, some within 20 miles of Monrovia.
So it goes.
You seem to have skipped over some facts that were presented earlier as you poured out half the glass and tried to relitigate 1929. For your benefit, again:
http://www.newsweek.com/now-good-news-poor-are-getting-richer-696286
"The speed of poverty alleviation in the last 25 years has been historically unprecedented. Not only is the proportion of people in poverty at a record low, but, in spite of adding 2 billion to the planet’s population, the overall number of people living in extreme poverty has fallen too."
". . . in 1820, 94 percent of the world’s population lived in extreme poverty (less than $1.90 per day adjusted for purchasing power). In 1990 this figure was 34.8 percent, and in 2015, just 9.6 percent."
|
|
Fritz
Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
|
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 18, 2017 - 09:27pm PT
|
Gary & all: Capitalism works in strange ways, unlike God, who has taken the last couple of thousand years off.
The Great Depression worldwide, led to Roosevelt & all the reforms he pushed through as a “safety net” for the “working class” in America & the rise of Hitler in Germany. And we all know where that ended up.
It’s a strange, strange Capitalistic world we live in, and meanwhile, for the last 80 or so years, investing wisely, has paid off -----------in the long term. I do not worship Capitalism like the Republicans, but instead have embraced one of its minor sects, the First Church of Vanguard Mutual Funds.
My average stock & bond gains, mostly from Vanguard Funds, over the last 20 years, have averaged 8.74% per year. At the start of December 2017, the 10% or so of our investments that I still pretend to actively manage were up 21.5% YTD, but that’s an exception. In the long-run our Vanguard Mutual Funds have killed my schisty stock picks.
Current Vanguard portfolio as of 11/10/17
I’m trying to encourage young folks here, who have excess money, to invest it in low fee mutual funds like Vanguard, & just let your investments make you happy, in the long run.
|
|
Mungeclimber
Trad climber
Nothing creative to say
|
|
|
Dec 18, 2017 - 09:53pm PT
|
Fritz,
Spot on, trying to get people to 'invest'... but they don't realize that you can buy some simple dividend earning stocks for $5 after you open an account. They think you have to have a ton of money already saved.
The truth is a savings account is a rip off. Insured yes, but it won't grow. period.
|
|
briham89
Big Wall climber
santa cruz, ca
|
|
|
Dec 18, 2017 - 10:00pm PT
|
Fritz thanks for sharing. It's seems a simple S&P index fund would be a "winner" this year....up 19.14% (year change). Although hard to go wrong in 2017.
|
|
Spider Savage
Mountain climber
The shaggy fringe of Los Angeles
|
|
|
Dec 18, 2017 - 10:01pm PT
|
I dumped all my IRA's and play and number of solid stocks.
Those funds try to play it safe. It really holds them back.
So the trick is... when does this bubble pop? And how much can I make before it does?
|
|
Bruce Morris
Trad climber
Soulsbyville, California
|
|
|
Dec 18, 2017 - 11:34pm PT
|
I bought 4 PCGS MS66 Augustus Saint Gaudens double eagle 20-dollar gold pieces last week in a random sale from a coin dealer in Texas. They arrived here in Sonora in two packages. The first contained 2 1924 double eagles. No surprise there. Only $300+ per coin over melt. However, today the second package arrived. Bango, 2 PCGS MS 66 1908 double eagles without the "In God We Trust" motto below the flying eagle on the reverse sides. I had a hunch. Spun the roulette wheel and it paid off nicely. Not pure chance, but an educated guess since a hoard of 1908s were found recently in a Wells Fargo vault.
And gold lasts forever.
|
|
Mungeclimber
Trad climber
Nothing creative to say
|
|
|
Dec 18, 2017 - 11:35pm PT
|
If you haven't already taken some earnings, how would decide when to cash out?
I guess based on the rest of the portfolio, and whether percent of return has outperformed other sectors/holdings?
|
|
Bruce Morris
Trad climber
Soulsbyville, California
|
|
|
Dec 18, 2017 - 11:39pm PT
|
Invest in Dollar General Corporation. With all the low-grade food and merchanise they sell, DG seems poised to take advantage of the New Poverty. Solid performing stock too.
|
|
MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
|
|
|
Dec 19, 2017 - 06:28am PT
|
Fritz: . . . the First Church of Vanguard Mutual Funds.
lol.
In the long-run our Vanguard Mutual Funds have killed my schisty stock picks.
Ditto. I used to work in the investment industry for a primary government securities dealer for a little while, but left because I didn’t like what I was asked to do with investors (“sell” them no matter what I thought). I then went for a Ph.D. and teaching. In the last year, I took over our portfolio and moved everything over to Vanguard. It took some “splain’in” to my not-so-dumb wife about random walks down Wall Street in doing so. When I moved the portfolio over, I saw what she had bought. She bought almost every company I was high on over the years in my teaching of business strategy. Over a 15 year period of time, every single one of those stocks under-performed the market significantly.
What’s sometimes difficult to “get” (because it challenges intuitive sense) is that the strategic performance of firms in their markets is not tied to their stock price performance.
One need to remember that there are MANY really smart people working in the investment industry. They all can’t win. All markets are socially constructed. That means they are closely watching what each other is doing. Smart money tends to buy the gossip and sell the news. But even that gets gamed.
Diversification really is a “free lunch.” You can get something for nothing using it.
|
|
Gary
Social climber
Desolation Basin, Calif.
|
|
|
Dec 19, 2017 - 06:49am PT
|
You seem to have skipped over some facts that were presented earlier as you poured out half the glass and tried to relitigate 1929. For your benefit, again:
Lituya, have been down to Mexico lately? I guess all of the 9.6% of the world that lives in dire poverty must all be in Baja.
As for FEE, it's obvious that free markets don't work, except maybe for the oligarchy. Did you ever happen to see the Ohio River prior to the Clean Water Act? MArket forc es were at work there. It was an open industrial sewer. Nothing but rough fish like perch, carp, buffalo, gar and catfish could live in it and if the schools of dead fish floating on the surface drifting downstream were any indication even they weren't doing to well.
Sturgeon and striped bass have returned to the river. You can eat your catch without poisoning your unborn child, too. And by reading the business pages it appears that the Clean Water and Clean Air Act haven't exactly destroyed the ability of American business to generate a profit.
Should we return to those old days of libertarian free market pollution control?
|
|
Fritz
Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
|
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 19, 2017 - 07:41am PT
|
Mungeclimber! Per your question: If you haven't already taken some earnings, how would decide when to cash out?
Of course, that "when to cash out" question devils a lot of investors. On the one hand are the dreaded "Market-Timers," an awesome group of investors, who know exactly when the market is going to crash.
Of course, once you sell & have taxes on the profits, which are then setting in low or no yield accounts, you have to then time the market to get back in.
Aye lads, that Market Timing is a tricky business, but there's plenty of folks that do it & plenty of folks that rue it.
I have on occasion looked at a Vanguard Mutual Fund I have done well with, & decided it was time to step aside. I made a ton of gains with Vanguard Energy Fund from 2002 to 2008 & transfered most of my money out of it near its peak in the fall of 2008. It is now well below that peak, but I'm completely out of it.
So------my wife & I are "buy & hold" investors, who occasionally move money from one investment to another. The last few years we have been converting stock gains into bond investments, but still hold about 60% stocks to 40% bonds.
We have quite a bit of our portfolio in the Vanguard Ginnie Mae fund, which is about as safe an investment as a bond fund can be, but also has the low yields one would expect of a safe investment. It has replaced the Money-market bank accounts we used to keep. When we need some money, we write a check on it & transfer funds into our non-interest bearing checking account.
Disclaimer! There are no "perfectly safe" investments. The stock market will have more crashes. Considering the insane man that claims to be our president & his ways, the market could crash tomorrow, or not.
|
|
|
SuperTopo on the Web
|
Let us know!