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MikeL
climber
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I read the article as requested.
If you really believe the thesis, Karl, you should sell oil futures. Your path is simple. Then when you've made your millions or billions, you can show us you and the thesis were right.
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Karl Baba
Trad climber
Yosemite, Ca
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What's your basis for not buying the article? It's pretty documented. Where's the loophole. Only the timing is really in question.
And timing is a big issue in oil futures. The big money can certainly squeeze shorts and play games.
The biggest game of all has been companies and nations overstating their reserves (Shell by 25% and OPEC nations by up to %50) to bolster their stock prices and OPEC quotas.
If I had money to invest, there would be lots of oil related plays out there.
Not my karma though. Too many sharks in the water and I'm not one. Look how long the dot.com bubble went on long after reasonable folks knew it was unsustainable.
Peace
Karl
Edit' I have no investment in being right and would prefer to be wrong. I've been wrong about other things according to some women and why not this?
Just don't count on it. Do your own research, place your own bets, Take responsibility for the consequences.
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MikeL
climber
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Karl, my taste in research favors something qualitatively different in tone. As I've said before elsewhere on this site and often, I doubt that certainty and clarity exist nearly as much as some people do about almost any issue whatsoever. I just don't see the world black and white, morally, objectively, or artistically. The sense of clarity, certainty, and operating conspiracies make for dramatic stories and movies, but I try not to confuse those with the world around me.
(I also don't believe in conspiracy theories because I don't think they can be engineered very well consistently. Come to think of it, I don't know of any conspiracy of any magnitude that actually worked historically, do you?)
I think reality is far too complex, nuanced, unpredictable, and people are far too unskilled.
The sky isn't falling. Sure bad things will happen, but it's not the end of the earth or life as we know it. But change will happen, invariably. You'll get another president, there will be some "problems" that will get fixed at the expense of some other issue, and new problems that you can't imagine will arise to make us all tremble in awe. Again, it makes for great drama, but let's not all become survivalists in Idaho (sorry, Idaho) and take to the streets in revolution. (Very few of those work out well, either.)
I think that we'd be much more likely to help the life on this earth if we could do just one thing: settle down. People could try not to get all embroiled in their outrage, their righteousness, and their anger. I think a sense of outrage and righteousness is causing more problems than the resource allocation concerns.
But that's not what trips people's trolleys on this site. I think people like getting angry.
Anger is the basis for the worst karma in the universe.
Peace.
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the Fet
Knackered climber
A bivy sack in the secret campground
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Hi Karl,
I read the link and even on that page there are disagreements about when and how bad the oil crunch will be.
Demand will go up, supply will go down, oil will get more expensive. People will conserve. Alternatives will be developed.
Will it impact our economy, surely. But humans are resourceful. We will find a way to sustain ourselves. Maybe we'll have another depression. But I doubt society will crumble and we'll be back to the stoneage. There's other things to worry about too, a massive terror attack could cripple the worldwide economy (especialy if timed right). An asteroid could hit, etc. We should take the steps we can to prepare for catastrophes, but history has shown over and over how resilient humans are.
And the age of America is already over. I remember 15 years ago a friend from Africa saying this was the age of the US and it's coming to a close. I thought he was full of it on both accounts. But the last 7 years has showed me otherwise. We've gone from leading the world to dragging our feet on many issues, staying obsessed with money, giving up justice and the world's strongest economy because enough people are scared sheep and buy into all the BS that is fed them.
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Karl Baba
Trad climber
Yosemite, Ca
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MikeL
Thanks for your response. I'm confused because you focused on addressing anger and conspiracy theory and I didn't feel like my posts nor that link were angry at all. Folks get angry when they hear things won't be as they desire but the info is simply information and disabuse of people's denial that "it's just one on many problems in our world that will be worked out after a few bumps"
The peak oil conspiracy is a little like the Iraq war conspiracy. Everybody knows we didn't attack that place because they had WMDs but nothing is being done about it. The people who know and care don't have the power to dump the crooks.
Everybody knows the OPEC nations overstated their reserves when they instituted the quota system. What cha gonna do about it.
as for the quality of research, that link is a synopsis which has hundreds of links underlying it's claims. Some links might be iffy, some are to oil and government doc. I think a real refutation would me more than the simple faith that "it'll work out, this is probably overblown:
Peace
Karl
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WBraun
climber
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MikeL
There are two types of anger, transcendental and material.
The first anger creates no karma the second does.
Anger can never be eliminated because, anger, is eternal.
There are three modes in material nature: Goodness, Passion, and Ignorance.
According to ones consciousness at the time of anger, one is in one of these modes.
When one transcends these 3 modes then anger is displayed perfectly and begets the perfect result.
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