Climate Change skeptics? [ot]

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monolith

climber

SF bay area

Sep 15, 2013 - 10:36pm PT

rick sumner

Trad climber

reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska

Sep 15, 2013 - 10:37pm PT

Chiloe

Trad climber

Lee, NH

Sep 15, 2013 - 10:52pm PT

Your last graph shows a relatively flat plateau up till '90, Larry. The Twenty two years remaining is short of the 30 years commonly described as the minimum separation between just weather and climate.

You're finding ways to squint at the data. August 31 PIOMAS declines an average of 330 km^3/year over 1979-2013. If we cherry-pick 1979-1990 because that looks "relatively flat" to you, the trend is still declining but just by 76 km^3/year. And then the flip side of your cherry-pick, 1991-2013 trend is going down by 468 km^3/year. The latter is highly significant, but dividing up the data and then saying the pieces are too small for conclusions makes no sense to begin with.

Now where do you think that ice thickness will be next spring-significantly towards multi year ice or what?

By definition, whatever ice survives a few summers is multi-year ice.

For simplicity I've been referring just to linear trends here, but IMO a nonlinear S-curve (Gompertz) gives a better fit, among other things because it well describes the observed initial slow decline then steepening fall, followed by a slower, hypothetically asymptotic approach to zero.

rick sumner

Trad climber

reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska

Sep 15, 2013 - 11:04pm PT

And, so far this year, don't we have a steep incline up out of the low of 2012? I wonder how many times in the pre satellite era that the sea ice extent and thickness rivaled that of the last decade. Let's take a look below at 1958 Larry. Perhaps 1958 was at the bottom of another steep decline.

http://www.ihatethemedia.com/photo-north-pole-submarine

wilbeer

Mountain climber

honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys

Sep 15, 2013 - 11:08pm PT

wow.

Chiloe

Trad climber

Lee, NH

Sep 15, 2013 - 11:19pm PT

Here's a brief review I wrote last year, placing satellite-era Arctic ice observations in the context of recent longer-term studies:

Although daily satellite observations go back only to the 1970s, declassified Cold War submarine observations show that Arctic ice has been declining since the 1950s, so the remaining cover increasingly consists of thinner seasonal ice (Kwok and Rothrock 2009). Historical records indicate that the seasonal ice zone, an area of northern seas that is ice-covered in winter but not in late summer, has been expanding gradually since 1870, and more rapidly in the past three decades (Kinnard et al. 2008). Proxy evidence suggests that the recent declines in Arctic sea ice extent and volume are unprecedented over the past 1,450 years (Kinnard et al. 2011) if not more (Polyak et al. 2010), as is the intrusion of warmer Atlantic waters into the Arctic Ocean (Spielhagen et al. 2011). In the past few decades, shelves of glacial ice more than 3,000 years old have broken apart due to warming in the Canadian Arctic (England et al. 2008). Thus, a broad range of indicators at decadal to millennial time scales confirm the exceptional nature of ice reductions that have recently been observed in the Arctic.

monolith

climber

SF bay area

Sep 15, 2013 - 11:26pm PT

The 'skeptics' claim this is a pic of the USS Skate at the North Pole in 1958.

Unfortunately for them, the Skate never surfaced at the North Pole in 1958.

There are pics of submarines at the north pole, but they show a fair amount of ice. They like the Skate pic because it shows very little ice.

On 30 July, Skate steamed to the Arctic where she operated under the ice for 10 days. During this time, she surfaced nine times through the ice, navigated over 2,400 miles (3,900 km) under it, and on 11 August, 9:47 pm EDT [1] (the week after USS Nautilus) became the second sea ship to reach the North Pole, earning the Navy Unit Commendation award for "... braving the hazards of the polar ice pack...." She did, however, not surface at the North Pole. On 23 August, she steamed into Bergen, Norway. The submarine made port calls in the Netherlands, Belgium, and France before returning to New London on 25 September 1958.

rick sumner

Trad climber

reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska

Sep 15, 2013 - 11:30pm PT

Riley, two years before you left the Alaskan Arctic started cooling. Nineteen Of the twenty first order weather stations in AK have shown a steady decline averaging 2.4 f since then.

There you go again with the proxy record reconstructions in lieu of observational facts Larry. It cannot be definitively stated that the last decade is unprecedented in the last 1450 years with any degree of certainty. Certainly a steep, rapid decline and then rebound would be difficult if not impossible to detect.

Mono- look at Ed's post then throw away your liberal blog disinformation.

Ed where is your secret crag-east, north, south, how far?

wilbeer

Mountain climber

honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys

Sep 15, 2013 - 11:34pm PT

So that shrapnel is in your nugget right?

And notice the, "There you go again " remark.

monolith

climber

SF bay area

Sep 15, 2013 - 11:37pm PT

Read the comments from navy personnel, Sumner. It was March, 1959.

USS Skate did indeed surface at the North Pole but not until 17 March 1959. Ice conditions in August 1958 were too heavy at the Pole for the Skate to surface, as they were for the Nautilus some days earlier. The Skate did surface in several other leads and polynya that August, including one near Ice-station Alfa. The above picture may have been from one of those.

Chiloe

Trad climber

Lee, NH

Sep 15, 2013 - 11:43pm PT

In 1958 the Nautilus made the first underwater transit of the North Pole (but did not surface). The voyage was almost defeated at the start when they encountered ice 60 feet deep in the Bering Strait, in mid-June. In recent years including this one, that area has been ice-free well before then.

rick sumner

Trad climber

reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska

Sep 15, 2013 - 11:46pm PT

Looks to be as muddled as the ice free pole picture of this summer. Maybe there was two surfacings, one at or near the pole in summer and one at or near the pole in winter to test the icebreaking capability through thin winter ice. At any rate the ice looks to be rather thin for this early date. Ed's first link looked like official naval history.

monolith

climber

SF bay area

Sep 15, 2013 - 11:58pm PT

USS Skate, at North Pole, March 17, 1959.

monolith

climber

SF bay area

Sep 16, 2013 - 12:04am PT

Who needs the Sierra Club or the BBC's opinion on an ice-free date?

rick sumner

Trad climber

reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska

Sep 16, 2013 - 12:05am PT

I followed one of the links in the comments of the naval history blog and found a news article from time that said there was indeed two surfacings at the pole- first in summer 1958 right behind Nautilus' passage and again in winter 1959. It was Ed's second link which he didn't read with careful enough attention. Even a professor has reading comprehension difficulties at times.

rick sumner

Trad climber

reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska

Sep 16, 2013 - 12:16am PT

Yes Ed, two polar surfacings, case solved thankyou.

dirtbag

climber

Sep 16, 2013 - 01:06am PT

^^^^^ Short man complex. ^^^^

BLUEBLOCR

Social climber

joshua tree

Sep 16, 2013 - 03:12am PT

^^^^ He doesn't seem that much different than you'all. Other than opinion.

You can't stop a war by keep fighting. Or by quitting (someone else will jus stand up for ya).
Two must stop, and shake hands..