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JEleazarian
Trad climber
Fresno CA
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Feb 24, 2010 - 06:39pm PT
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Chiloe, I want to make sure I'm reading your graph correctly. This is mean temperature times 100? Also, is this data available for earlier time periods?
The thing that struck me when I began examining the data was the relative stability of recent temperature measures for most of the 20th Century. I've been too lazy to do a variance analysis, but I suspect the fluctuations during the last century were less than what we experienced before. Does this sound plausible?
On an entirely different note, I see there's a lot of seeming mutual intellectual contempt going on on this thread lately (but not by you, Chiloe). Calling someone stupid can be satisfyingly cathartic, but it's a poor form of advocacy. I've always appreciated your responding with data and references.
John
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Feb 24, 2010 - 06:43pm PT
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John, those are temperature anomalies times 100. The instrumental record is too incomplete to estimate earlier temperatures well, so that's where proxies are needed. Proxies are validated where possible by times when they overlap with the instrumental record, but that's a whole other conversation -- it's where the tree-ring stuff that's confused the denialists comes in.
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JEleazarian
Trad climber
Fresno CA
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Feb 24, 2010 - 06:47pm PT
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Thanks. I should have read your graph more carefully, but my brain is already fried this week (I've been rushing to get too many pleadings on file).
John
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corniss chopper
Mountain climber
san jose, ca
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Feb 24, 2010 - 06:57pm PT
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WMO: “. . . we cannot at this time conclusively identify anthropogenic signals in past tropical cyclone data.”
24 02 2010
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued a stunning statement in a recent report. Roger Pielke Jr. has the details on his blog.
Just to remind folks that we’ve been saying much the same thing for months on WUWT:
Global Warming = more hurricanes | Still not happening. Warmists use of anti depressives skyrockets.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Feb 24, 2010 - 07:26pm PT
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I suspect the fluctuations during the last century were less than what we experienced before. Does this sound plausible?
John, that's an interesting question -- I know it's been looked at, but I don't recall what they found.
On a more paleo scale, I do know that the Polar Circulation Intensity index from the GISP 2 ice core makes an astonishing graph with a prehistoric variance 10 times that of postglacial and historical periods. Seeing that was one of the first times I realized what a sleeping dragon our climate is.
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blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
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Feb 24, 2010 - 08:29pm PT
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it's where the tree-ring stuff that's confused the denialists comes in.
Actually I think what you call the "denialists" have a pretty good understanding of the "tree-ring stuff"--the hoaxers pick and choose from whatever datasets they want until they get those nice graphs that you like to copy. You may need to take some tree-ring data here, some observed temp data there, oh sh#t, let's try it again the other way around, ahhh, that's a good "trick" . . .
I read the emails. They "speak for themselves" as the lawyers say.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Feb 24, 2010 - 08:35pm PT
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I read the emails. They "speak for themselves" as the lawyers say.
Taught you dendrochronology, did they? Dude, you're 0 for 3 in recent posts.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Feb 24, 2010 - 09:01pm PT
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Going back to John's question of whether variance is decreasing, my look at the 1880-2009 GISS data says no. I ran the analysis a couple of ways, both suggesting a slight increase in variation over this period. Here's one version, showing the 10-90th percentiles spreading out:
I'm sure this is not the last word, though.
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John_Box
Ice climber
Bellingham
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Feb 24, 2010 - 11:02pm PT
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Going to go out on a limb and call myself stupid. Chiloe, I have absolutely no idea what you are showing in the Global Temperature Anomaly graph, could you explain a little? More specifically the Y axis please. Temperature anomalies are referring to what, winter's like in the Northeast? I thought I had a handle on most of the verbage, but I guess not.
Thanks.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Feb 24, 2010 - 11:46pm PT
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del cross:
I can't help but wonder if Chiloe had a bad experience with fractions in 3rd grade.
Is that your best guess?
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Feb 25, 2010 - 11:59am PT
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John Box:
Going to go out on a limb and call myself stupid. Chiloe, I have absolutely no idea what you are showing in the Global Temperature Anomaly graph, could you explain a little? More specifically the Y axis please.
Not a stupid question at all, John. Temperature anomalies in NASA's GISTEMP dataset are reported in hundredths of a degree Celsius, relative to a baseline or zero point established from the local average temperature over the period 1951-1980. My "global temperature anomaly" graphs simply plotted the GISTEMP values, plus a few lines or curves I added to highlight different aspects of the trend.
Here's how the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration explains the reason climate data often use temperature anomalies.
"Why use temperature anomalies (departure from average) and not absolute temperature measurements?
Absolute estimates of global average surface temperature are difficult to compile for several reasons. Some regions have few temperature measurement stations (e.g., the Sahara Desert) and interpolation must be made over large, data-sparse regions. In mountainous areas, most observations come from the inhabited valleys, so the effect of elevation on a region’s average temperature must be considered as well. For example, a summer month over an area may be cooler than average, both at a mountain top and in a nearby valley, but the absolute temperatures will be quite different at the two locations. The use of anomalies in this case will show that temperatures for both locations were below average.
Using reference values computed on smaller [more local] scales over the same time period establishes a baseline from which anomalies are calculated. This effectively normalizes the data so they can be compared and combined to more accurately represent temperature patterns with respect to what is normal for different places within a region.
For these reasons, large-area summaries incorporate anomalies, not the temperature itself. Anomalies more accurately describe climate variability over larger areas than absolute temperatures do, and they give a frame of reference that allows more meaningful comparisons between locations and more accurate calculations of temperature trends."
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Feb 25, 2010 - 05:15pm PT
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Hah, del, sorry I mistook you for just another doofus. blahblah was too fresh in mind.
As for seasonal cycles, I'm not sure what that NOAA table you mention is doing -- those look like absolute temps, so they're defined a different way from the anomalies I had graphed.
In the monthly anomaly data, on the other hand, I wouldn't expect to see a seasonal cycle (and don't) -- I think those are deviations from base-period monthly means within each region.
The anomalies are not standardized for variance, however, so a seasonal pattern remains there.
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Gene
Social climber
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Feb 26, 2010 - 08:23pm PT
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corniss chopper
Mountain climber
san jose, ca
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Feb 26, 2010 - 08:58pm PT
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Now that Al Gore and the IPCC are laughed at openly the tar and feathering
will really begin to snowball.
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corniss chopper
Mountain climber
san jose, ca
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Feb 26, 2010 - 10:47pm PT
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New world Eco shamans
Shamans have been credited with the ability to control the weather, divination, the interpretation of dreams, astral projection, and traveling to upper and lower worlds.
Shamanistic traditions have existed throughout the world since prehistoric times but only now have those following this irrational behavior figured a way to make big big money, a la carbon credits.
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Mimi
climber
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Feb 27, 2010 - 02:07am PT
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Here's the sixth. I made a pact a long time ago to not interact with your sorry ass. I once again gave you the time of day only to be reminded of how pitiful you are. Lessons learned.
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corniss chopper
Mountain climber
san jose, ca
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Feb 27, 2010 - 02:12am PT
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Weschrist doesn't know it but his desire to prevent GW would be disastrous to the environment in the slim chance it might work. Stabilizing the global climate as is for humans would be a disaster.
Bet he can't play chess above beginners level either.
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Mimi
climber
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Feb 27, 2010 - 02:14am PT
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But he's big on the pebbles.
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Mimi
climber
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Feb 27, 2010 - 02:22am PT
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What makes you so bitter, dude?
And being such a misanthrope, since when do you give a crap about someone falling off a TR boulder problem? You always did try to hold on to the belief that climbing is safe. What up with that?
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Mimi
climber
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Feb 27, 2010 - 02:38am PT
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Wow! You're up to a full half rope now? Are you getting nosebleeds at that dizzying height?
Oh, Less. That's really great.
Okay, Pinocchio, 110 it is.
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