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Jaybro
Social climber
Wolf City, Wyoming
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May 28, 2018 - 07:48pm PT
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Only just lately, if so...
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zBrown
Ice climber
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May 28, 2018 - 08:04pm PT
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Misinfo abounds
Q1 -5
Q2 -6
Q3 +18
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blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
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May 28, 2018 - 08:08pm PT
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Houston finally just a made a 3 after missing 27 in a row! That is a truly amazing statistic. My quick calculation is that streak would be expected to happen something like once in 50000 trials (my math may be off a bit, but the point is that Houston's 27 missing streak is epically bad).
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monolith
climber
state of being
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May 28, 2018 - 08:42pm PT
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What club will Harden party at tonight?
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Trump
climber
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May 29, 2018 - 11:40am PT
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One team wins, the other team loses.
The warriors have been pretty good in the third quarter, and they were good in the third quarter again. They’ve been pretty good in the playoffs the last couple of years, and they’re good again this year.
Lots of analysis and hand waving, but the result isn’t really that surprising. Folks seemed to forget pretty quickly how they said the warriors were gonna crush the rockets in the first place. What’s the probability that we wouldn’t be able to find some/one/any surprising statistic in retrospect? Less surprising than we think.
I love watching Lebron. This should be good!
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blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
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May 29, 2018 - 12:21pm PT
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My previous post deserves a bump:
Houston finally just a made a 3 after missing 27 in a row! That is a truly amazing statistic. My quick calculation is that streak would be expected to happen something like once in 50000 trials (my math may be off a bit, but the point is that Houston's 27 missing streak is epically bad).
Turns out my math skills were quite good as a first order approximation: the odds of Houston missing that many 3s in a row is really 1 in 72000
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-odds-of-the-rockets-missing-that-many-3s-1-in-72000/
Houston lost for a very simple reason: they were historically inept at making 3s, yet tried, pathetically, time after time. It was amazing to behold really.
I don't watch a lot of basketball, but each team looked pretty bad, kind of like what you might see with some hotshots on a playground, obviously good players but seemingly zero intelligent decision making or coaching.
Houston's coach should be fired, the other guy wasn't very good either.
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Roger Breedlove
climber
Cleveland Heights, Ohio
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May 29, 2018 - 01:21pm PT
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You state the case that the Rockets lost because they took 27 three point shots that all missed, a one in 72,000 chance. So, the coach should be fired? During the NBA playoffs 16 teams compete; one makes it.
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Trump
climber
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May 29, 2018 - 01:58pm PT
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My sense of it is that the rockets were effective on defense when the warriors didn’t score very well. When the warriors scored fewer points than the rockets, the rockets won. It seems almost as simple to me as human psychology seems.
They were 3-2 with Chris Paul and 0-2 without him, but I’m not quite ready to draw a straight line between that (or the rockets defense) and missing 27 in a row. But there may be a connection lurking somewhere outside of my understanding.
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monolith
climber
state of being
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May 29, 2018 - 03:10pm PT
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blahblah is hilarious!
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zBrown
Ice climber
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May 29, 2018 - 04:48pm PT
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It is reported that of their 3 point attempts:
R's made 7 of 44
W's made 16 of 39
Bout 16 & 41 %
Last two games of the series second half scoring
W 122
R 63
3 point field goal % is the 7th column
RK TEAM PTS FGM FGA FG% 3PM 3PA 3P% FTM FTA FT% PPS AFG%
1 Minnesota 101.6 38.0 82.6 .460 9.0 21.8 .413 16.6 22.8 .728 1.23 .515
2 Miami 103.4 36.6 82.8 .442 10.8 27.6 .391 19.4 28.6 .678 1.25 .507
3 Toronto 107.3 38.9 82.3 .473 10.4 26.7 .390 19.1 23.9 .799 1.30 .536
4 Milwaukee 101.9 39.1 78.3 .500 9.6 25.7 .372 14.0 19.9 .705 1.30 .561
5 Washington 107.2 39.7 85.2 .466 8.0 21.8 .366 19.8 23.3 .850 1.26 .513
New Orleans 110.0 42.9 89.8 .478 9.9 27.0 .366 14.3 18.3 .782 1.23 .533
7 Oklahoma City 101.2 37.2 86.5 .430 10.5 28.8 .364 16.3 21.2 .772 1.17 .490
8 Utah 102.4 37.7 82.9 .455 10.7 29.9 .359 16.2 23.5 .687 1.23 .520
9 Indiana 100.6 38.6 80.1 .481 9.7 27.1 .358 13.7 19.3 .711 1.25 .542
10 Golden State 109.1 40.7 86.3 .472 10.8 30.8 .352 16.9 20.7 .815 1.26 .534
RK TEAM PTS FGM FGA FG% 3PM 3PA 3P% FTM FTA FT% PPS AFG%
11 Boston 101.4 36.4 83.3 .437 10.5 30.6 .343 18.1 23.5 .767 1.22 .500
12 Cleveland 101.2 36.7 79.6 .461 10.3 30.3 .339 17.6 23.2 .756 1.27 .525
13 Philadelphia 108.8 38.7 88.5 .437 9.9 29.3 .338 21.5 28.3 .760 1.23 .493
14 Houston 104.9 37.2 85.3 .436 13.4 39.8 .337 17.2 22.2 .772 1.23 .514
15 Portland 105.5 41.3 91.0 .453 10.8 32.3 .333 12.3 15.8 .778 1.16 .512
16 San Antonio 96.8 34.6 83.8 .413 8.4
Houston .337
Oakland .352
All the probably talk is meaningless. There is no way of knowing the probability that a 3 point shot will be made.
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Roger Breedlove
climber
Cleveland Heights, Ohio
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May 30, 2018 - 06:07pm PT
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Probabilities are never meaningless; but they are just probabilities.
The most interesting number on you statistics table are the average number of 3's made. All the teams seem to be clustered around 9-10 per game except the Rockets which were above 13. That is a significant outlier.
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zBrown
Ice climber
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May 30, 2018 - 07:34pm PT
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It's the talk here that's meaningless.
All the ptobability theoretic talk presumes, e.g., non-existent conditions such as "fair" coin tosses.
There are no fair shots taken in the NBA
EIDT:
iT'S HEARTENING TO SEE THAT SOMEONE ACTUALLY LOOKS AT THE NUMBERS, ROGER. GOOD EYE ON THE SHOTz MADE. i DIDN'T CATCH IT.
Just had eye seurgery myself yesterday.
Including Optiwave Refractory Analysis
Gonna be banging out those threes just like in yesteryear.
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monolith
climber
state of being
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May 30, 2018 - 07:41pm PT
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The 538 people did far more than just use the simple average.
To get a better sense, FiveThirtyEight leaned on Quantified Shot Probability (qSP) data — used to weigh the likelihood of a shot going in depending on who’s taking it, how close the nearest defender is to the shot, and how quickly that player is closing out — from Second Spectrum and NBA Advanced Stats, which use high-level cameras to track on-court movement.
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zBrown
Ice climber
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May 31, 2018 - 01:53pm PT
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Cousin 'dword'freddieBrown has been retired since 1984 so my one hope for the series
Is that the numb numb nuts announcers will give him a rest
And just say something like Curry just
Unloaded one from Seattle or Airstrip One
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Roger Breedlove
climber
Cleveland Heights, Ohio
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May 31, 2018 - 06:28pm PT
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So, now the 1st game as begun, the best team against the most inconsistent good team. A team with five great players, and a team with the current best player. 538 puts the probability of Cavs winning at .25.
But with all the talk about probabilities up thread, who knows. Speaking of probability, strictly from a statistical point of view, all probabilities are estimates holding all else constant. This means that there are always factors which are left out, which by definition determines the uncertainty. If this weren't the case there would be no degrees or freedom and there would not be a probability, or, rather, all probabilities would be 1. Sort of like yesterday.
Second speaking of probabilities, when the Warriors were playing the Rockets, I was torn. Should I hope the Rockets win because we cannot beat the Warriors, or should I hope that the Warriors win because they were considered the underdogs and not as likely to win and we would be more likely to beat them. If A is greater than B and B is greater than C, then C is either greater or less than A. It turns out that I had not say in the matter.
I hope the game is good. I am happy that Love can play and I am sorry that Igoudala is still out. Best play in memory is James chasing down and blocking Igoudala's layup.
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zBrown
Ice climber
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May 31, 2018 - 07:07pm PT
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... blocking Igoudala's layup.
Great performance by elBrown, but still an illegal pin. Will be forever.
He rolled (trapped) the ball across the backboard, which is a pin. It's still being argued (incorrectly) to his day. :}
According to Rule 11, § I e. of the Official Rules for NBA - 2015-2016 season, a player shall not trap the ball against the backboard after the ball has been released. To be a trapped ball, three elements must exist simultaneously: contact between the ball, the hand, and the backboard.
This does not mean that the player's hand has to touch the backboard. The player's hand simply has to be touching the ball at the same time that the ball is touching the backboard.
Video evidence shows that, after Andre Iguodala released the ball, Lebron James' hand makes contact with the ball first. Then, for a split second, Lebron's hand, the ball, and the backboard all make contact simultaneously. That constitutes a trapped ball, and because the trap occurred after Iguodala released the ball, the trap is illegal in violation of Rule 11, § I e.
Whether or not Lebron's hand touched the ball before he trapped the ball against the backboard is completely inconsequential to whether Lebron's block was illegal. Whether the trap against the backboard occurred for only a split second or even a fraction thereof is also completely inconsequential to whether the trap is illegal. The rules contain no exception for length of time or for when the player's hand makes contact with the ball before the player's hand, the ball, and the backboard come into contact simultaneously.
The rules do say that a batted ball against the backboard is not a trapped ball. According to the video, Lebron does appear to initially bat the ball against the backboard. However, after the initial contact, Lebron's hand touches the ball while the ball is touching the backboard. Despite the initial batting of the ball, because Lebron's hand touched the ball while the ball touched the backboard, the contact constitutes a trapped ball in violation of Rule 11, § I e.
Furthermore, a trap against the backboard after the ball is released is illegal whether the trap is conducted by any NBA player playing in any other NBA game during the 2015-2016 season, according to the Official NBA Rules for the 2015-2016 season.
BTW, neither of them is Ali, but here's a comparison of MJ and Lebron after 1072 regular season games each.
MJ And LeBron: By The Numbers
MJ LEBRON
15
Seasons
15
706-366 (.659)
Record
716-356 (.668)
41,011
Career minutes
41,688
32,292 (4th)
Career points
29,105 (7th)
30.1
Points per game
27.2
6.2
Rebounds per game
7.3
5.3
Assists per game
7.1
0.8
Blocks per game
0.8
2.3
Steals per game
1.6
31
50-point games
11
28
Triple-doubles
56
* Regular-season only
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monolith
climber
state of being
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May 31, 2018 - 07:59pm PT
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Second, James did not trap the ball simultaneously with his hand, the backboard and the ball. He touched the ball before it hit the glass.
Simultaneously means the hand is touching the ball against the glass.
Do you really think the refs are required to judge that the hand contacts the ball at the same exact time the ball touches the glass?
Really? Sheesh!
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zBrown
Ice climber
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May 31, 2018 - 08:11pm PT
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Not that I'm counting but I'd probably be willing to bet there were a lot more dwords than Seattles uttered tonight.
Warriors should win this one, but not as"handily" as expected.
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