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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Sure, the temp rise looks completely natural.
No one's burying the last 15 years.
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Skeptimistic
Mountain climber
La Mancha
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I thought this was supposed to be friendly place to discuss and debate
We jumped that shark about 13K posts ago...
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Hey Chief, what's this Spitzer business?
Maybe you can clue us in on your latest delusion?
It'll give you a chance to post some of your mindless pics.
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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wtf? you seem a little off today, Chief.
I mean more than usual.
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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And the oceans continue to warm.
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Dumbass, ENSO affects the surface of the ocean, and that's where the heat transfer with the atmosphere takes place.
El Niño is warming, La Niña is cooling. They ride on top of the general warming trend.
Here it is for you again:
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Removing ENSO, Volcanic and Solar from the past reveals the consistent warming trend.
You seem to accept that now, and now whine about predictions. Good boy.
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BLUEBLOCR
Social climber
joshua tree
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I’m happy to play that game. Let’s look at the entire hockey stick – going
back to 1850. It indicates 0.7C warming over the past 163 years, which
extrapolates to a laughable 0.38C warming for the rest of the century.
Doesn't this show you (prove) that the earth is naturally warming, even regardless of mans interaction? Even with the use of weaksauce science from 1800's.
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BLUEBLOCR
Social climber
joshua tree
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calling me demeaning names and a wuss or whatever
Does it ever stop?
Maybe with a simple apology? Then maybe we can get back to serious matters?
Even though I think this is more important than the weather!!
Edit : maybe again could you tell me why co2 is bad for us?
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mountainlion
Trad climber
California
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the chief let me get this straight...
you are self sufficient but live on SOCIAL SECURITY???
you bash dams but live in a desert and then post irragation systems supplied by DAMS??? or have it your way "a privately owned water source"--provide records of ownership please...and where it is sourced...
BTW BASE asked you what wealth you have created EVER???
sucking off the govt. TEET wich you so despise...now I'm beginning to understand you hate the TASTE of the TEET because you have suckled for so long...most parents ween their babies after a few years...wildlife kick the polar bear cubs to the curb around 3...
Seems to me you would have figured out a way to provide for yourself and your family by now...but instead you ask us to PAY YOUR WAY...
Post up the x-rays or medical documents if you have them from any combat operations...just saying you were injured in combat isn't enough...and so what if you were...your no better than any of the thousands who risked there lives and the true HEROES who DIED for our country...just buried my cousin last week at Fort Leavenworth JERRY FRANS U.S.M.C.
viewing the pic of your suburban utopia in the desert with everybody being a right wing prick ...are you the ex-military dude Kris Kristofferson portrayed who was homophobic but also homo-curios??? I bet you don't need much of a fire dept. there that is why everybody is a member of the "volunteer" fire dept. that is until the sh#t hits the fan...then us taxpayers will come to the RESCUE but in the chiefs mind like the big lebowskie "they will kidnap/rescue themselves"
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BASE104
Social climber
An Oil Field
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TC has made this thread impossible to post to. Abrams posted a link and nobody batted an eyelash.
Check out the website where he gets his info:
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/
You can go to this "science site" right now and read why we should bomb Syria. It is a total bullshit website and nobody cares. All it is is a TC hate fest.
Gotta get back to work. My computer is finishing a data update.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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TC has made this thread impossible to post to.
Yes, it's unfortunate that Chief can always bring this thread back to focus on himself. There's a lot of potential for sharing real information and questions from different perspectives including Ed's impressively wide grasp, Base's deep-time view, and many others such as those ocean charts that Monolith keeps posting and not one of the deniers seems able to read.
A few pages back I posted some notes about an important new paper by Kosaka and Xie, which quantifies the contribution of ENSO to atmospheric warming and cooling. This paper is too new to make the deadline for the forthcoming IPCC report, which really needs it, but it is getting good discussion on blogs. Judith Curry misreads the core point, but John Nielsen-Gammon has a particularly good post today:
Kosaka and Xie find that the POGA-H run [which includes Pacific sea surface temperatures associated with El Niño and La Niña, in addition to greenhouse forcing] reproduces the hiatus, along with most other interannual variations in global surface temperature (correlation 0.97 since 1970). In addition, it reproduces most of the key observed regional variations in warming, both during the rapid rise of 1971-1997 and the hiatus period of 2002-2012. All of this, to me, is convincing evidence that any explanation for the hiatus must pass through the tropical central and eastern Pacific.
There are two possible explanations. One is that the natural variability in the central and eastern tropical Pacific (which is known to be quite variable) randomly happened to evolve in such a way that it favored a cooling trend in surface temperatures for the past fifteen or so years, one that was almost strong enough to offset the longer-term global warming trend. The second is that the particular evolution of surface temperature in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, rather than being independent of global warming, is actually being caused by it.
The implication of explanation number one is that the effect of natural variability will soon reverse and global atmospheric warming will resume at its previous pace. The implication of explanation number two is that for an extended but unknown period of time, the tropical Pacific will continue to evolve in a La Niña fashion, maintaining a slow rate of temperature rise for quite some time. Kosaka and Xie argue that explanation number one is more likely, and I agree. Several pieces of evidence point toward explanation number one and away from explanation number two, but none of them are conclusive at this point.
More at
http://blog.chron.com/climateabyss/2013/08/learning-from-the-hiatus/
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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FM, I try to post key paragraphs in addition to abstracts with many of the articles I cite, for just that reason. The reason for paywalls is simple economics -- like all other kinds of publishers, academic publishers need money to stay in business. They get most of that from library subscriptions, which they could not sell (and hence would go out of business) if they posted the articles for free.
It is usually possible for a researcher to pay some fee upfront to the journal, to make their article public. Of course that money has to come from somewhere too. We *could* include publication fees in each grant proposal, but the tradeoff is they aren't cheap, and can eat substantially into the money available to actually do the research. If you have a large grant and few papers the bite might not be very deep, but otherwise that's not the case. Also, many papers are finally published well after the grant period has ended; many others describe work done on a shoestring, with little or no grant support.
If you write an author and ask politely, he or she will often send you a pdf of the paper.
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nature
climber
Boulder, CO
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I've e-mailed Springer Verlag, Nature,
weird... never got those emails. I wasn't flipping you the bird. Honestly. Good post FM.
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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2012,hottest year on record in the US,
shipping lines opened in the arctic,
US snowfall average lowest recorded,
ocean levels rising,
species relocating,
permafrost receding worldwide,
glaciers gone,
more extreme weather events,I can continue.
Yep its a Hiatus ,and it is all about you Chef.
Go ahead call me names.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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As usual, Chief (Rick Poedtke) is screaming so loud he can't read. He not only missed what Nielsen-Gammon actually said, but hasn't noticed how many times similar points have been made by other people on this thread. For example, last April:
One thing the "warming slowdown" declarations (like the Economist's) often glide past is deep ocean heat content, which vastly exceeds the atmosphere's and has kept on rising.
http://www.supertopo.com/climbing/thread.php?topic_id=970221&msg=2108382#msg2108382
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Sep 3, 2013 - 07:41pm PT
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Is Rick Poedtke really a person, or just an angry robot? Seriously, I can't imagine pure iron being as dense as that entity.
@ The Chief, in all your hundreds of posts, do you think you've made a single valid point? From where I sit, every single one of your points has been refuted. Yet you keep screaming and screaming.
Don't you ever get tired of being at the butt end of every exchange?
And boy, would I be surprised if you proved me wrong. I got $100 here that says you can't do it.
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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It is all about you.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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I would have believed that a few years ago, Chiloe, but the science publishing biz is run by genuine kleptocrats. You reviewers need the rally your comrades and dust off the guillotine:
The Interwebs are certainly shaking things up and will do more, as they have to other kinds of publishing, music and movies. Not sure where it's all headed, and I'm sure there are some undeserving kleptocrats somewhere but also many hard-working folks who just wanna keep their jobs. Anyway, what I described is the current system, under which publications are not free -- somebody has to pay.
While we're waiting for the revolution, it's still a good move to try asking the author for a copy.
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