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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jan 31, 2019 - 10:18pm PT
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former, yer bitterness either clouds yer judgement or prevents you from availing yerself of the voluminous body of knowledge that makes yer rant such a sad exhibition. Do read up on compound interest.
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Aeriq
Sport climber
100-year Visitor
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Jan 31, 2019 - 10:18pm PT
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It's so great to see the comfortable people talking about their wealth distribution.
Such a great contribution to the "Climbers Forum".
Maybe a well-vested, elitist "Hurr Hurr", would be occasionally in order?
F*#k you guys.
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Fritz
Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
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Topic Author's Reply - Feb 1, 2019 - 09:07am PT
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Yep! There's been some bragging about building wealth on this thread, but many of those posting are trying to share information that can help newer investors with stock market investments.
There's been some very useful knowledge shared here, along with some chaff.
No reason to be a hater here, unless you jest enjoy being a "pisser & moaner."
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briham89
Big Wall climber
santa cruz, ca
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but many of those posting are trying to share information that can help newer investors with stock market investments
I have valued this
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formerclimber
Boulder climber
CA
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former, yer bitterness either clouds yer judgement or prevents you from availing yerself of the voluminous body of knowledge that makes yer rant such a sad exhibition. Do read up on compound interest.
It's you who seem to be bitter here. Not wanting to see the reality? Just don't get really bitter if it does crash, in non-correction way.
May be you should go read up on a few things, which I had surely already had "read up" on, or may be take basic math class too. Sure, there's some gain from long term index investment, but not nearly close to what your "compound interest calculator" is telling you, since you like those... because of de facto money de-valuation, which had been major, is not reflected in the official inflation rate -- on top of that, there's non-minor risk being carried at all times. But sure, it's all good while the poof keeps being artificially inflated and the Fed is bending over for the bull crowd, if one got extra 100K to throw in they dk about, why not. Hope yer mutual fund lets you set stop loss.
Oh I think I now know one even better, less overvalued & less risky investment venue...."Ecuador real estate" huh huh, it's global asset bubble party.
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Aeriq
Sport climber
100-year Visitor
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Is there anything more mind-numbing than reading about old white men playing with their money.
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blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
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What "little guy" earns through passive index (like S&P) investing just barely covers the real inflation, that's about it. Say, S&P 500 increase since 1998 was roughly about the same as devaluation of actual dollar purchasing power. If you look at core things like prices of housing, food, medical, etc: prices all went up at close to 3 times or so, during the last 20 years. (I don't mean using "consumer prices index" which is nothing but BS)
No investing in economy here, just desperate clinging to the lifeboat....not much of anything of real value is being added to this economy, mostly exuberance and poof-poof stuff...will probably blow up once the younger folks stuck with student loans, etc realize what short end of the stick they're getting and go for full on socialism or some revolution. Venezuela had main index that diligently climbed...and climbed...because the real driver was devaluation of money, same as with US market.
There are a few flaws in the above.
If the CPI is "nothing but BS," it's in the opposite direction than you suppose--there is a strong consensus that it significantly overstates inflation. You absolutely can cherry pick certain goods/services that have increased more than the CPI, just as you can pick other goods/services that have increased far less.
You seem to disregard dividends, which are lower than they used to be, but are still highly significant to total returns.
And your numbers from 1998 to the present don't hold up, unless you cling to your belief that CPI is too low (which, again, is opposite the mainstream view.)
According to an inflation calculator, what cost $100 in '98 would cost $154 in 2017 (last year for which it had data). Looking at DJIA: on Jan. 1,1998 it was 7,906. On Jan. 1, 2017, it was 19,864. What's it at today? And while average returns are highly dependent on starting and ending dates, you have to cherry pick pretty hard not to get strong long terms results over long term periods, such as the lifetimes of anyone currently alive.
If you still think long term returns of publicly traded companies have barely kept up with inflation, what can I say, you're simply misinformed. Now some people go too far the other direction and think returns have been much higher than they actually have been, perhaps because of inflation. (While you're wrong about the details of inflation, you're right that it must be considered in any long term analysis of returns.)
What returns will we get in the future? Who knows, they could be lower than in the past, they could be negative. If the socialists take over, then all our gooses will be cooked, and those nice returns of the past will just be "the good ol' days." But if you the younger generation can get off their sometimes lazy butts and put in some old fashioned work now and then, we should be able keep these juicy returns rolling in.
Quick edit about inflation to try to put some climbing content in too:
I occasionally see people complain about the cost of climbing equipment (shoes, ropes, whatever). I can assure you that climbing equipment is both much better and much cheaper (in real dollars) than it was since I started climbing (early 1990s, I'm a youngster on this site). When I started climbing, you typically paid full MSRP at the local climbing store. Not sure when the last time is that I paid "full price" for any significant climbing purchase.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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former, nice try. 1/10
I知 not gonna waste my time rebutting scatological non sequiturs.
BlaBla was polite enough to give you some food for thought, if you can feed yerself.
And I already explained why a recession doesn稚 bother me.
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formerclimber
Boulder climber
CA
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^^ CPI is full on BS, if you take on basics (housing - ownership and rental, food, medical), I don't just base off the stats, I remember 1998 costs of living very well, on both coasts (I lived between 2 back then and taking into account costs in 3 types of locations: expensive, mid-range and cheap).
See above, I said there're some returns from index like s&p, just not much in reality because of actual loss of buying power, not the tales they're telling. Risk is also a part of the equation that's not in the miracle returns calculator...and they more they inflate the poof bubble the higher the risk is.
former, nice try. 1/10
I知 not gonna waste my time rebutting scatological non sequiturs.
BlaBla was polite enough to give you some food for thought, if you can feed yerself. I'll no longer bother with your personal attacks, that's all you can do.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Oooh! I知 devastated! Maybe I値l post up the pile of econ and investing books I知 reading.
Nah, there are some two syllable words in the titles.
So riddle me this - why has the Fed been trying to stimulate inflation for years?
I know, they don稚 have a clue.
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formerclimber
Boulder climber
CA
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No need to strain over 2-syllable words if it's so hard....I'm reading investment book "The only way is up cause this bubble can be stretched for one more generation without riots, screw the rest".
Stimulate inflation to what...20%, 200%...or their target rate? Target 2% rate staying still over 20 years situation, if it existed, would not produce price-on-everything increases actually seen, there had been serious devaluation.
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formerclimber
Boulder climber
CA
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"After factoring inflation" isn't reflecting the real loss of buying power.
Actual core consumer prices (including housing expenses) went up close to 3X since 1998, country-wide, but that's not what inflation calculator tool would tell.
As to best investments....it all heavily depends on risk tolerance, not one single vehicle that is "best". In the worst case scenario, real estate would be better than stocks, and gold would be better than RE, so mixing a bit of everything is better - but I'm personally too bearish for any "long-term" investments. Swing trading is the longest I'd hold all this worthless paper.
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blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
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S&P500 seems to be the best long turn investment.
Moose
If I had to pick one asset class to invest in, something like S&P 500 (large publicly traded US equities) is probably the way I'd go. But a little more diversification may be a good idea: why not some exposure to mid caps / small caps, foreign equities, real estate (REITs if you don't want the hassle of direct ownership), and, I shudder as I write this, bonds (rebalanced periodically).
The naysayers may point out that none of this will help "when the sh#t really hits the fan," which I agree with. But not sure what will help then other than survivalist type stuff, which is getting a little far afield from this thread.
Changing gears a bit:
A number of people on this thread have posted standard investing advice along the lines of what any responsible financial adviser would (or at least should) recommend, although you may pay somewhat exorbitant fees, sometimes not always transparent, to get it.
Some others have posted things to the effect of: the stock market is a scam, capitalism is a scam, rich (or even middle class) old white people suck, etc.
While we don't know with 100% certainty which viewpoint is correct, I know which one I see as being more likely to lead to a comfortable retirement in my lifetime. Everyone has to put on their big boy (or girl) pants at some point and make their own decisions. I get the strong sense that some people posting here aren't very happy with some of theirs, hence some bitterness.
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formerclimber
Boulder climber
CA
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S&P perma-bulls are in full force, haha. I wonder how much did they invest, got to help marketwatch pushing the economic miracle agenda.
Would be interesting to hear realistic views instead of permabull rainbow unicorns.
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blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
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S&P perma-bulls are in full force, haha. I wonder how much did they invest, got to help marketwatch pushing the economic miracle agenda.
Would be interesting to hear realistic views instead of permabull rainbow unicorns.
I don't think you have read this thread very carefully (not the worst sin in the world, just an observation).
If you would have, you would see that there are a number of people who have posted on this thread (including myself) who give the same consistent story of long term, generally buy-and-hold, mostly US equity investing consistent with the Bogle / Buffet school.
I can only speak for myself but suspect the others would agree: I have been very happy with my returns. For me, that's from a time period starting in the early/mid 90s. That doesn't mean I will be happy with future returns, but I haven't seen anything that comes close to convincing me that any other strategy is likely to be better than my past strategy. And yes, I understand there will be corrections and bear markets, and in a real bear market, lots of people will wonder "is this time different, is this the end"? And maybe someday it will be. Whether that day will be in my lifetime, I don't know, my biggest concern is creeping (or even sudden) socialism, and there are all sorts of other dangers of course.
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aldude
climber
Monument Manor
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Eat rat poison here X
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formerclimber
Boulder climber
CA
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I don't think you have read this thread very carefully (not the worst sin in the world, just an observation).
If you would have, you would see that there are a number of people who have posted on this thread (including myself) who give the same consistent story of long term, generally buy-and-hold, mostly US equity investing consistent with the Bogle / Buffet school.
I can only speak for myself but suspect the others would agree: I have been very happy with my returns. For me, that's from a time period starting in the early/mid 90s. That doesn't mean I will be happy with future returns, but I haven't seen anything that comes close to convincing me that any other strategy is likely to be better than my past strategy. And yes, I understand there will be corrections and bear markets, and in a real bear market, lots of people will wonder "is this time different, is this the end"? And maybe someday it will be. Whether that day will be in my lifetime, I don't know, my biggest concern is creeping (or even sudden) socialism, and there are all sorts of other dangers of course.
Your observation about me reading the thread is not correct... What I said was about the recent posts, certain bitchin' about long-term bearish sentiments, which happen to be perfectly valid expectations. Even STHF is a valid potential scenario, though I don't realistically expect it during my lifetime (I mean not the 2nd time around)...but who knows, true survivalists might end up being right. Current exuberance period had picked up in the 90s, but I doubt this can be continually propped up and do think major societal changes are ahead, which will affect the market. It's not the same game now as was decades ago...seems like there's qualitative change up in the air.
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ontheedgeandscaredtodeath
Social climber
Wilds of New Mexico
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I've found this thread useful. I just buy and hold. Dunno whether alternatives are better. Doing nothing doesn't seem likely to provide much benefit. In the case of major societal change, I reckon all bets are off anyway and I'll be foraging for scraps of food and shelter everyday instead of looking at a screen and arguing with people on the telephone.
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ms55401
Trad climber
minneapolis, mn
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I still haven't received my tax forms from Vanguard. I seem to recall getting these in mid-January most years... anyone not yet get their tax forms?
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formerclimber
Boulder climber
CA
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Top red line looks a lot like...S&P 500, huh huh...."income of top 10%" line. Mid-80s was the divergence point...right when S&P really took off...this one is up to 2010 only:
It's money that makes more money.
S&P 500 is just a speculative instrument.
It used to grow reasonably, not anymore...game change is in order.
Gap will be rapidly increasing - unless shady accounting/offshoring can mask things up.
Anyone who thinks that some wealth redistribution is not coming is in denial, I think. Call it socialism or whatever, one may be for it or against it, but it's coming.
Oh and that's how "good" the economic growth with s&p bubble really had been, self explanatory:
It's nothing but a speculative bubble growth (but why not ride it, just like weed stocks...making ready for quick exit...the question is, though, what can be the real long term consequences of these games, including STHF.
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