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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Feb 12, 2019 - 06:07pm PT
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That shareholder was TROW and the drop happened between
Sept 30 2018
and
Dec 31 2018.
But your reporting of 'JUST' is close enough for guys like you eh?
Meanwhile, short interest in TSLA has done this...
And the analyists at Canaccord Genuity set price target of $450 this year and Tesla has 3.7 B cash on hand for their 900M convertible bonds due next month.
See how narrow-minded or short vision cherry picking can be made to fit any narrative you want it to?
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Feb 20, 2019 - 02:27pm PT
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Remember, 330 million people in the United States have not ridden in a Tesla, don’t know what one looks like, think it costs over $100,000, and aren’t aware that it is 1/8th the price per mile to operate. It is Day Zero. The demand story will play out from 2020 to 2029.
[Click to View YouTube Video]
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Feb 23, 2019 - 03:50am PT
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Just saw a Tesla Model S downtown Colombo, Sri Lanka.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Feb 23, 2019 - 12:00pm PT
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Here is the part that caught my eye...
It trades at more than 200 times the consensus forecast for GAAP earnings, and revenue is forecast to grow at 25 percent a year, compounded, through 2021, according to figures compiled by Bloomberg. That sort of growth requires spending...
Tesla slashed its capex budget in 2018 from an original target of $3.4 billion to just $2.1 billion
Source: Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-02-20/tesla-s-general-counsel-leaving-the-latest-warning-signal
...
Possibly, all the turnover and tweets just numb the senses. But the dissonance in Tesla’s numbers, on full display in the 10-K filing that dropped on Tuesday, is hard to ignore.
Tesla’s losses came to almost $1 billion in 2018. This would have been closer to $1.4 billion without the sale of $419 million of regulatory credits (see this for an explanation on these). In the second half of the year, Tesla did actually record a net profit of $451 million; although, by my estimates, sales of regulatory credits accounted for about 58 percent of that. 1 To be clear, there’s nothing wrong with this: Tesla makes products that qualify for credits and so is entitled to sell them for a gain...
You would expect economies of scale to kick in to some degree as revenue jumps, so the direction isn’t an issue. Where the dissonance creeps in is the scale of that change when set against the fact that, as a stock, Tesla is still very much a growth story. It trades at more than 200 times the consensus forecast for GAAP earnings, and revenue is forecast to grow at 25 percent a year, compounded, through 2021, according to figures compiled by Bloomberg. That sort of growth requires spending...
Yet, as I wrote here, besides keeping a tight lid on expenses, Tesla slashed its capex budget in 2018 from an original target of $3.4 billion to just $2.1 billion – almost exactly in line with cash flow from operations. Tesla has also announced two large rounds of job cuts within the past 12 months. Remarkably, despite the big jump in revenue and tight spending, several of Tesla’s liquidity ratios actually deteriorated further in 2018. ...
The debate about Tesla is characterized by extremes, with ardent fans hailing it as untouchable and committed critics panning it as untenable. The latter have clearly weighed on Musk at times; so much so that Tesla inserted a bizarre risk factor into the latest 10-K filing, warning that critics could harm perception of the brand and the stock price. Musk’s own Twitter itch handing critics ammunition that very same evening is about as Tesla as it gets.
But once you’ve stripped away all the emotion, there’s a simple question: Is Tesla growing quickly and sustainably enough to justify its sky-high valuation? Put another way, do the clashing signals around spending, turnover in the ranks, weak governance, and the balance sheet deserve any sort of risk premium as opposed to today’s apparent absence of one? As I write this, the stock still trades just north of $300. I guess it all depends on what you choose to hear....
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High Fructose Corn Spirit
Gym climber
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Feb 27, 2019 - 09:17am PT
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Moose,
I've been really struck lately by the attitude, drive, smiles and general ambition to improve things that I've been seeing there and really all over the world too. I tell you, if U.S and China ever have a serious altercation, it might not be so easy taking sides. In recent years - following in the spirit of Huygens - I think I've become more a citizen of the world than ever. Crooked Trump probably had // has something to do with it. Maybe I should move to Poland. lol
I mostly enjoyed those 60 Minutes pieces not from the perspective of commerce and investment but from the perspective of cultural evo and advancing global civilization over generational time.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Feb 27, 2019 - 09:21am PT
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“The name is Tusk, Elon Tusk, and I prefer mine shaken, not stirred.”
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Feb 28, 2019 - 02:04pm PT
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https://electrek.co/2019/02/28/tesla-model-3-standard-battery-interior/
I drive 50,000+ a year so this is what it would cost me in CAD... which I can confirm having done the same with my X.
I just read back through this thread. Got a laugh from Reily's posts because as time goes by he looks more and more misguided and more and more like a simple hater. All those posts about stock price going down (and is now higher) how there is no demand (and has since set records and sold out and crashed websites) just keep looking more and more foolish.
Edit couchmaster: I'm laughing at him since he says the stock price is just about to crash. And it doesn't. But the 10 year plan and mission statement trudge on. Tesla is in China too - getting special treatment by the government there - first to be able to build cars without giving China ownership,etc. I agree with you that the stock price is overvalued for what they actually make as products - which I have stated twice already. But if you can separate the facts from R's claims, you too will laugh.
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couchmaster
climber
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Feb 28, 2019 - 05:52pm PT
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Don't laugh at Reilly over his Tesla stock predictions Tooth. He's 100% correct and the stock price is wildly overinflated. Read Bill Graham, Warren Buffets mentor. Then when it crashes, AND IT WILL, there will be less hubris needed.
For myself, the stock price is different than if Tesla can succeed. I hope and pray they do well, and suspect that they will as they are an amazing company with world class product. Getting into the car business is very capitol intensive, and there is a lot of competitors about to enter the market. The full weight of the Chinese government is behind other electric car companies....that alone should give you pause.
Tooth noted: "I just read back through this thread. Got a laugh from Reily's posts because as time goes by he looks more and more misguided and more and more like a simple hater. All those posts about stock price going down (and is now higher) how there is no demand (and has since set records and sold out and crashed websites) just keep looking more and more foolish. "
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Banks
Trad climber
Santa Monica, CA
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Tooth- I wouldn't crow just yet. Tesla is currently a sh#t show and I say this as someone who invested in Tesla in early 2013. The long time CFO is leaving, the CAO lasted one month, tons of turnover in the accounting Dept in the last year, head of HR lasted barely a year and two General Counsels have quit in the last three months. Not to mention Musk's problems with the SEC. Finally offering a stripped down car at 35k(at a loss) while suffering supply side issues and decreased demand for your higher tiered cars is not a victory. Like couchmaster, I hope Tesla succeeds, but Musk is mismanaging the company into the ground. Why would so many senior people who get multiples of the industry average in pay and bonuses be leaving the company if everything is just fine?
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Give it up guys.
You can't rationalize with true believers.
I'm not in the camp that thinks it is 100% certain that the stock will tank. But if I had to do one or the other, I would still be in the shorting the stock group not the investing.
Next few years will be interesting. Tesla has had this market niche mostly to itself. That's going to change. Competition will be good for the consumer. We will have to see how adversely that affects Tesla.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Tesla has had this market niche mostly to itself. That's going to change.
Yup. They’ve been like a light heavyweight fighting in the lightweight division. Now they are going to have to go up against the real heavyweights. It won’t be pretty.
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Banks
Trad climber
Santa Monica, CA
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Musk has just hired the law firm Hueston Hennigan. John Hueston was the lead prosecutor that took down Enron. Makes you go hmmmmmm.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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On the docket for this week -
My X, along with all Teslas, old and new, will get an update for 5% more power, so faster 0-60 and higher top speed.
Superchargers V3 comes out, so even faster charging.
Model Y reveal
Truck reveal later this year.
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rottingjohnny
Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
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And Tonopah , Nev now has a Tesla charging station . Close to the Clown motel no less !
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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August West: Tesla has had this market niche mostly to itself. That's going to change.
A surety in every industry, unless one has eked-out a monopolist’s competitive position. How these things get played out depends upon the skill sets of the path-breaking, innovative incumbent and its followers. If my academic memory is still working somewhat well, I’d report that about half the time, fast followers overtake the bleeding-edge innovator. The data colleague Banks reports above should make any Tesla aficionado concerned. It’s been a repeating observable pattern for Tesla and Musk for years now.
The Federal Reserve has, I think, about 24 different economic indicators to help economists determine what stage of growth an economy is in. Some are leading indicators, some are co-incidental, and others are following indicators. For example, paper stocks and production are leading indicators because suppliers must package products in order to deliver them. Cardboard production was one indicator we watched closely when I worked for a primary government securities dealer.
Unfortunately there has not been a rigorously designed set of indicators to predict the failure of firms but for something called the Altman’s Z-score, which has been used to predict organizational bankruptcies. However, the ability to find, develop, and keep key talent has generally been looked at as very important in business among consultants, academics, and practitioners. Sadly, the orientation has always taken a back seat to immediate financial performance: the short-term drives out the long term in organizational settings.
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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I should have added the following.
Jim Collins published a book of a 4 year research study on the decline of great companies, called: “How the Mighty Fall.” He reports a 5-stage model of decline. It goes like this:
Stage 1: Hubris born of Success
Stage 2: Undisciplined Pursuit of More
Stage 3: Denial of Risk and Peril
Stage 4: Grasping for Salvation
Stage 5: Capitulation to Irrelevance or Death
Collins notes in his book that a few firms have recovered from Stage 4 to emerge even stronger.
Collins is most noted for his best-selling books, Built to Last and Good To Great.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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I can name two times in the last decade that Tesla was in stage four. One time Elon asked every shareholder to double their stake or they were going under. This is before the S came out. Another time was before that.
The problem with Tesla is that once you drive it you are hooked. Majority of us buy a second one and every other car company is still selling rotary phones while I’m enjoying my iPhone X. That makes it hard to do the usual route to step five because in the past six months they just got another third of a million new loyal customers. And pissed of a bunch in Taiwan who are mad that the prices dropped this week. Apparently they think it devalued their ‘depreciating assets’ - cars.
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