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Bob Harrington
climber
Bishop, California
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Dec 30, 2014 - 05:09pm PT
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Ding, good catch! DWR's data base has a hand-full of wells scattered across the ridge between Huntington Lake and Mammoth Pool Res. They are in very unlikely locations and the well head elevations are supposed to be around 300 feet, which is obviously impossible at those locations. My guess is that the wells are misplaced on the map because they have the wrong coordinates in their data base. I'll try to remember to shoot an e-mail to DWR when I get back in the office.
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Bob Harrington
climber
Bishop, California
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Dec 30, 2014 - 05:49pm PT
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Here's something else to consider as you ponder the drought.
This is a plot of El Nino status versus percent of normal runoff in the Owens River watershed (think Mammoth to Olancha). Each year from 1951-2012 is classified according to El Nino conditions, and for each of those categories, the percent of normal runoff is plotted for each year in the category. The El Nino classification is from the Golden Gate Weather Services web site ( http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm ) and the percent of normal runoff is calculated from LADWP's stream gauges in the eastern Sierra, with 'normal' being the average over 1961-2010. The horizontal bar is the mean runoff for the years in each category, and the vertical bar is the 90% confidence interval for the mean.
There have been a lot of reports in the media over the past year associating the likelihood of an El Nino with the likelihood of a good winter. You can see from this plot that the mean runoff for the strong and moderate El Nino years is above average (118% and 108% respectively), runoff averaged 85% of normal in the weak El Nino years, and all the other categories were near normal. The uncertainty on the mean values is large, because there's a very large spread of runoff within each category.
Although some very big winters occurred during strong and moderate El Nino conditions, very dry years can also occur during those conditions. Likewise, wet and dry years can occur during strong La Nina conditions. So, don't put too much stock in media reports forecasting a good or bad winter based on El Nino/La Nina conditions - there's a lot of uncertainty in 3 to 6 month precipitation forecasts.
This plot is specific to the Owens watershed, but I don't think it's atypical of central and southern California. The Golden Gate Weather web site has nice national (US) maps of precip for each year.
El Nino has been hovering in the neutral zone for the past couple of years.
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Gene
climber
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Dec 30, 2014 - 05:56pm PT
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Bob Harrington,
Thanks so much for posting the info on ground water depletion. Drawing >10 feet in a year is staggering. I suspect that few people realize the magnitude of the problem. Here in the Central Valley there is a mad rush to punch big wells into the ground and grow almonds. It's crazy and unsustainable.
Gene
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neebee
Social climber
calif/texas
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Dec 30, 2014 - 06:58pm PT
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hey there, say, chaz... loved the squirrel umbrella pic... :)
and malmute's large photo...
say, actually this is a great thread... some of it is a lot over my head, but i really appreciate it, thanks, all...
please, keep us up, with your updates, or info, and all the etcs...
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Chaz
Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
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Dec 31, 2014 - 01:05am PT
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Thanks Neebee.
My instruments may be primitive, but they work - if you know how to read them.
It's snowing at 2,000' in east Redlands right now.
Little dinky 1/4" snowflakes, but it's not rain and it's not hail.
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healyje
Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
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Dec 31, 2014 - 01:18am PT
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There's always atmospheric rivers, but then that's not really the way you want this drought to end.
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Ken M
Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
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Dec 31, 2014 - 10:13am PT
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I don't agree with the old indian when he puts down the idea of "understanding".
He is obviously ignorant of the attempt of ALL people, including his own tribe, to UNDERSTAND nature. To do otherwise, is to stumble around in the middle of summer, wearing snowshoes.
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Ken M
Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
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Oh yeah, his tribe, and many other local tribes, have survived far worse dry periods in the local region over the past 1500-2000 or so years than any of you white city slicker science minded folk ever could.
Oh, really? You must not have noticed what has happened to the whites and reds over the last 2,000 years. The reds have shrunk into drunken irrelevance, not even able to keep their own lands, while the whites have taken over the planet.
why do the red folk continue to exist? Because the better of the white folk decided to allow them to.
Particularly if the conservatives had their way, the Indians would be an extinct group, and all their resources taken for profit.
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Ken M
Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
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Thanks for perpetuating the totally negative stigma that the modern material city whitey has towards his culture, Ken M.
Oh, I'm not talking about the individual, I'm talking about the native american as a whole. If you don't think there is an alcohol problem (which there is evidence that is caused by genetic differences in enzymes that break down alcohol, NOT due to any flaw in character alleged by some Republicans).
If you think this is not the case, then you have never been involved in Indian healthcare. Where is Lois when we actually need her??
Just because a description may be negative, does not mean it is not true. But I guess you prefer "politically correct" ways of describing things?
but that's right, you don't want to UNDERSTAND things, you just want to have a cult about it.
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rottingjohnny
Sport climber
mammoth lakes ca
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Dingus...Lay off the fire water...
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clinker
Trad climber
Santa Cruz, California
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You thin skinned righty tighties
What is not to love Bruce?
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John M
climber
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yes.. drought is part of the norm of california.. but climate change folks are speaking about something much larger. A change in the over all pattern of the world. Not just the west coast of
America. In the initial stages, climate change will look just like a part of a normal pattern of historical drought on the West coast.
…
On that note, neither of you two sound much different. One is mocking, one is derisive. Its pretty hard for any of you to claim the high road.
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John M
climber
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of course change has occurred. The difference is in the reason. Speculation about large volcano eruption, meteor strikes, a change in the tilt of the axis of the earth have all been attributed to climate change. But these things haven't happened recently. Which is why scientist have looked at human causes for the increase in greenhouse gasses. Just because it has happened before doesn't mean the reasons are the same. And if we are part of the cause, then the question becomes what can we do about. I have a more spiritual based belief on climate change, but this forum isn't a good place to share that kind of thing.
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John M
climber
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Its unlikely scientific articles have been titled that way, at least those actually written by scientists. But its fairly common knowledge that the media likes to sensationalize things and so I'm certain that there are media produced articles which use such verbiage. But the follow up explanations by the researchers is rarely widely printed.
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d-know
Trad climber
electric lady land
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In full agreement with the above post.
Too many chiefs ruin the pow wow.
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Ken M
Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
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Chief,
I think we can find common ground on the concept that there are too many people for reasonable sustainability. That has implications locally, state-side, nationally, internationally.
I think also that there are solutions to the very real problems we find ourselves in, as well. They don't solve overpopulation, but they mitigate the effects to a degree, while we look for solutions for the longer haul.
by the way, those longer haul solutions may have already kicked in: the level of voluntary fertility has plummeted, at state, national, and international levels....DRAMATICALLY so.
But, did nature cause our population to rise so dramatically in the first place? NO. This was due to understanding of sanitation, the industrial revolution, the green revolution. NOT nature, but human activities.
And how has our fertility been throttled back so much in the last 30 years? Was that NATURE having it's way? NO! It was through the advent of the availability of birth control, and widespread education of women. Those were HUMAN activities.
Nature has few tools to control population. Generally massive die-offs from disease, or from lack of resources to support the population. Have we seen those patterns in most of the world? NO. Nature is not the cause of slowing of population growth.
In 1963, the average number of babies/woman in the world was 5. Today, it is 2.5. That was NOT NATURE.
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Ken M
Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
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Nature didn't do this:
When The Carter Center began leading the international campaign to eradicate Guinea worm disease in 1986, there were an estimated 3.5 million cases in 21 countries in Africa and Asia. Today, that number has been reduced by more than 99.9 percent, with the vast majority of cases remaining in South Sudan.
In 2013, 148 cases of Guinea worm disease were reported worldwide, the vast majority in South Sudan.
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rottingjohnny
Sport climber
mammoth lakes ca
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Written over the urinal in the Paiute Palace..." Too many Chief , not enough indians...".
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MisterE
Gym climber
Bishop, CA
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So bad it's still a $54/month flat fee!
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