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nature
climber
Flagstaff, AZ
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Nov 18, 2004 - 09:33am PT
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MM- you are as blind as Jody. Karl goes on to list tons of reasoning. You debunk it with one statement that contiains no reasoning for the debunking. You go on to make a statement that is illogical (the dollar is strangling our economy makes no sense) and finish it with a bold statement backed up with no substance.
Thanks for info (yet again), Karl.
you may continue...
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dufas
Trad climber
san francisco
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Nov 18, 2004 - 11:11am PT
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wellll, no, a strong dollar does have some impact on american manufacturing competitiveness. so give him credit for that.
But many factors suggest that the war is about far more than religion. It's instead about the survival of American mercantilism/capitalism. Which, when you think about it, is a religion.
Consider the following remarks from Stan Goff, in the spirit of fair notice, he's on record as saying that capitalism is a dreadful economic system and a veteran, but he is a thinker and the points are interesting:
"Global capitalism runs on fossil energy, but the United States does not have to take oil from anyone. Every oil producing nation, including Iraq, has been perfectly willing to sell oil to the United States. It is cheaper to buy oil that it is to steal it with military action. The issue of oil is an issue
not of production but of increasing demand between competitors in a period when we have nearly reached the peak of production output.
Global demand now is at 79.5 million barrels of oil a day. The International Energy Agency and the Department of Energy predict global demand of 115 mbd by 2020, but that is based on demand rising at 1-1.25% per year. In fact, demand is rising at twice that rate. Yet industry experts who are not spinning
figures to reassure stockholders tell us that with massive improvements in infrastructure and perfect political stability, the highest output achievable is around 85 mbd. This year, China passed Japan as the world's second largest importer of crude oil.
If anyone believes that Dick Cheney's energy task force did not review these figures as part of their long-term strategic energy assessment and how it related to the continued possibilities for the accumulation of capital, I have a mountaintop retreat to sell you in Miami.
So the question of oil is not a question of taking it. It's the question of the mathematics of it when global capitalist competition continues to trend toward 100 mbd by the end of the decade, when there's not adequate flow pressure to meet that demand. Someone gets cut. And someone decides who gets cut. Establishing permanent military bases in the very region where over half the remaining easily accessible reserves exist goes a long way toward putting the power that controls those bases in the driver's seat. As a friend of mine once said, 'Oil is not a normal commodity. No other commodity has five US Navy battle groups patrolling the sea lanes to secure it.'"
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Karl Baba
Trad climber
Yosemite, Ca
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Nov 18, 2004 - 11:31am PT
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Very concise quote by Goff. Thanks Dufas.
Peak oil is the elephant in the room for those who know the score. Authorities are still loathe to acknowledge it, because acknowledging it would mean taking action on it, and acknowledging it would also indict the actions we have already taken.
In today's society, Oil equals Money equals Power equals Security. That's it. It's only a religious war because the dominant religions of the countries who will need to be pushed around to secure the oil/money/power have a tradition of resistance. We could throw the coup in Venezula into this whole war scenario except that they're not fighting back with terrorism. (at least yet)
Think about it, add it up.
Mountain Man isn't entirely incorrect. There are advantages to a weaker dollar from time to time. Even without peak oil, we might try to devalue the dollar after some years because our huge debt would be cut in half by cutting the value of the dollar in half.
But this threatens to do far worse than that, read the article. And it would be wise to consider these forces at work when you choose your investments and plan your retirement security. (although, ultimately, things never turn out like they seem like they will, however sound the reasoning behind the predictions)
Peace
Karl
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dufas
Trad climber
san francisco
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Nov 18, 2004 - 12:07pm PT
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Karl, you probably know that Nixon did precisely that when he took the dollar off the gold standard. He immediately reduced the US debt and saddled the rest of the world with it. Ingenious, crafty and a bit slimy, not unlike Nixon.
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Mountain Man
Trad climber
Outer Space
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Nov 18, 2004 - 12:18pm PT
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Nature,
Please, Sir, call me names again!!
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Karl Baba
Trad climber
Yosemite, Ca
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Nov 18, 2004 - 02:01pm PT
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I was wondering if I'd hook you with that article Jeff.
Actually, I don't remember losing an econ argument to Todd, but that doesn't mean that I didn't. Must have memory failure but reference the thread and I'll go concede defeat or fight back.
As for this thread, taking issue with a few points doesn't change the big picture, and is partly inaccurate.
You said Europe doesn't run a trade deficit but the article says the same thing. If you are saying they will run one in the future, all the more reason why they would want euro-denominated oil.
You said the US still has the largest share of world trade. Doesn't that include imports and exports? Running a huge trade deficit can help you be #1 in world trade but when your money loses value, the picture changes. Does your source compare the US with other individual countries or the whole EU?
You say the value of the dollar will rise due to rising interest rates, but the article is clear about how that won't save us if the dollar fails to maintain it's status as world reserve currency, particularly regarding the Oil sales.
For reference, here is the section of the article that you seem to refer to.
"The Euro-zone does not run a huge trade deficit nor is it heavily endebted to the rest of the world like the US and interest rates in the Euro-zone are also significantly higher. The Euro-zone has a larger share of world trade than the US and is the Middle East's main trading partner."
On the other hand, full disclosure.
Don't have any money. Investments have failed miserably. (too greedy and gullible) Don't listen to me, just consider the facts and make your own call.
PEace
Karl
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Mountain Man
Trad climber
Outer Space
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Nov 18, 2004 - 02:10pm PT
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Need a loan, buddy?
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handjamdrum
Trad climber
Madison, WI
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Nov 19, 2004 - 04:27am PT
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Let's take the position that this war is not about oil...
What, then, is it about?
We consume 25% of the world's oil while only representing 9% of the world population.
Europe is becoming an economic power unto itself (25+ members countries), whose energy needs will only increase over time. China has shown a greater than 30% increase in oil consumption year over year for the past 10 years.
This war is about securing our future energy interests, in accordance with the Carter Doctrine, so that we may continue our way of life.
We are facing economic as well as cultural friction in this conflict. Some say it is 'a clash of civilization' but I prefer to view this conflict in terms of reprecussions from our policy decisions.
We should all read 'The Ugly American', it gives an insight into our overall lack of insight.
The cup is already broken...
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Mountain Man
Trad climber
Outer Space
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Nov 19, 2004 - 06:09am PT
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Go, Nick Go
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Karl Baba
Trad climber
Yosemite, Ca
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Nov 19, 2004 - 10:29am PT
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It's an important data point to "know your enemy" even when you have to factor in the fact that all sides "spin" their communications.
Here's the entire transcript of Bin Laden's video
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/79C6AF22-98FB-4A1C-B21F-2BC36E87F61F.htm
On the economic front, Greenspan just warned about a weak dollar citing concerns about trade deficit and federal deficit
http://money.cnn.com/2004/11/19/news/economy/fed_greenspan/index.htm?cnn=yes
this coming at the same time congress raised the federal debt ceiling by 800 billion. Glad I don't have kids.
Peace
karl
Edit: Oh yeah, I forgot to direct a little shame at Fattrad for suggesting that nuking N Vietnam would have been a good idea. That kind of butchery cannot be allowed to become an unchallenged suggestion.
What was their crime again? Resisting French Colonialism and turning to the communist nations for support when the US wouldn't help them? They were even willing to submit to UN elections to determine the manner of reunification with the South, but the US wouldn't allow it cause we knew folks in the North and South both preferred Ho Chi Minh (more a nationalist than communist) to puppet US dictators.
So we went to war on false trumped up charges (Gulf of Tonkin "incident") and wound up killing 2-3 million of em. Nice. So Fattrad wishes we could have nuked em and killed an extra million or two, or ? That would certainly have meant less communists but would the total result have been better? How many gooks would it be acceptable to kill in order to allow those rice farmers to vote for US supported candidates and have a chance to watch TV and drink Coke some day?
When do the ends not justify the means? What if what goes around comes around? It's tricky to judge if our actions bring repercussions but in my experience it's dangerous to discount this. Giving the golden rule a chance would be a lot safer for our souls.
Shame
Karl
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Karl Baba
Trad climber
Yosemite, Ca
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Nov 19, 2004 - 01:16pm PT
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Hi Jeff
It happens that I don't even agree with your hypothetical argument that we could win any conflict using WMDs. Let's say we nuked Falluja. Do you think the rest of Iraq and the Arab world would just fall in line? Would the world sanction us? Would some fanatic use it as an excuse to make a hybrid or DNA modified version of Ebola to let loose in 10 US cities in 10 years when the technology becomes well within reach? What is winning?
As for the Dollar, maybe things will go on as they have and we are able to correct things with a little interest rate hike here, a little arm twist there, but don't be too sure. The perfect storm of peak oil, falling dollar, large trade deficit, and a federal debt that doesn't even have hope of being reduced much less paid, well, that storm may be close at hand. Hope you're right! Well, I know you you're right, but I mean RIGHT!
You can't have a aggressive foreign policy that uses more money on the military than the rest of the world combined, and try to cut spending on the disabled and poor, and gut social security and not get a backlash. Better get practical and less ideological
Peace
Karl
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Mountain Man
Trad climber
Outer Space
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Nov 19, 2004 - 10:11pm PT
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Mister Fattrad,
Greeting awesome dude,
Don't waste your time trying to talk facts to these guys.
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TheHip
Trad climber
Squamish, BC
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Topic Author's Reply - Nov 20, 2004 - 12:22am PT
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MM: You continue to embarass yourself whenever you make a post. I doubt very much the Republicans enjoy seeing you represent their positions.
Karl and fattrad are having a good discussion, you should be paying attention.
Karl, I sure am glad to see there are Americans who take a holistic approach to foreign relations instead of the us/them mentality that 52% of the US voted for
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Mountain Man
Trad climber
Outer Space
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Nov 21, 2004 - 02:57pm PT
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Thanks for the compliment.
I've thought this for some time, but since you insist on personal attacks, I have your new nickname. You are 'The Lame.'
Want to make up? I've seen pictures of Squamish rock that look very tasty. I'd visit. Or do you only share ropes with socialists? I'm serious.
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poop_tube
Trad climber
Irvine, CA
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Nov 21, 2004 - 04:51pm PT
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"Vy can't ve chust climb !" — John Salathé.
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Michael Moron
Social climber
Davison, MI
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Nov 21, 2004 - 05:04pm PT
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I think the elite liberals are doing a very good job.
At the rate they're going, republican dominance is assured for the foreseeable future.
Thank you.
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Mountain Man
Trad climber
Outer Space
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Nov 21, 2004 - 05:19pm PT
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Poop,
Quit posting and start writing another eipisode of Valley Commuter. Please.
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poop_tube
Trad climber
Irvine, CA
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Nov 21, 2004 - 09:18pm PT
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I'm a different poop :) I would like to see another though.
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TheHip
Trad climber
Squamish, BC
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Topic Author's Reply - Nov 21, 2004 - 09:33pm PT
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MM:
I need to trust and respect my climbing partners. While I have no reason not to trust you, I certainly don't respect you. So no, I don't want to climb with you.
You seem to enjoy berating Canada, so do us all a favour and please don't come here. You'd have to leave your gun at home anyway....
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Mountain Man
Trad climber
Outer Space
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Nov 21, 2004 - 10:27pm PT
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Dear The Lame,
Love your new name. You're projecting. I love Canada, I've never met a Canadian I've haven't liked, I don't own any guns, and you constantly spew real hatred.
Can't you talk without that hysterical breathlessness? It's lame.
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