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Clint Cummins
Trad climber
SF Bay area, CA
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Latest forecast is lower: 15.8 feet max height (forecast as of 1:59am Sunday).
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SalNichols
Big Wall climber
Richmond, CA
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In Richmond we get periodic squalls with a lot of rain. Right now its light rain being propelled by 45 kt winds. Holy hell its windy.
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EdBannister
Mountain climber
13,000 feet
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for 7 am Sunday even the most recent revised model showed a predicted discharge of 7,200 CFS
actual flow 3,219...
NOAH, at 7am, is 223% of reality.
so we hope the trend continues
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SalNichols
Big Wall climber
Richmond, CA
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In 97 the SF American hit 300,000 cfs. That's a bunch of H2O.
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John M
climber
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At 2 AM last night it was predicted to be 19.7, but you could see on the radar that the main plume of moisture had moved north. Like I said, its all about where the plume hits California.
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neebee
Social climber
calif/texas
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hey there say, thanks guys...
:)
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EdBannister
Mountain climber
13,000 feet
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Crest forecast is 12.1 now
still think 10 is a better number.
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Ken M
Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
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Looks like the worst is averted, thank God.
I'm sure that Werner and the others are out filling sandbags and protecting infrastructure as best they can. Hope they are safe. Good to know they know what they are doing.
It feels like it was simply the luck of God that the worst of the storm veered north (and how are those folks?). It will not always be so. So we didn't lose $300,000,000 in infrastructure THIS TIME. You'd think it might be worth spending a few mill for planning and infrastructure hardening to protect against the next one which WILL HAPPEN.
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Matt Sarad
climber
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The Kern River is flowing through Bakersfield for the first time in years. It looks like a filthy, foaming, shitty mess full of homeless camp detritus, trash, diapers, and corpse juice from a recent suicide in Hart Park.
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EdBannister
Mountain climber
13,000 feet
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Yes Ken, it has come repeatedly in the past, it is why the Valley is flat on the bottom.
70 thousand years ago there was global warming, then stability, then warming, and stability, then warming, then stability.. we have the record in the rocks, unsorted unconsolidated piles of rocks, 1 terminal, and three recessional moraines dam the valley at different points and have since been silted in by floods. Hence Yosemite, because of repeated floods, is flat on the bottom instead of the classic glacial valley U.
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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That's me, always cutting and pasting from a friend:
The Flood Warning continues for the Merced River at Pohono Bridge.
* At 8:00 AM Sunday the stage was 7.3 feet
* Minor Flooding is forecast
* expected to rise above flood stage of 10.0 ft this afternoon then
forecast to crest near 12.0 ft tonight then forecast to fall below
flood stage of 10.0 ft early tomorrow then forecast to recede to
near 8.5 ft tomorrow morning.
* Flood Stage 10.0 ft
* IMPACT...Near 12.5 feet, Northside Drive and Southside Drive, which
are the main roads in Yosemite Valley, become flooded and are
closed to traffic.
* IMPACT...Near 11.5 feet, Sewage pumping relay station at North Pines
Campground becomes flooded.
* IMPACT...Near 10.5 feet, Water tops the swinging bridge downstream
from Chapel Meadow. Overflow from Woski Pond floods access road.
* IMPACT...Near 10.0 feet, Western portion of North Pines Campground
located at the east end of Yosemite Valley between the confluence
of the Merced River and Tenaya Creek begins to flood. Water rises
to the base of the swinging bridge downstream from Chapel Meadow.
* IMPACT...Near 9.5 feet, Portion of Lower Pines Campground becomes
flooded. Limited site-specific evacuations begin at Housekeeping
Camp located along the south-facing bank of the Merced River.
(Upstream from Sentinel Bridge and downstream from Stoneman Bridge)
* IMPACT...Near 9.0 feet, Chapel Meadow (south side of river) and
Cooks Meadow (north side of river) begins to experience overflow.
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Mark Force
Trad climber
Ashland, Oregon
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In 97 the SF American hit 300,000 cfs.
Holy shit!
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Eric Beck
Sport climber
Bishop, California
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Here in Bishop this is not a warm storm. Currently 35 with a half inch of icy slush everywhere. It may be that it is somewhat warmer higher up with the cold air trapped in the bottom of the valley.
My rain gauge shows 25mm so far, yesterday and today. A light rain continues. This stuff reminds me of my worst memories of winter in Ann Arbor when I was little, cold and slush everywhere.
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EdBannister
Mountain climber
13,000 feet
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2 pm pacific coast time USGS lists 9.23 feet as Merced River level at the Pohono Bridge gaging station.
https://waterdata.usgs.gov/ca/nwis/uv?11266500
More significant, the rate of increase has slowed at least for the last hour, to less than .2 feet per hour.
If, and only if that continues or decreases, the crest could be close to 10 feet.
As a comparison to the American River in 1997, Merced River discharge was 24,600 Cubic Feet per second. The American, as measured at Fair Oaks, drains nearly 1,800 square miles.. The Merced Drainage basin as measured at Pohono Bridge is 321 square miles.
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rincon
climber
Coarsegold
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Mammoth Pool Reservoir today
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EdBannister
Mountain climber
13,000 feet
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Model projection revised down to 11.8 feet
Incredibly, they are still projecting a .5 foot increase next hour, and .3 per hour thereafter.
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EdBannister
Mountain climber
13,000 feet
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3pm USGS published gaging station data:
9.25 feet
In the last hour, stage, or water level went up .02 feet, that is two one hundreths of one foot.
The model generated change was a .5 foot increase.
Noah also still predicts 11.8 feet for the crest, around midnight.....
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Ricky D
Trad climber
Sierra Westside
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Rincon from Coarsegold - how far up the road did you get?
You appear to be on the open ridge just before the Mile High turnout which would put you around 5300 feet.
Has the snow from last week melted off to that point?
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Clint Cummins
Trad climber
SF Bay area, CA
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Ed,
Thanks for sharing your insights.
I agree, it's not a good sign for the model that there is a jump from the current measured level to the closest forecast point.
Looks like it won't go over 12.5 after all.
I wonder what factors changed the forecast in the past 24 hours -
path of the storm, maybe?
As you said, the Merced watershed is fairly small, so if the storm changes track to north or south, it could miss some or all of the watershed.
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WBraun
climber
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Who knows what's gonna happen.
It could get very bad.
It's dumping sh!t cakes hard right now again.
You should see and hear Yosemite falls, it's unreal right now.
It's not looking good that's fer sure ......
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