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brotherbbock
Trad climber
Alta Loma, CA
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Topic Author's Reply - Mar 19, 2015 - 01:32pm PT
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Yeah I hope your wrong Tennessee Jed.
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Jaybro
Social climber
Wolf City, Wyoming
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Mar 19, 2015 - 01:43pm PT
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I haven't heard of Honold standing around sea cliffs where the waves splash up Jed, so that seems unlikely. Or maybe you just meant Alex is a better climber? I'd tend to agree with you on that.
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Rudder
Trad climber
Costa Mesa, CA
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Mar 19, 2015 - 02:57pm PT
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I have posts out here from several years ago saying I hope he isn't doing it because it really is the only way to make good money in climbing. Doing 5.14 on a rope is a yawner these days, but free solo a 5.13? That's cover of Newsweek.
That said I like how Lynn Hill expressed it, "some of the stuff Alex does makes me uncomfortable."
Anyway, thousands of people die everyday... but I hope Alex doesn't. :)
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Ksolem
Trad climber
Monrovia, California
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Mar 19, 2015 - 03:08pm PT
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The guy's living the dream.
Meanwhile we're all hurtling through space at a gazillion miles an hour on a ball of rock. We probably have a meeting scheduled with a giant asteroid, or maybe an intergalactic Attila The Hun. Or maybe our conveyance will just tire of us and unleash huge quakes which leave nothing living bigger than an ant.
And we're worried about Alex Honnold?
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Mar 19, 2015 - 03:24pm PT
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This is not meant to reflect on Alex specifically, but one way to think about how risks add up, or actually they multiply, if you take them repeatedly.
Let's say there's a 1 in 100 chance that something bad happens, if you spin the wheel once. Or 99% chance you'll be fine. If the prize is high that might sound worthwhile, right?
What if you spin twice, with same random odds? Then it's .99*.99 = .98 or a 98% chance you'll be fine. Not quite as good.
Do it 20 times, same 99% chance on each try? .99^20 = 82% good, or 18% chance the bad thing happens by now. You can see how this goes, try it yourself for any probability and any number of spins (the multiplication rule for independent events). It's overly simple compared with real life, but can be used as a rough reality check against wishful thinking about, for example, what's the chance we can get the space station built without losing another shuttle (asked after the Columbia disaster in 1981).
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kaholatingtong
Trad climber
therealmccoy from Nevada City
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Mar 19, 2015 - 03:53pm PT
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How long do we give him to what? Start eating meat again? That sounds like a more legitimate question to me. When you refer to his, or anyone's future lifespan/demise I simply laugh. Anyone who thinks they can predict something like this with any certainty is either a fool or from the future, Honnold's specific life choices notwithstanding.
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apogee
climber
Technically expert, safe belayer, can lead if easy
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Mar 19, 2015 - 04:02pm PT
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"And we're worried about Alex Honnold?"
'Worried'? Notsomuch. But watching him (and others) raises interesting introspection on our own human experience, as we hurtle in space towards an asteroid with an intergalactic Attila the Hun waiting for us.
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James
climber
My twin brother's laundry room
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Mar 19, 2015 - 04:33pm PT
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I get his van.
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Lynne Leichtfuss
Trad climber
Will know soon
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Mar 19, 2015 - 05:49pm PT
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I commented earlier on this thread....but have just one more take. Every time I see this topic it makes me uncomfortable.
The topic may present an honest question, but I don't think it's an appropriate one.
People all live their own lives and make their own decisions. Unless you have reason not to, I'd not second guess but support them to the max.
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Kalimon
Social climber
Ridgway, CO
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Mar 19, 2015 - 06:08pm PT
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You all should get out and solo something yourself rather than spending your own limited and precious days wanking on about someone you don't even know.
Punters galore.
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Gnome Ofthe Diabase
climber
Out Of Bed
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Mar 19, 2015 - 07:00pm PT
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I agree it is enough
this is a truly distasteful thread that has picked a scab, It should go away!
What Chiloe said about the odds should be sobering to all veterans of xxyrs. of climbing.
Not that anyone should stop climbing.
The losses year in and year out point to a solid truth we climbers get hurt, lost and die while climbing.
I hope that we all live long and prosper,
Fear is a controlled emotion that Alex has under control.
His learning / climbing curve is more reasonable than many.
A trajectory that, if you graph it, stays at a constant rise,steep but not as steep as many.
His rise is not something that I dwell on. I take note but I have not read the NY times article.
If you have solo climbing in your quiver, the mountains open up to you, add a ton of talent,
And of course GOOD LUCK, and sensible approach to the lines he chooses, Alex can continue soloing, pushing the envelope and having fun until he can not
He is so much more than his solo feats of daring, the Fitzroy enchainments 7 walls in 7 days
. . . Edit. . .
Now I see that this has all been covered by a much more in the game climber,
So I'm outa here --good luck to all who stretch and achieve great Times and have fun CLIMBING!
It has been said that the act of soloing occurs in a trance like mind set. Not a trance but a deep focus -Fifteen inches in any direction is all that is in focus. As the climbing gets harder that sphere of focus can narrow.
Solo climbing kills, and that is a sad fact of death and life. Let's all think positive thoughts to counter the bad juju of this death pool thread.
Actually yes I know what WBraun says below is true, the fast and solid can and have been jogging up and down the mountains around the world for decades with only a hand full of actual fails. There are more deaths decending then going up,also.
I still want to spoil this thread to make it go away.
Carry on...
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WBraun
climber
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Mar 19, 2015 - 07:46pm PT
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Solo climbing kills
For how many people have been climbing in Yosemite all these years it's very very rare for a free soloist fatality.
It's the roped climbers, tourist scramblers and others who have the all the accidents and fatalities ....
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crankster
Trad climber
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Mar 19, 2015 - 07:55pm PT
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Mar 19, 2015 - 06:00pm PT
Circle jerk wankfest thread.
Father Sanctimony has spoken, everybody disperse.
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Gnome Ofthe Diabase
climber
Out Of Bed
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Mar 19, 2015 - 08:18pm PT
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throw down when the best will buy the farm ?
or stop having fun ?
or what ever the premiss
Of this "wankfest" was then changed to and it continues to morph
Like a van named dorf is gonna really move a half a ton . . .
that's funny stuff
So is a dead pitcher compared to me
Dick Elsworth who was he well a Cubs pitcher who never soloed nutcracker or any thing on the Glacier point Apron, but he threw in the big leagues so that counts cause the mound is raised earth.
The end
No not yet
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Peter Haan
Trad climber
Santa Cruz, CA
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Mar 19, 2015 - 10:05pm PT
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re Chiloe's Gambler's Fallacy upthread here.
from Wikipedia:
The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, it will happen less frequently in the future, or that, if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, it will happen more frequently in the future (presumably as a means of balancing nature). In situations where what is being observed is truly random (i.e., independent trials of a random process), this belief, though appealing to the human mind, is false. This fallacy can arise in many practical situations although it is most strongly associated with gambling where such mistakes are common among players.
In other words, the belief that there "is something pushing" upcoming results by dint of earlier ones.
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Gnome Ofthe Diabase
climber
Out Of Bed
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Mar 20, 2015 - 02:44am PT
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I think that that is the first time that I have seen the word DINT used, correctly
In a sentance
Great thread, due to one four letter word. All the rest is a waste.
If that was all that this thread had to offer I would not bother but many have said things that are hart felt.
Wishing ill to Alex by questioning his rise to promenance oh Auto correct !rize to the top
Rise to the top of the heap of great climbers of this age or and any age for that matter
Is a Jinx & a selfish way for us to showboat too.
Yikes this thread reads like a coming of age thread in a ( ripped from our first page)
Dystopian post apocalyptic world let's all go to YOSEMITE and draw staws at noon to see who gats to scream me you and he the first, and who screams it last ?
This is the task I hope it puts me to sleep and this thread to bed
Nice one, Peter Hand it over I like the cut of your words !
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Mar 20, 2015 - 06:36am PT
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re Chiloe's Gambler's Fallacy upthread here
Yes, to be clear I was not suggesting that the probabilities change with repetition, in my example they stay always the same (say, 99% for success on each spin). But if you ask at the outset, what's the chance of 50 successes if I spin this wheel 50 times, that's more like .99^50 = .61, or just 61%. If you're lucky enough to get through the first 49, chances of success on the 50th are still same as they ever were, 99%.
Long-run probability calculations are how casinos and insurance companies know they'll make money.
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Poloman
Trad climber
Anna, Il
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Mar 20, 2015 - 07:07am PT
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The longevity of a free soloer has something to do with ego. Are they overconfident? Are they driven to do the next tougher thing?
Let's face it. This is all about error not chance.
When they make a bad enough mistake, they will die.
If they always climb on perfect rock and never make a misjudgement, they will live.
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clinker
Trad climber
Santa Cruz, California
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Mar 20, 2015 - 07:16am PT
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I eat peanut butter from the jar with my index finger
Living dangerously.
A large black cloud hung over Nanda Devi," he insisted. ... everyone — for health reasons — to use a clean utensil or cracker to scoop out the peanut butter.
Remember Nanda Devi. Don't be a savage.
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