Huge 8.9 quake plus tsunami - Japan

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John Moosie

climber
Beautiful California
Mar 16, 2011 - 06:21pm PT
, but is important is WHAT has happened, and is continuing to happen.

I disagree with you. At one point this did have the potential to become a major disaster and burying our heads in the sand doesn't do any good. Running around like ones head is cut off doesn't help either, but ignoring the potential is one of the things that concerns people.

So far those folks who support the nuclear industry have said nuclear energy is safe because they plan for so many things, yet they haven't answered how they did not plan for a Tsunami in a country that is known for Tsunamis, so hopefully you could see how people just might be concerned.

Many of us have also been concerned about the use of coal and oil, but just because those are dangerous doesn't mean we should ignore the dangers of nuclear energy.

Another thing.. Both government and industry have histories of hiding the truth. Sometimes for good reason, but sometimes because of things like pride. Japan has a history of hiding things because of pride. So I think its appropriate for people to question seriously the information they recieve, including what the media protrays as the media also has a bad reputation for over stating things. So its this nightmare of trying to figure out what is happening with one group trying to hide or downplay things and another trying to dramatize them.

As you point out, No one has died yet because of this situation at the nuclear plant. The key word is yet, because as you have pointed out, we just don't know yet what will happen. We don't even know how bad a complete meltdown would be. Maybe it wouldn't be too bad. But maybe is a hard word to use when talking about nuclear energy.
bluering

Trad climber
Santa Clara, CA
Mar 16, 2011 - 06:42pm PT
And yes...that would be the military in this case....Anybody who can take over, think and has a set.....should have happened on Saturday already...

Well, at least Obama has his Basketball picks in.
Mike Bolte

Trad climber
Planet Earth
Mar 16, 2011 - 06:49pm PT
This is the output of the SCRAMMed reactors with time. The good news is that the initial decay is way fast, the bad news is that the asymptotic tail stretches out for a long time.




John Moosie

climber
Beautiful California
Mar 16, 2011 - 06:51pm PT
I think they are going to be able to get them into control and this will all mostly go away, apart from the things we hopefully learn. Just my gut feeling.
Mike Bolte

Trad climber
Planet Earth
Mar 16, 2011 - 06:53pm PT
I think so too John, I'm really hoping that that is the case.
graniteclimber

Trad climber
The Illuminati -- S.P.E.C.T.R.E. Division
Mar 16, 2011 - 06:54pm PT
Bluering, this has been a great thread so far with just about everyone -- liberals, conservatives, moderates -- having a good civil discussion of the issues, without partisan sniping. Let's keep it that way and put our political posts in other threads.
Seamstress

Trad climber
Yacolt, WA
Mar 16, 2011 - 07:18pm PT
I am no expert. The prospect of power finally getting to the plant and the ability to possibly use the primary cooling system for some or all of the facilities will be a major milestone in working the problem.

GOod Luck.

I still can't find my "adopted" daughter, a wonderful foreign exchange student, Saori. I hope you are safe, warm, and well fed.
bluering

Trad climber
Santa Clara, CA
Mar 16, 2011 - 07:21pm PT
The prospect of power finally getting to the plant and the ability to possibly use the primary cooling system for some or all of the facilities will be a major milestone in working the problem.

Yeah, and I hear that is getting close to happening. Good luck indeed.
happiegrrrl

Trad climber
New York, NY
Mar 16, 2011 - 07:28pm PT
Seamstress - I am so sorry that you are waiting to hear from your Saori. I hope that she is able to get word to you soon. It must be very difficult for all those trying to get word out.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Mar 16, 2011 - 07:33pm PT
so Riley is all upset because of what might happen and the fact that it doesn't appear that anyone educated has the answers that he wants right now...

...it is better to look at what hasn't happened, which is a result of those same educated people having designed the reactors the way they were, and their honest assessment that they cannot not predict, with absolute certainty, what is going to happen.

At Chernobyl roughly 1.5 hours elapsed between the beginning of the tests and the explosions that initiated the tragic events we know about. During that time a large number of decisions were made by people, many of the decisions were wrong. There were 50 deaths directly attributable to the accident.

In Japan the "worst case" scenario is playing out in that the reactors will be lost, but there most likely will NOT be the same dispersal of radioactive materials. The major difficulty in working through this part of the core melt down is managing the cooling, which requires water to be circulated in an "open" loop, meaning that as the impurities in the water are activated they will eventually be released outside of the containment into the atmosphere. This is not at all the same thing as the core exploding and breaching the inner containment.

At Chernobyl the graphite moderator which surrounded the fuel rods ignited and burned and contributed to dispersing the radioactive contents of the fuel. The Japanese reactors are different and do not have this sort of design.

The possibility that the fuel rods melt and that the fissile material will collect into a critical mass capable of sustaining a chain reaction has also been mitigated in this design, and with additional precautions (such as adding neutron "poisons" to the cooling) will not, in all likelihood, result in the fictional "China syndrome" scenario...

It is really very easy to sit here thousands of miles away and call for "the big boys" to deal with this, but the "big boys" who ever you think they are, cannot do anything different than what is happening now, which is managing the core meltdown in such a way as to preserve the inner containment and avoid catastrophic failure of the reactors causing human and environmental calamity.

The die was cast with the earthquake/tsunami and now we are seeing how it will all play out...
golsen

Social climber
kennewick, wa
Mar 16, 2011 - 07:36pm PT
Riley,


And no one is upset......just start making good decisions....or get somebody who can....
And yes...that would be the military in this case....Anybody who can take over, think and has a set.....should have happened on Saturday already...

Man....this is what I live everyday...people are paralysed in an emergency..people who talk and try to show me what they know...then when the real deal hits they fall apart and they cant think and slink off to corner....where is the big talker now? When the hard core sh#t really has to get done...very few people can do it....
We all know this as trad climbers also.....it is one of the reason we are climbers....that is for the people who actually are climbers on here...

Just as you ( I assume) have specific training in dealing with medical emergencies, the guys at the power plant also have that training. If I were to base my opinion of the medical field solely on news bites I would probably assume you guys have your head up your a*#. Give these guys the same benefit of the doubt.

My only point about someone basing a negative opinion on Nuclear Energy is that they should learn about the impacts of energy and understand the impacts that are blindly accepted prior to making a decision and crying foul.

corniss chopper

climber
breaking the speed of gravity
Mar 16, 2011 - 08:00pm PT
Ed - well said! The past is prologue. We deserve to burn in atomic fire
for all of our mistakes.

But God, we pray that you spare our children!

Please!!!


Brandon Lampley

Mountain climber
Boulder, CO
Mar 16, 2011 - 08:15pm PT
Just looking at the satellite photos, I find it hard to believe that if power can be restored, there are functioning cooling systems onsite to power up. Just looks like carnage.

I could be wrong. You'd think if the design parameteres anticipated the hydrogen explosions, the cooling systems would be designed to withstand those blasts.
cleo

Social climber
Berkeley, CA
Mar 16, 2011 - 08:18pm PT
USGS has updated the population exposed to intense shaking estimates, as well as losses.



Also, at least one (very short) acceleration ~3g was recorded(and a few of >1g), which is *huge* (most stations with hard shaking reported 0.3-0.4g)

neebee

Social climber
calif/texas
Mar 16, 2011 - 08:27pm PT
hey there say, seamstress... very sad to hear of your friend... did anyone ask you yet, what area she is from, or do you not remember? (was that where the extra concern came from, from not knowing?)...

hope you will find a way to find out...
god bless...
golsen

Social climber
kennewick, wa
Mar 16, 2011 - 08:33pm PT
Riley,

I already posted this link: Some of the BOLDED items are done by me without changing the text.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster

International spread of radioactive substances
Four hundred times more radioactive material was released than had been by the atomic bombing of Hiroshima. However, compared to the total amount released by nuclear weapons testing during the 1950s and 1960s, the Chernobyl disaster released 1/100 to 1/1000 the radioactivity.[51] The fallout was detected over all of Europe except for the Iberian Peninsula.[52][53][54]

The initial evidence that a major release of radioactive material was affecting other countries came not from Soviet sources, but from Sweden, where on the morning of 28 April[55] workers at the Forsmark Nuclear Power Plant (approximately 1,100 km (680 mi) from the Chernobyl site) were found to have radioactive particles on their clothes.[56] It was Sweden's search for the source of radioactivity, after they had determined there was no leak at the Swedish plant, that at noon on April 28 led to the first hint of a serious nuclear problem in the western Soviet Union. Hence the evacuation of Pripyat on April 27, 36 hours after the initial explosions, was silently completed before the disaster became known outside the Soviet Union. The rise in radiation levels had at that time already been measured in Finland, but a civil service strike delayed the response and publication.[57]

Contamination from the Chernobyl accident was scattered irregularly depending on weather conditions. Reports from Soviet and Western scientists indicate that Belarus received about 60% of the contamination that fell on the former Soviet Union. However, the 2006 TORCH report stated that half of the volatile particles had landed outside Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia. A large area in Russia south of Bryansk was also contaminated, as were parts of northwestern Ukraine. Studies in surrounding countries indicate that over one million people could have been affected by radiation.[58]

Recently published data from a long-term monitoring program (The Korma Report)[59] show a decrease in internal radiation exposure of the inhabitants of a region in Belarus close to Gomel. Resettlement may even be possible in prohibited areas provided that people comply with appropriate dietary rules.

In Western Europe, precautionary measures taken in response to the radiation included seemingly arbitrary regulations banning the importation of certain foods but not others. In France some officials stated that the Chernobyl accident had no adverse effects.[citation needed] Official figures in southern Bavaria in Germany indicated that some wild plant species contained substantial levels of caesium, which were believed to have been passed onto them by wild boars, a significant number of which had already contained radioactive particles above the allowed level, consuming them.[60]

[edit] Radioactive release
The external gamma dose for a person in the open near the Chernobyl site.
Contributions of the various isotopes to the (atmospheric) dose in the contaminated area soon after the accident.Like many other releases of radioactivity into the environment, the Chernobyl release was controlled by the physical and chemical properties of the radioactive elements in the core. While the general population often perceives plutonium as a particularly dangerous nuclear fuel, its effects are almost eclipsed by those of its fission products. Particularly dangerous are highly radioactive compounds that accumulate in the food chain, such as some isotopes of iodine and strontium.

Two reports on the release of radioisotopes from the site were made available, one by the OSTI and a more detailed report by the OECD, both in 1998.[61][62] At different times after the accident, different isotopes were responsible for the majority of the external dose. The dose that was calculated is that received from external gamma irradiation for a person standing in the open. The dose to a person in a shelter or the internal dose is harder to estimate.

The release of radioisotopes from the nuclear fuel was largely controlled by their boiling points, and the majority of the radioactivity present in the core was retained in the reactor.

All of the noble gases, including krypton and xenon, contained within the reactor were released immediately into the atmosphere by the first steam explosion.
About 1760 PBq of I-131, 55% of the radioactive iodine in the reactor, was released, as a mixture of vapor, solid particles, and organic iodine compounds.
Caesium and tellurium were released in aerosol form.
An early estimate for fuel material released to the environment was 3 ± 1.5%; this was later revised to 3.5 ± 0.5%. This corresponds to the atmospheric emission of 6 t of fragmented fuel.[62]
Two sizes of particles were released: small particles of 0.3 to 1.5 micrometers (aerodynamic diameter) and large particles of 10 micrometers. The large particles contained about 80% to 90% of the released nonvolatile radioisotopes zirconium-95, niobium-95, lanthanum-140, cerium-144 and the transuranic elements, including neptunium, plutonium and the minor actinides, embedded in a uranium oxide matrix.



Riley, you earlier posted that you thought 1,000's had died due to Chernobyl. Unfortunately, some of teh hardest hit were Children who drank Cow's Milk from cows that had grazed on contaminated grass. Thyroid cancer was the most common impact to the children's health.

In the aftermath of the accident, 237 people suffered from acute radiation sickness, of whom 31 died within the first three months.[63][64] Most of these were fire and rescue workers trying to bring the accident under control, who were not fully aware of how dangerous exposure to the radiation in the smoke was. Whereas, the World Health Organization's report 2006 Report of the Chernobyl Forum Expert Group from the 237 emergency workers who were diagnosed with ARS, ARS was identified as the cause of death for 28 of these people within the first few months after the disaster. There were no further deaths identified, in the general population affected by the disaster, as being caused by ARS. Of the 72,000 Russian Emergency Workers being studied, 216 non-cancer deaths are attributed to the disaster, between 1991 and 1998. The latency period for solid cancers caused by excess radiation exposure is 10 or more years; thus at the time of the WHO report being undertaken, the rates of solid cancer deaths were no greater than the general population. Some 135,000 people were evacuated from the area, including 50,000 from Pripyat.


Aya K

Trad climber
New York
Mar 16, 2011 - 08:41pm PT
Have finally gotten direct word from a cousin who lives in Tokyo; he said that it's very strange because all the birds have left.
Aya K

Trad climber
New York
Mar 16, 2011 - 08:50pm PT
Dunno, he said he can't find any birds this morning and it's very quiet and he just hopes everything gets back to normal soon.
golsen

Social climber
kennewick, wa
Mar 16, 2011 - 08:52pm PT
I have no clue how many total deaths have occurred due to Chernobyl Riley (either do the experts). I assumed you were upset by indicating that you were an expert in your field while these guys at the plant were clueless. I have a sneaking suspicion that if 2,000 extremely sick patients showed up at your hospital in an hour that you would sh#t bricks and we could all chime in on the internet how clueless the medical world was. However, I believe that response would show a high degree of ignorance and lack of understanding.

Making arrogant and stupid insinuations against people risking their health to protect other people does not reflect too positively on your judgement under pressure so I either have to assume that you were upset or you are being an ass.
cleo

Social climber
Berkeley, CA
Mar 16, 2011 - 08:56pm PT
There very well may have been thousands of deaths (4000-9000) from Chernobyl. An article and a letter from Nature

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v437/n7062/full/4371089a.html
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