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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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No argument, as I said earlier, on being wary right now: the atmosphere is unstable with a lot of potential convective activity. Keep yer topgallant masts struck, and double gammon yer bowsprit! And Trump is only the obvious squall on the horizon - rogue waves can strike from any direction!
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blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
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Blahblah, you might right, since that's what we've learned from the past. But, I think, this coming crises is different. I wouldn't be surprised if we see 30% correction over the next two years, and then the bear market for another 20+ years. The Feds will try to pump money into the market, but that will eventually lead to an huge inflation. Times are different now. I'm still 30% invested in stocks, just in case I'm wrong. (But I'm never wrong! hehe)
"This time is different" can be one of the more pernicious thoughts investors have (and of course it's not just investing: consider relationships, etc.). That is not to say you're wrong on your predictions, although your 20-year bear market is outside consensus views. My view is that something like a 20-year bear market would lead to such a radical restructuring of society that I'm not sure your ownership of cash or bonds or gold would really help. All of our ownership of these assets are just pieces of paper (in the old days, now just bits in the cloud)--when the sh#t really hits the fan, it's probably back to the law of the jungle.
I'm not at all saying you're wrong and I'm right. The current environment is really testing my buy and hold, stick mostly with equities viewpoint. I am thinking of shifting somewhat away from equities, although for me that would probably be something like shifting from 90+% to 70-80% or so. If I do that, I'll cost average in selling over a period of time. But the long term advantage of equities seems so strong that I'll probably stick with that, knowing I may well get burned.
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Fritz
Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
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Topic Author's Reply - Dec 6, 2018 - 08:18pm PT
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blahblah: I think you have it right with a buy & hold strategy.
This market may well be going to schist, but the longest down market on record was the Great Depression of 1929, which lasted until the ramp up to WWII spending boom in 1939.
I've been reading about a 20 year economic downturn for about 30 years now. There's always room for Doom & Gloom predictors in the market.
If it really goes to sh#t, we have our 5 acre ranchette, with irrigation water, here & 110 miles away is Heidi's family farm, which she owns half of, including the original farmhouse her old man constructed in 1951. (He homesteaded 120 acres then, thanks to a new taxpayer funded dam & a lottery for farmland he won, that you had to prove you were a WWII veteran, had a farming background, & had $2,000.00 in cash.)
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SteveW
Trad climber
The state of confusion
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Down only 558 today. . . what a relief. . .
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EdwardT
Trad climber
Retired
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Dec 10, 2018 - 02:03pm PT
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DOJI
DRAGONFLY DOJI
The bottom is in!
Candlestick patterns are never wrong!!!
Derp
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Dec 17, 2018 - 11:39am PT
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Have we reached the bottom yet?
Don’t be a bottom feeder!
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StahlBro
Trad climber
San Diego, CA
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Dec 17, 2018 - 01:10pm PT
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tRump’s tax break was a cruel joke. Huge corporate stock buy-backs, weak capital investment, low paying job growth...yay. Interest Rate hike coming. Every scam eventually falls apart.
This is what you get with a serial bankrupter as POTUS. And the GOP bought it. Again.
Let’s hope the next DEM POTUS pulls us out of the death spiral.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Dec 17, 2018 - 04:31pm PT
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The GOP bought it? HHhhmmm, don't think so. The GOP was well compensated by the 1% and the 0.1% for that tax cut.
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Kalimon
Social climber
Ridgway, CO
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Dec 17, 2018 - 07:46pm PT
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Let’s hope the next DEM POTUS pulls us out of the death spiral.
"A distant ship smoke on the horizon . . ."
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Sierra Ledge Rat
Mountain climber
Old and Broken Down in Appalachia
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Dec 18, 2018 - 03:35am PT
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Looking at the Dow - turning out to be the worst December since the Great Depression.
Yea!
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Fritz
Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
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Topic Author's Reply - Dec 18, 2018 - 07:40am PT
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The "somewhat conservative" newspaper Business Insider shares CEO concerns.
American CEOs are worried about 4 things. No. 1 is Trump.
A survey of 134 American CEOs was conducted during last week's Yale CEO Summit in New York.
The event was off the record, but The New York Times got access to the results of the survey.
At the top of the CEOs' list of worries? President Donald Trump.
Almost 90% of CEOs surveyed said the president's negotiating style had cost the US the trust of its allies, while three in four CEOs said they often had to apologize to their foreign business partners for the president's behavior.
Three-quarters of CEOs also said they felt the president wasn't leading effectively on national security.
2. The arrest of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou — and Trump's potential intervention.
3. A recession caused by political instability.
Half of respondents expressed fear the US could wind up in a recession by the end of the year.
Why?
Sixty-seven per cent blamed political instability in the nation and trade negotiations.
4. Need for more government regulation of tech companies.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/american-ceos-are-worried-about-4-things-no-1-is-trump/ar-BBR6lOF?li=BBnb7Kz&pfr=1
OH MY! Post 666. My ST enemies will enjoy that.
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10b4me
Social climber
Lida Junction
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Dec 18, 2018 - 07:58am PT
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Half of respondents expressed fear the US could wind up in a recession by the end of the year.
that's what I've been reading, and hearing.
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Toker Villain
Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
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Dec 18, 2018 - 12:16pm PT
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Lets see what the Fed does tomorrow.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Dec 18, 2018 - 01:16pm PT
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The rate hike is already priced in. The markets are only looking at the wording with regards to future hikes.
Moosie, the tax cuts hurt me, too, at least on my snowflake side. I particularly abhor the ballooning debt. When my coup succeeds my first move as benign dictator will be to half the Pentagon’s budget. Then I will ban all imports.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Dec 18, 2018 - 01:42pm PT
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Fear not, good sir, clown wear will still be allowed in.
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briham89
Big Wall climber
santa cruz, ca
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Dec 18, 2018 - 02:34pm PT
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What woulda happened if we stoped international trade?
That's an easy answer......
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Toker Villain
Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
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Dec 19, 2018 - 12:04pm PT
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.25% raise
I listened to Powell explain it, but don't like it. Bad timing.
Just wait until next year when Trump gets impeached.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Dec 19, 2018 - 12:21pm PT
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.25% ain’t gonna be the difference between a recession and continued irrational exhuberance.
P/E ratios are back down from the stratosphere - buy, baby, buy!
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Dec 19, 2018 - 04:34pm PT
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I was being facetious, sir, at least in part. I dare say you are looking forward to enough good years that you should still be in equities up to 50%. Sure and we’re looking at less than robust equities returns these coming 18-24 months but sometime during this next blow we will claw our way off this lee shore and can safely spread more canvas and crack on. For now though I think it best to keep the storm sails flying and keep our powder dry.
I hope your mention of gold was also facetious - I hold it in only somewhat less contempt than Bitchkoins. As for bonds I am actually considering buying some 5 yrs if they go back up to the 3% they hit in October. I wish I had the cojones for some Mexican and Brazilian 5 years. 8.6% for the Mexicans!
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