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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Jun 6, 2013 - 02:46am PT
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And some news of the extremes of this last, unusually long lasting,winter.
Perhaps it was long in some places on Earth, but here in NA, it was extremely short. Or haven't you heard about the drought?
I was talking to a fire chief from Wawona the other day. We're 2 months ahead of schedule on the fire season. They had to call off the burn along 41 due to the conditions being too dry.
Second drought year in a row here in Santa Cruz, the water table is suffering and salt water intrusion is gaining.
Unusually long lasting winter my butt.
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McHale's Navy
Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
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But it snowed in Rick's backyard.
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BLUEBLOCR
Social climber
joshua tree
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You know what I always tell the OLD people who are talking about weather?
"Go outside and look!"
BLA,BLA,BLA BRUCE. Ive lost respect for you too.
Go get'em Duck!
Quack Quack!
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Jun 6, 2013 - 02:53am PT
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I guess my response would be that all the models have been incorrect.
I suppose you honestly believe this to be the truth.
Bluey, you are an electronics trouble-shooter. But try talking to a civil engineer in the central valley who job it is to plan for water runoff. You'll find they are now planning on systems to support larger runoff volumes due to the modeling that predicts the snow pack in the sierra to decline by 50% over the next decade or so.
Not less precip, mind you. Less snow pack. Ya dig?
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BLUEBLOCR
Social climber
joshua tree
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Good job Kman, you told him!
There used to be ice all over the planet. Where is is now? You da?
Global warming has been happening for awhile!
Keep on fart'in!!
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slayton
Trad climber
Here and There
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Bluering I think you miss my point. You have to feed a model data, but do you really know what that data is in the future? Based solely on past climates?
Really? It's speculation at best.
No. You miss the point of modeling. The point of science (and modeling) is to try to understand what is happening now and why, and how what is happening now determines what happens in the future. Is it exact? Is it 100% correct? No. But that's how science works. It builds off of new discoveries and it builds off of failed hypothesis when scientists have to go back and ask "why?".
Science, in it's most rudimentary form, is speculation (hypothesis) that is then tested. If that speculation doesn't then stand up to the tests it's dropped, tweaked, or changed and then tested again. If it doesn't work yet again it will either go through more changes or eventually dropped. If it does work it will probably bring more questions, more speculations/hypothesis and more tests and further understanding.
Your use of the word "speculation" here speaks more to your lack of understanding of the scientific method then it does your understanding of climate science.
Science is speculation, and once tested and verified is then able to be verified by others. If it's not, it doesn't meet the criteria.
Not that that matters for any that already have their minds made up.
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dirtbag
climber
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Chief Running Mouth: completely and openly ignorant and proud of it...and too stooopid to realize ignorant people should probably just STFU.
He sure likes posting pics, so here's one for him:
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Bruce the picture you painted of our involvement in testimony before congress is hilarious. Oh, if only we could, what a three ring circus that would be.
So Ed, they assign no value for the ever present aerosols of continuing volcanic eruptions, which range from very low activity to species killing events-that is a major deficiency. Another is that although they have input all known values of forcing, positive and negative feedbacks, they have input solar forcing variability largely upon that we have grown accustomed to over the last century-that is a problem since we have exited a grand maximum and may well be entering a grand minumum of larger, longer, chaotic (as far as they can determine at this point) solar variability. Another problem is the inattention that has paid to the effects of individual spectra and instead simplistically giving only a value known as total solar irradiance. Much more work must be done on atmospheric chemistry. Another problem is variation of incoming CR flux and variability of earths final line of defense-variability of geo magnetic strength. I could go on and on and on about all the unknown or misquantified values entered into the models. Really though, the departure from real world observation of the models predictives should be enough for anyone half informed to realize the basic premise of CAGW is invalid and all effort should be towards identifying, understanding and valuing the agents of change that have been missed.
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Chaz
Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
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Assuming Science can come up with a solution, how do they get people to go along with it, especially if the proposed solution costs money?
The climate challenge may indeed be scientifically solveable. The political hurdle will be your big crux, especially if you need people worldwide onboard to make it work.
I'd be interested to hear how people are to be persuaded into doing things they otherwise wouldn't do.
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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Chaz brings up an excellent point!
IF money will be needed obviously some sort of future, gasp, TAX
likely a small increase in federal withholding from paychecks
probably not in our lifetime as government tends to act only when crisis is accute
so me and the Chief's social security checks are safe for now
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Splater
climber
Grey Matter
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It's not up to Ed to voluntarily research every kook question,
especially when people like Rick troll him and then ignore the answer.
"This is a good start for the research direction after final abandonment of climate modeling based on the false premise of overwhelming anthropogenic forcing. This day will be relatively near in the future, surely in 4 years or less."
What is certain is that in 4 years the denialists will still be looking behind every faux door for excuses, fake science, and charismatic liars.
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bobinc
Trad climber
Portland, Or
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Actually, there was no man-added fluoride in the water supply in PDX before the vote.
But the no vote was another public health failure. Disgraceful.
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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I suspect Ed chooses not to address the above, for fear it might criminate him in the eyes of Supertopians.
yes, if Ed does not "address" every subject that you pull out of your ass then Ed "fears" someone like YOU will criminate.....incriminate,,,whatever
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bobinc
Trad climber
Portland, Or
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People who don't support fluoride stopped paying attention way before they took high school chemistry.
There's a lot of similarity between climate change deniers and fluoride alarmists. A lot.
Worth nothing that the John Birch society was one of the first to join the Dr Strangelove camp, too...
"ever seen a commie drink a glass of water?..."
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abrams
Sport climber
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AGW believers are much like those old flat Earthers making wild claims
if we go to far we will fall off the edge and be eaten by the
lurking CO2 monster.
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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Chief,
Michael Dunlop and John McGuiness are in fine form on the Island
what day is the Senior TT, Chief?
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Elcapinyoazz
Social climber
Joshua Tree
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Geo-engineering is the spraying of chemicals into the air, aka chemtrails.
Um, no, that is one potential strategy within the geo-eng field. Geo-engineering is an exceptionally broad field. Aerial dispersion/application of whatever could be a component...or not. Probably the most well known example of geo-eng is "seeding" the ocean with iron to induce phytoplankton blooms that thereby sequester carbon (something like that, I'm an env engineer by day, but don't deal directly with geo-eng field).
And furthermore...wait a minute...look behind you. Oh SH#T! Black helicopters! RUNNNNN!!!!!
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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here you go, NWO
right up your alley, here is a list of the top conspiracy theories
http://listverse.com/2007/08/21/top-10-conspiracy-theories/
pick a couple and post them on every thread
get people as OUTRAGED as you are!
The Sky is Falling every day, NWO!
get mad, get involved, be very afraid!
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Skeptimistic
Mountain climber
La Mancha
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Definition of AEROSOL
1: a suspension of fine solid or liquid particles in gas <smoke, fog, and mist are aerosols>; also plural : the fine particles of an aerosol <stratospheric aerosols>
the "gas" is our atmosphere, the fine liquid is >99% water. Aero- in the air, sol- solublized.
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