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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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May 30, 2013 - 02:37pm PT
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And a big round of applause to the Chief who patiently brings to our attention the reality of observations vz the fiction of the models.
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Skeptimistic
Mountain climber
La Mancha
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May 30, 2013 - 02:38pm PT
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Definition of ANIMAL
1: any of a kingdom (Animalia) of living things including many-celled organisms and often many of the single-celled ones (as protozoans) that typically differ from plants in having cells without cellulose walls, in lacking chlorophyll and the capacity for photosynthesis, in requiring more complex food materials (as proteins), in being organized to a greater degree of complexity, and in having the capacity for spontaneous movement and rapid motor responses to stimulation
Looks like the protozoan is considered an animal.
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raymond phule
climber
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May 30, 2013 - 02:52pm PT
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And a big round of applause to the Chief who patiently brings to our attention the reality of observations vz the fiction of the models.
I really cant understand how he does that when he show figures that show that the models are pretty accurate. How accurate need a model be so that you do not call it a fiction model? A prediction error of less than 10^-20 degrees?
It is like Ron show a figure that show that the ice cover is shrinking when he at the same time say that the ice cover is not shrinking.
I really can't understand the logic that the "sceptics" in this thread use.
The Chief's last figure is interesting when it seems to suggest that a periodic model is better at predicting the temperature than the mainstream models by showing a plot from the last 10 years when it is obvious that the same periodic model would fail completely before the start of that time window.
But I guess that the prediction power of a model that predicts what you want to hear is proved after comparing its prediction after a time interval of maybe a year or two but that the prediction power of models that you do not liked is disproved if the error is larger than 10-5 after a prediction time of 30 years.
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mountainlion
Trad climber
California
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May 30, 2013 - 03:09pm PT
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Jennie I believe the earth began when Joseph Smith was struck with a blinding light and awoke with a set of golden plates a new "prophet"...seriously I can't stand mormons and find it hard to discuss ANYTHING with one...SORRY.
Earth is 4.6 billion years old (give or take a hundred million years) based on radiometric age dating.
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Skeptimistic
Mountain climber
La Mancha
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May 30, 2013 - 03:12pm PT
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I was asking for something you can walk, pet, or watch swimming about in the aquarium.. Said that right after the original post.
Here's your redefinition of your original "life form" post:
guess i should have specified actual living creature- animal type life, not organisms fossilized.;-)
Don't see any mention of multicellular. Be specific and you won't have to read our criticisms.
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mountainlion
Trad climber
California
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May 30, 2013 - 03:17pm PT
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THE CHIEF IS A HYPOCRIT!!!
HIS SILENCE TO MY PROOF OF IT IS DEAFENING!!
HE LOVES AND TRUSTS SCIENCE JUST AS MUCH AS HE LIKES TO ARGUE!!
RON 2!!
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Jennie
Trad climber
Elk Creek, Idaho
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May 30, 2013 - 03:32pm PT
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...seriously I can't stand mormons and find it hard to discuss ANYTHING with one...SORRY.
I didn't pose the question as adversarial, mountainlion.
...but my sympathetic apologies, anyway. I'll honor the walls of your tender refuge.
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Skeptimistic
Mountain climber
La Mancha
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May 30, 2013 - 03:40pm PT
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For all of the grief you get on this forum, I'd think you'd know the results of that type of logic by now...
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crunch
Social climber
CO
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May 30, 2013 - 03:45pm PT
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Oldest and still living life form: Cyanobacteria
No way, Skeptimistic.
Not while Fred still stalks the Earth.
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mountainlion
Trad climber
California
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May 30, 2013 - 05:48pm PT
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EVERYBODY should check out the climate change and the wild places you love thread!! First hand accounts, stories, and pics---obviously not funded by big oil!!
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Skeptimistic
Mountain climber
La Mancha
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May 30, 2013 - 08:27pm PT
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Not while Fred still stalks the Earth.
Meh, he's just a babe in arms compared to my withered countenance....
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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May 30, 2013 - 08:32pm PT
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Meh, he's just a babe in arms compared to my withered countenance....
this thread is no good without photos.....
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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May 30, 2013 - 09:35pm PT
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Upthread i struggled to ask a stupid science question. The phrasing should have been what are the effects of various variable values in the solar spectrum on atmospheric chemistry. Anyway, i don't wonder why nobody answered since the question was asked incorrectly. I found a new study addressing this and it is fascinating-scientists thinking outside of the CO2 religion box.see below.Of course, i don't understand a lot of the language so pointing out my ignorance is appreciated.The svensmark Aarhus paper i already saw. CLOUD experiment is expected to generate a new paper interpreting results in July, i believe.
http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1210/1210.6844.pdf
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Jennie
Trad climber
Elk Creek, Idaho
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May 30, 2013 - 09:45pm PT
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There are those that claim our solar system is a second generation system partially formed from the leftovers of a previous supernova
Pretty germane, Rick, the consequences of a supernova are very relevant accounting in the age of the Earth. The 4.54 ± 0.05 billion year age of the planet is an estimate based on the measurement of radioactive isotopes in meteorites in the earths crust.
The accretion disk from which the solar system (and Earth) formed contained radio-isotopes from a supernova explosion. Most geological samples from Earth are unable to give a direct date of the formation of Earth from the solar nebula because Earth has undergone differentiation and mixing into the core, mantle, and crust which skews the isotopic date.
Meteorites considered to represent the primitive material from which the accreting solar disk was formed.can be accurately dated from the origin of isopes within... and the stages in the development of the planet estimated from mathematical models.
The timeframe for accretion and cooling of the planet's crust is much shorter than what I supposed.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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May 30, 2013 - 09:45pm PT
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Read it anyway-it needs review and criticism.
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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May 30, 2013 - 09:48pm PT
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you seem pretty up on it Rick
how about you giving your review and criticism, and support, if warranted in your opinion?
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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May 30, 2013 - 09:59pm PT
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As you have subtly alluded to Norton-i don't have the qualifications. However im just dumb enough to give it a slight stab. They seem to have manipulated observed data and incorporated into their own model enough to have accounted for the warming trend of the eighties,nineties, and the flatlining in temps deviating from steady CO2 increase of this decade. A better fit with reality?- i don't know, i have not the ability to verify their equations. Why dont you give it a go Norton?
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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May 30, 2013 - 10:19pm PT
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yeah rick, pretty sure you would pick out any parts that supported your own bias
I don't have a dog in this hunt, don't have a bias and not interested in converting anyone
I guess I will just throw my hat in with the 97% of the world's peer reviewed scientists who have produced study after study after study proving the earth is warming not only now, especially with all the heat records broken last summer, but also that the CO2 levels now are at the highest level in our recorded history and very likely due to human causes
that's good enough for me until or unless the best science climate people in the world change their opinion, but again I don't care or have an agenda personally
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