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Toker Villain
Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
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You were saying?
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Norton
climber
The Wastelands
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The Moron in chief today said * "I am a tariff man"
stock market reacts down 780 DOW points
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blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
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For you traders, the quip now is instead of "Buy The Dips," it's time to "Sell the Rallies."
Of course like all these cliches, it will be true for a while, until it isn't.
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briham89
Big Wall climber
santa cruz, ca
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I like how most of the mainstream financial news on Monday said, markets rally over US China trade war de-escalation, and the very next day the news says, markets tumble over US China trade worries....literally the next day. Seems they are always grasping for the easiest explanation AFTER market movement.
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briham89
Big Wall climber
santa cruz, ca
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How many people were calling a top in 2000 and 2007? I was quite a bit younger and not as involved in equity trading for either of those, so I really don't know. But it seems the sting of 2008 is ever present and more and more people are starting to think the top / decline is looming. Will that in itself play a role? What was the sentiment in 2007?
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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If you read Shiller, or others, the market triggers are rarely foreseen. Yes, the evidence accumulates, sometimes to the point that any crankloon can see it (as in 2000), but the actual trigger(s) are often far more prosaic and even seemingly mundane, at first. The thing is the popular media never gets it right, before or afterwards. Yes, a lot of data is ‘trending’ negatively right now but it isn’t overwhelming and and number of supposedly sacrosanct truisms concerning recessions and what causes them aren’t necessarily true anymore just like the Fed’s and the ECB’s monetary policies aren’t quite as efficacious with regards to inflation and stimulating demand as they were formerly held to be. The ECB in particular is quite at sixes and sevens in this regard mainly because the 800 pound gorilla in their room is that vast array of competition stifling EU rules and regs concerning how to wipe yer bum, amongst sundry other idiotic things.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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What was the sentiment in 2007?
Housing prices to rents were near an all time high, corporate price to earnings was very high, and debt levels were very high.
And the sentiment was what could possibly go wrong? The financial brain trust had made financial crisis a thing of the past.
If you had a pulse you could get loan to buy a house. And having a pulse was optional.
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john hansen
climber
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I remember driving thru Manteca or Stockton in 07 and seeing tracks of new homes right next to 99. Each house had maybe 5 foot setbacks so 10 ft between houses. There was a big sign saying "in the low 400's".
They probably still are not worth that much.
You could see the loans being offered with nothing down and a big payment 5 years down the line. Most who bought with that type of loan figured they would sell it for profit before that larger payments started.
I remember thinking 'this is getting a bit crazy..".
A friend of mine changed all his portfolio to bonds a couple days before the first 700 point drop around Sept 14 2008. Good move.
I did not have as much back then but was down 30 percent or more. Just kept maxing out the 401 k every year after that. You don't lose anything until you cash out.
As a broker of mine once said, 'if it gets that bad I will save you a spot in the soup kitchen line'.
The run from 2009 to now has been unprecedented. Even after today it is still up a 3 percentage points over last year at this time.
It's still up 1 % just from last Tuesday. Still over 25,000 and right in the middle of the high and low in the past 12 month's.
https://money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow/
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D'Wolf
climber
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Bear market coming...
Probably begin early/mid January but won't be evident until March/April
At least that's what it looks like right now. I've moved to cash. A Drop in the S&P below 2630 and my standing short sell kicks in.
If the S&P can rally with follow-through above 2800 then I'll consider buying back in but for now, it looks like we're headed down...
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i'm gumby dammit
Sport climber
da ow
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I like how most of the mainstream financial news on Monday said, markets rally over US China trade war de-escalation, and the very next day the news says, markets tumble over US China trade worries....literally the next day. Seems they are always grasping for the easiest explanation AFTER market movement.
Maybe it's because after the meeting the twidiot in chief tweeted "China has agreed to reduce and remove tariffs on cars coming into China from the U.S. Currently the tariff is 40%."
It is now questionable whether any sort of deal was actually reached. Seems like this was exactly the type of situation that led to Musk's departure from Tesla.
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EdwardT
Trad climber
Retired
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How many people were calling a top in 2000 and 2007?
A lot of people.
There was an entire niche of housing bubble bloggers that started around late 2003 or early 2004 and it became a frantic, thriving thing. Calculated Risk, Ben Jones's Housing Bubble Blog, Ritholtz, Cara, Yves Smith's Naked Capitalism blog, Financial Sense, Shedlock, and dozens of others. Anyone who was paying attention knew. I can't remember which blogger it was, but one of them made it his mission to eviscerate the chief economist for the National Assoc of Realtors, David Leareah, every time he issued a statement or commentary on the housing market because he was a cheerleader shill who refused to acknowledge how overheated the market had grown and how unsustainable the prices were.
Does it really count if you forecast gloom and doom, while the slow moving Dow climbs another 80%.
The gurus over at Zero Hedge have been regularly calling for a crash for about nine years. Eventually, they'll be right.
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Fritz
Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
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Topic Author's Reply - Dec 5, 2018 - 06:41am PT
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Oh Boy! Bloomberg says the market is setting records not seen, since when Nixon was President. Thanks Trump.
Market statisticians are falling over each other in 2018 to describe the pain being felt across asset classes. One venerable shop frames it this way: Things haven’t been this bad since Richard Nixon’s presidency.
Ned Davis Research puts markets into eight big asset classes — everything from bonds to U.S. and international stocks to commodities. And not a single one of them is on track to post a return this year of more than 5 percent, a phenomenon last observed in 1972, according to Ed Clissold, a strategist at the firm.
In terms of losses, investors have seen far worse. But going by the breadth of assets failing to deliver upside, 2018 is starting to look historic.
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SteveW
Trad climber
The state of confusion
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7:50 am DJ down another 799. . . bear bear bear. . .
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monolith
climber
state of being
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Markets are closed today.
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SteveW
Trad climber
The state of confusion
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Oops. My bad.
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neebee
Social climber
calif/texas
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hey there say, SteveW... last address i had for holiday card, was no good...
is there anyway you email you address to one of the climbers that i know here... (one that might be at facebook and then, they can email me the address) ...
:)
thanks... i always remembered, years back, when all you all helped out,
for me, sooo long ago, so-- always wanted to keep up, being thanksful...
(i think the card did not make it, last year) :O
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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If he was “right in the bubble, he was right in the recovery” then he made de facto “market timing calls”, didn’t he? 😉
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