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tdg119
Social climber
Northampton, PA
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Aug 23, 2013 - 09:33am PT
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The strangest thing for me is when I look at Matts phone records. On the morning of the 17th he turned is phone on at 2.53am PT. No other time during the month/entire trip was his phone on this early.
It was clock work, he always turned it off by 9 or 10pm and the earliest he ever turned on was 6am. I am guessing to save the battery....
Why on the day that he goes missing is the phone turned on so early? To call for help, maybe, foul play - who knows?
We know for a fact the night before (on the 16th) everything was fine, he was texting back and forth to friends until 9.30pm, joking, etc... No mention of a big hike the next day.
Even when he did go on big hikes, when he did get up early, he never turned his phone on that early. Only on the 17th, the day he disappeared his phone goes on the middle of the night???
To me this indicates something happened at 2.53am, which means he did not get far from camp.
-Ron
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tdg119
Social climber
Northampton, PA
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Aug 23, 2013 - 09:50am PT
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good point cragman, but why only this day....it doesnt fit his pattern. BTW, this is Ron (Tiffany's Husband). I user her logon and try to always sign "-Ron" when its me. :)
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Leggs
Sport climber
Tucson, AZ
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Aug 23, 2013 - 09:52am PT
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This thread is incredible, in every way.
I find myself in awe, once again, how our community comes together in times of need, rallies, and supports one another.
I will admit my heart skips a beat when I see it bumped, then relief at the fact so many of you are offering up your expertise and time to search for Matthew.
~Blessings to all of you... and positive vibes for all involved, esp family and friends missing their loved one.
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tdg119
Social climber
Northampton, PA
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Aug 23, 2013 - 10:07am PT
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He had a really old flip phone. No internet access, etc..The thing was a dinosaur.
-Ron
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10b4me
Ice climber
Wishes-He-Was-In-Arizona
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Aug 23, 2013 - 10:22am PT
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He was paying for his spot day to day. He must have paid for the night of July 16. Did he pay for the 17th? It's not a busy camp, but how long would they leave his tent standing until the campground host noticed? Was he paying for his site on his own or sharing it with someone?
excellent questions
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tdg119
Social climber
Northampton, PA
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Aug 23, 2013 - 10:35am PT
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Agree with Riley.~Ron
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patrick compton
Trad climber
van
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Aug 23, 2013 - 10:47am PT
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So if there is to be a search locally, can dogs be used?
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climbski2
Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
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Aug 23, 2013 - 10:49am PT
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Other things to consider.
Where would the missing gear be if it was not on him? Sold? Perhaps but my guess is he had it with him.
How much traffic does ritter/banner see? I'm guessing fairly regular traffic.
Traffic seems a key point. I would suggest that he is not in a highly traveled position. I would suggest he is within 4 to 7 miles of a trailhead with a shuttle. I would suggest that his objective was a summit via a route that had or was expected to have snow or ice.
Of course it's quite possible that he did something else completely. But I still think he went somewhere very lightly or rarely traveled.
I think the area Cragman is planning to search fits the bill perfectly. Good luck.
Lots of good thinking going in the above posts.
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10b4me
Ice climber
Wishes-He-Was-In-Arizona
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Aug 23, 2013 - 10:56am PT
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Any bouldering near Shady Rest
The Geothermal boulders just east of 395. An easy walk down 203. A couple of miles from the cg.
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east side underground
climber
Hilton crk,ca
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Aug 23, 2013 - 10:58am PT
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anyone check the blue couliar under blue crag? close to town , still has snow, cell reception would bounce off the mountian. closet spot to town to play with ice gear. ????
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climbski2
Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
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Aug 23, 2013 - 11:00am PT
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I was thinking about the warm weather and what it does after a few days .. to phrase delicately. How that would likely (but not absolutely) be noticed in heavy traffic areas.
But there really are not any good ways to rule out much at all in this case. Frustrating for sure.
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10b4me
Ice climber
Wishes-He-Was-In-Arizona
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Aug 23, 2013 - 11:00am PT
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QITNL brought up some excellent questions
The guy who picked up Matt's car, did he check Matt's site at Shady Rest?
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splitter
Trad climber
SoCal Hodad, surfing the galactic plane
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Aug 23, 2013 - 11:12am PT
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Also...the whole missing gear thing...why would have he taken that particular gear if not going to a spot he could use it. just thinkin'...perhaps he decided to take his expensive boots etc, with him rather than leave them in camp and risk having them stolen...or maybe he wanted to weigh down his pack to get in better shape on a day hike...or maybe someone made him an $$ offer on it he couldn't refuse...or maybe he wanted to take a pic of the stuff in the foreground and with Minarets a long way off in the background...or perhaps ...!
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crankster
Trad climber
South Lake Tahoe, CA
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Aug 23, 2013 - 11:13am PT
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Like a lot of you, Matt's mysterious disappearance has been foremost in my thoughts since I learned about it. Since I live a few hours away, I'm familiar with the area around Mammoth and have climbed and hiked in the area a lot over the last 30+ years. I've tried to learn as much about Matt as I can to try to figure out what he was most likely to do on July 17th. Like Cragman, I keep coming back to the Ritter Range as the most likely scenario (not the only scenario); primarily for 2 reasons: 1) the gear that was missing from his car and presumably with him, 2) Ritter is the highest peak around, a major climbing goal and one that he could have done in a long day. There's been no indication he had already climbed it. There are snowfields/glaciers in the Ritter Range.
Others, QITNL, etc. have brought up some good points. I'll throw my hat in on those subjects:
La Sportiva Nepal Extreme's. In the Sierra, useful only for steep snow/ice climbs. Nobody would carry them in a pack unless the objective involved the same. Overkill in the Sierra, but if it was his only heavy boot I could see him taking them. Could he have sold them (and the big pack) to raise $$ for car repair? It's always bugged me that he didn't take a mid-sized pack. Who would he have sold them to? Is there a used gear store in Mammoth?
2:53 am cell phone goes on. If he was doing a long day trip like Ritter, 3 am would be a good time to get up. Maybe he woke up and checked for messages. Still don't know how he got to the trailhead before the shuttle...
Foul play. Always a possibility, but I haven't heard anything to suggest signs of a struggle, etc.
With apologies to the family, I think everyone has also considered a couple of other possibilities: this is all a hoax or he staged his disappearance. Please don't take offense; we all hear a news story and give it the smell test, don't we? Is there anything that just doesn't sound right, etc.? That said, there's nothing at all to suggest a hoax. The family's agony is so real we can all feel it, even though they are on the other side of the country. We look at his picture and thing, wow, that could be me or my brother or son. It's heartbreaking. I've also heard nothing about Matt's life to indicate he would have chosen to disappear. He sounds grounded and full of life - with things to live for. I do wonder if he was in a relationship, however.
If I had to come up with something that was bugging me, it would be this: the other climbers he spent time with in Mammoth - why haven't we heard from them directly? We are getting messages relayed back though Tiffany & Ron, yes, but I'd like to hear a detailed first-hand report of the weeks leading up to July 17th. The list of climbs he apparently had done - especially the V-Notch couloir & North Peak - it would be useful to hear from his partners. Things like "we hiked into the base of the Palisade's, Matt was carrying his large MHW pack and carrying his Nepal Extreme's, complaining about bringing these huge boots to the Sierra"...this kind of information or anything like it that would give us more insight.
To QITNL point about Sierra choss - I agree. I've done Clyde by the SE Face and regular route, also, Ritter & Banner and I didn't leave feeling like "wow, I have to get back and do those again!"
Matt was obviously ready to get out of town but with one last day he might have looked to Ritter and decided he needed to knock it off. Cragman is headed out again to risk his life searching that area and I think it's still the strongest possibility.
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tdg119
Social climber
Northampton, PA
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Aug 23, 2013 - 11:38am PT
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how do we do a differential?
What do we know?
-July 16th @10pm everything is AOK. Car will be ready and Matt is planning on leaving town on July 18th
-Day = July 17th
-Starting point is Shady Rest.
-Phone on at 2.53am
-There is very strong evidence he was going to do some dangerous stuff.
Ice, climbing, glacier. Did have crampons, mountain boots and ice axe
-No sleeping bag, bivy, tent, ropes or helmet.
-He would not have sold his gear (he borrowed the crampons from a friend, they were not his to sell) Matt has money in his bank account.
-Mats credit cards, or debit cards were not used after July 16th.
-Everything was neatly folded at the Camp Site for return on the 17th. He paid for that Night in advance.
Differential:
-Option 1 = He took a bus or hitched a ride. If so, area is too large to search. Therefore, we cannot focus on Option 1, just would not make sense for us (by us I mean the team in the immediate area) agreed?
-Option 2 = Left early (based on phone time) and walked. It is more likely he did not hitch a ride, someone would have come forward, there are not many cars running this early, busses not running yet, etc.
-Heading = to snow, ice area
-Did not expect falling rock (no helmet)- he is just too careful.
-Max walking radius from Shady Rest based on Matts ability = 10 miles (20 miles round trip)
-Planned to be back before dark, 1 day hike, in and out
-He would have stuck to the trails at the start and end (his goal is to ice, snow climb, not hike)
Open Items:
-What areas are snowy & icy within 10 miles walking distance from Shady Rest on July 17th?
-Can we draw a radius on a map, assume trailheads as starts, etc?
~Ron
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HighTraverse
Trad climber
Bay Area
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Aug 23, 2013 - 11:42am PT
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And if I were getting my car out of the shop in the next few days I think I would be more inclined to stay closer to town as the completion date neared I'd say it's just as likely he went for a day long outing.
He'd spent a long time in Mammoth and may have planned to get out of town as soon as his car was fixed. I'd go on a long walkabout.
4:30-4:35 calls to/from the garage were pinging from on top of mammoth or north of there. Which makes no sense. Why would he be in town all day and then go up to mountain. Makes sense to me. Got bored, finished all the chores (clean laundry folded), nice afternoon. You can't see the spectacular sunset over the Minarets from down in Mammoth. Hike up to Minarets Summit and north along the ridge for the stunning late afternoon views.
Do we know which cell tower his 2:53 AM ping was from?
Why just a ping? What if he was making an EARLY start, meant to call and tell someone about it? Decided not to wake up his friends at 06:00 EDT? Didn't think he'd gotten a good connection? Battery went dead?
Did anyone find out if he'd ridden the shuttle bus on the 17th?
I, for one, have been assuming Matt took his big pack, boots and crampons with him.
That's actually a big assumption.
Another possibility is Matt was the victim of foul play at 02:53.
It's possible a thief came for these items and not the rest of his gear and Matt got entangled with said thief.
It's possible Matt didn't go on a hike with the missing equipment.
I only raise this as a different rational explanation for his missing gear.
My "gut" feeling says he went on a long hike with intent to climb steep snow/ice and met with a mishap. If so there's about equal probability that he's on a commonly traveled area or not.
On Page 1 TMJesse had some good observations about surprise hazards in the Minaret/Ritter region.
Perhaps TeddyKGeeBee can write up a complete list of what we KNOW and what is supposition?
EDIT: HAH tdg has done just that.
One other rather sordid thought. Might Matt have gone partying the night of Jan 16, had too much to drink/smoke, and fallen in with bad company? Is that in his character?
The big assumption most of us have made is that Matt's a straight up guy and would never have gotten into that sort of trouble.
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10b4me
Ice climber
Wishes-He-Was-In-Arizona
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Aug 23, 2013 - 11:53am PT
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This whole thing intrigues me.
It's a bit of walk from Shady Rest cg to Ritter
Did the camp host talk to Matt?
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tdg119
Social climber
Northampton, PA
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Aug 23, 2013 - 12:04pm PT
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Camp host did not talk to matt on or near that day. - The only strange thing here is the host did not report Matt missing when he never returned, even though he paid for that night in advance. He just threw his tent into storage when Matt never came back and went on like nothing happened, never called the police. Nothing, the police actually had to call him a week or so later.
Matt does not smoke, drink a lot, or party. He is a teacher subject to random drug tests but more importantly its def. not his style. The guy ran the Boston marathon (drug test again, top shape, etc.)
He was in his tent at shady rest by 8pm PT the night before (July 16th) texting to friends and signed off saying he was going to bed around 9.30pm PT.
~ Ron
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crankster
Trad climber
South Lake Tahoe, CA
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Aug 23, 2013 - 12:14pm PT
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Wow, I was unaware the camp host put his stuff in storage. Not a bright person. A missing person's report earlier would have been helpful.
If he was in his tent at 8 pm texting friends that he was specifically going to sleep at 9:30 pm I'd think he would have mentioned something if he was getting up at 3 am to go on a big day-climb the next day. Leads me to believe he might not have made plans for the 17th until he woke up.
What about his climbing friend's trip report?
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Aug 23, 2013 - 12:19pm PT
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The only strange thing here is the host did not report Matt missing when he never returned, even though he paid for that night in advance. He just threw his tent into storage when Matt never came back and went on like nothing happened, never called the police. Nothing, the police actually had to call him a week or so later.
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