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BASE104
Social climber
An Oil Field
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Dec 29, 2012 - 02:24pm PT
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Ron, I would take you more seriously if I didn't have to read the "other Ron," who blathers misinformed baloney on other threads. It just makes it too hard to decide to even read what you post.
Calm down, take a deep breath, and go study up on your topic. There is so much gun data out there and nobody is really using it.
Posting charts and numbers is the way for an attorney to win a lawsuit or criminal case. One of my best friends told me that exact thing (yeah, he is a criminal defense lawyer).
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Crimpergirl
Sport climber
Boulder, Colorado!
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Dec 29, 2012 - 02:45pm PT
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My point with the post upthread about looking at crime statistics is that they require interpretation.
So, for DC, one has to consider the influx of people daily when seeing the high rate. Yes, the crime happened there. But the high rate is also attributable to the way these rates are calculated.
In some places outside of NYC (e.g., NJ) the crime rates may appear lower because so much of that population leaves everyday to go to NYC. If there aren't people there, there are fewer there to be victimized and fewer to offend.
The same is true when looking at other places that do not have a big influx or out-flux (sp?) of people on a daily basis. Perhaps Wyoming is a place like that. Or Alaska.
Just my two cents.
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mechrist
Gym climber
South of Heaven
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Dec 29, 2012 - 02:57pm PT
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HOW MANY studies in the past, have since been proven NON-SENSE???
Just the ones that were wrong.
Coffee? Bacon?? The list is endless. One year coffee is bad, the next its good.
It is your understanding that is wrong. Show me one credible study that says "coffee is bad." There ain't one. There are studies that say coffee contains compounds that cause cancer in significant populations of test rodents, that coffee causes gastrointestinal problems in some test subjects, or that coffee may cause increases in LDL cholesterol. EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THESE CLAIMS ARE REPRODUCIBLE, VERIFIABLE, AND WILL NOT BE PROVEN TO BE NON-SENSE
The problem is, you don't know a study from a report about the study, which may INTERPRET the results as good or bad. See?
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Crimpergirl
Sport climber
Boulder, Colorado!
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Dec 29, 2012 - 03:14pm PT
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True...if a body goes missing and no one knows that except the one who whacked them, they won't show in FBI homicide or NVSS death certificate numbers.
We call the amount of crime that the police don't learn about (for whatever reason) the "dark figure of crime". :) Sinister, eh?
Lots of time our memories do something called 'telescoping'. That is we draw closer in time events that happened - especially salient events. This is natural human behavior. I used to tell people who asked that I'd been divorced 4 years. After some time, I realized I'd been saying that a long time...turns out it'd been 8 years! Ha!
People may tell others they just moved in their home 4 months ago when it was 9 months ago in reality.
And we may recount stories of murders that we describe to others as happening 6 months ago, but if we checked, they likely happened much longer ago.
As a result, the more recent past gets 'crowded' with things that really occurred over a longer period.
All this to say, that in 2011, those are the numbers of murders (and other crimes) that the police agency learned about and reported to the police. All are likely undercounts, but it is thought that murder is our best reported crime.
I am on an excellent work-avoidance roll today. :) Back to exciting age-adjusted rates on violence against Hispanics for me.
EDIT: I googled "carson city nevada" murder 2011 and all I see coming up are the four murdered in IHOP. Granted, it was a fast search, but do you know of any others?
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Crimpergirl
Sport climber
Boulder, Colorado!
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Dec 29, 2012 - 03:28pm PT
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Yes, there was at least one suicide, and 2 were shot on a crime spree that started in Reno, and a man was shot in brunswick canyon right near me a while back. Thats just off the top o me head..
The FBI doesn't collect suicide info. That will be found at the CDC in the NVSS data (look upthread for WISQARS). Also, if two guys get shot and killed (and it was not deemed justifiable) it will be recorded in Reno even if the crime spree ended in Carson City.
Be fun to see if the spree you speak of was really in 2011. Fun to see telescoping at work. I do it all the time. :)
edit: Is this it? http://carsonnow.org/story/11/30/2011/young-reno-mom-faces-two-decades-prison-robbery-spree-ended-death. I can't get to the rest of the story. Looks like 2011 indeed. But looks like it got recorded in Reno vs. CC
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Crimpergirl
Sport climber
Boulder, Colorado!
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Dec 29, 2012 - 03:34pm PT
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cain't remember sh#t. I got it too.
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Crimpergirl
Sport climber
Boulder, Colorado!
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Dec 29, 2012 - 04:23pm PT
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I was talking to my mom on the phone yesterday. I wasn't paying attention to her as I could not find where I left my darn cell phone. It's new so I was getting grumpy at having lost it already. I'm looking here, looking there, under papers, in my lap, everywhere. Happily it only took about two minutes to realize I was TALKING on the stupid thing.
Not the first time I've done that either. :/
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Crimpergirl
Sport climber
Boulder, Colorado!
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Dec 29, 2012 - 04:46pm PT
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Not patronizing Joe. Just explaining.
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mechrist
Gym climber
South of Heaven
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Dec 29, 2012 - 05:31pm PT
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Ron, Ignoratio elenchi... look it up.
edit: Wes,, thank the TRPA and THEIR "studies" for the Angora fire.
TRPA is a pain in the ass, so what?
BTW, I'm very familiar with the Angora Fire. I watched it start from the Pie Choss. I also studied fire effects and post-fire restoration hydrology for several years with the likes of Robichaud, Hubbert, and Elliot. So with that... please be more specific regarding the problems you have with the report and I will help you sort it out.
They waggled "STUDIES" in our faces in 1980, 81, 82,84.
And that has what to do with the Angora Fire (or guns for that matter)?
Their studies said the USFS was full of crap.
I'd like to see a "study" that says anyone was full of crap.
When one of the most BRILLIANT foresters ever to be in FED service was at the ready to SOLVE some problems in Tahoe.
I worked 6 years as a seasonal and 6 years as a full-time FS employee. I can assure you there are no BRILLIANT foresters (or other workers) in the FS. Some good people, definitely smart, but no where near BRILLIANT. And NO problems in the natural world get SOLVED by any humans.
We got DENIED. Due to "studies" that have since been proven utterly disastrous.
I don't believe you, mainly because you refuse to back up any of your sh#t talk with anything but your decades old opinion and undereducated understanding of the natural world. Show me the "studies" and we can go from there... or just continue blurting out your opinion as if it were fact and wonder why everyone gives you sh#t. Your choice, obviously.
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Ksolem
Trad climber
Monrovia, California
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Dec 29, 2012 - 05:32pm PT
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In 1997 UK introduced a ban on handgun ownership following the “Dunblane Massacre” which left 16 children and their teacher dead, all shot by a madman with handguns.
In 2001 BBC News printed an article showing the results of a study carried out by the Center for Defense Studies at King’s College from which I quote:
“A new study suggests the use of handguns in crime rose by 40% in the two years after the weapons were banned.”
“It also said there was no link between high levels of gun crime and areas where there were still high levels of lawful gun possession. Of the 20 police areas with the lowest number of legally held firearms, 10 had an above average level of gun crime. And of the 20 police areas with the highest levels of legally held guns only two had armed crime levels above the average.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/1440764.stm
More recently, in 2009, the UK Daily Mail published government figures which show that gun crime nearly doubled during the decade since the ban.
“The latest Government figures show that the total number of firearm offences in England and Wales has increased from 5,209 in 1998/99 to 9,865 last year - a rise of 89 per cent. In some parts of the country, the number of offences has increased more than five-fold. “
“Last week, police in London revealed they had begun carrying out armed patrols on some streets. The move means officers armed with sub-machine guns are engaged in routine policing for the first time.”
“The gun crime figures, which were obtained by the Tories from official Parliamentary answers, do not include air weapons. But they provide the first regional breakdown of the increasing use of firearms. Lancashire suffered the single largest rise in gun crime, with recorded offences increasing from 50 in 1998/99 to 349 in 2007/08, an increase of 598 per cent."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1223193/Culture-violence-Gun-crime-goes-89-decade.html#ixzz2GTwmlif6
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mechrist
Gym climber
South of Heaven
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Dec 29, 2012 - 05:39pm PT
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mechrist
Gym climber
South of Heaven
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Dec 29, 2012 - 05:50pm PT
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I have a folder full of awards and certs... some came framed, some are in those nifty little plastic presentation cases, others were just a nice letter with an even nicer check (I got 2-3 of those a year). I can go look through those if you would like... as soon as you provide ANYTHING concrete (other than your opinion) to support ANYTHING you are spouting on about (guns, fire, TRPA, forestry, whatever).
I'm familiar with J. Sessions from the fire literature,up at OSU(?). Same guy? If so, yeah, he's smart for sure... but brilliant?
BTW, you still haven't even mentioned what you are even talking about, other than you hate TRPA. What exactly is a "perfect example of things to be, that indeed are now the case."
What did you put more effort into for a few years?
What did you spend COUNTLESS hours in the field AND office on?
For the record, this is a gun thread... in which you bring up TRPA and the Angora Fire and a bunch of other vague, unrelated stuff. Have you looked up Ignoratio elenchi yet?
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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Dec 29, 2012 - 06:02pm PT
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Ignoratio elenchi, also known as irrelevant conclusion,[1] is the informal fallacy of presenting an argument that may or may not be logically valid, but fails nonetheless to address the issue in question.
Ignoratio elenchi falls into the broad class of relevance fallacies.[2] It is one of the fallacies identified by Aristotle in his Organon. In a broader sense he asserted that all fallacies are a form of ignoratio elenchi.[3][4]
Ignoratio Elenchi, according to Aristotle, is a fallacy which arises from “ignorance of the nature of refutation.” In order to refute an assertion, Aristotle says we must prove it's contradictory; the proof, consequently, of a proposition which stood in any other relation than that to the original, would be an ignoratio elenchi… Since Aristotle, the scope of the fallacy has been extended to include all cases of proving the wrong point… “I am required to prove a certain conclusion; I prove, not that, but one which is likely to be mistaken for it; in that lies the fallacy… For instance, instead of proving that ‘this person has committed an atrocious fraud,’ you prove that ‘this fraud he is accused of is atrocious;’” … The nature of the fallacy, then, consists in substituting for a certain issue another which is more or less closely related to it, and arguing the substituted issue. The fallacy does not take into account whether the arguments do or do not really support the substituted issue, it only calls attention to the fact that they do not constitute a proof of the original one… It is a particularly prevalent and subtle fallacy and it assumes a great variety of forms. But whenever it occurs and whatever form it takes, it is brought about by an assumption that leads the person guilty of it to substitute for a definite subject of inquiry another which is in close relation with it.[5]
—Arthur Ernest Davies, "Fallacies" in A Text-Book of Logic
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Ksolem
Trad climber
Monrovia, California
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Dec 29, 2012 - 06:11pm PT
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As evidence of rising gun crime since the ban was instituted, the author cited...possession of illegal firearms!
He's not citing those cases as part of the gun crime increase. Those are examples of heavy handed prosecutorial government behavior.
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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Dec 29, 2012 - 06:16pm PT
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California has the nation's strongest gun control laws -- and one of the lowest rates of gun deaths in the United States, according to a new study.
While news of shooting deaths in Oakland and elsewhere may lead some to believe otherwise, strong gun control laws in the Golden State have worked, according to the Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence.
California has 7.88 gun deaths per 100,000 people, the report found. Hawaii's rate was 3.31, and Alaska's was 20.28, the report found.
None of the major pro-gun organizations would comment on the report, according to the San http://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/Study-Stricter-Gun-Control-Means-Less-Gun-Deaths-184837431.html Chronicle.
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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Dec 29, 2012 - 06:18pm PT
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In 2009 and 2010, the most recent years for which information is available, California had the nation's strongest gun controls and the ninth-lowest rate of gun deaths, according to the Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence, which favors firearms regulation.
Connecticut had the fourth-strongest gun laws and was sixth-lowest in gun deaths, while Hawaii ranked fifth in gun control and had the lowest death rate.
At the other end of the scale, the report found that Alaska, Louisiana and Montana -- all graded F for gun control -- had the highest rates of deaths caused by gunfire, more than double California's rate. The law center graded all 50 states and gave an F, for weak regulation, to 24 of them.
In 2010, the report said, quoting the federal Centers for Disease Control, California had 7.88 gun deaths for each 100,000 residents, compared with rates of 3.31 in Hawaii and 20.28 in Alaska.
More research is needed on the links between specific weapons regulations and fatalities, but "the data supports the common-sense conclusion that gun laws are a significant factor in a state's rate of gun deaths," said the report.
Since the report's release last month, The Chronicle has forwarded it for comment to four gun-rights organizations: the National Rifle Association, the National Shooting Sports Foundation, Gun Owners of America and its state affiliate, Gun Owners of California. None replied to calls or e-mails.
Other recent studies have reached similar conclusions. A researcher at the University of Alabama at Birmingham reported in July that states requiring comprehensive background checks before gun purchases had lower death rates than those without such requirements.
http://www.kjrh.com/dpp/news/states-with-most-restrictive-gun-control-laws-have-lower-gun-related-deaths-study-finds
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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Dec 29, 2012 - 06:21pm PT
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Guns and Gun Control in the Old West: Another Commonly Believed Misconception:
Frontier towns -- places like Tombstone, Deadwood, and Dodge -- actually had the most restrictive gun control laws in the nation.
In fact, many of those same cities have far less burdensome gun control today then they did back in the 1800s.
Guns were obviously widespread on the frontier. Out in the untamed wilderness, you needed a gun to be safe from bandits, natives, and wildlife. In the cities and towns of the West, however, the law often prohibited people from toting their guns around. A visitor arriving in Wichita, Kansas in 1873, the heart of the Wild West era, would have seen signs declaring, "Leave Your Revolvers At Police Headquarters, and Get a Check."
A check? That's right. When you entered a frontier town, you were legally required to leave your guns at the stables on the outskirts of town or drop them off with the sheriff, who would give you a token in exchange. You checked your guns then like you'd check your overcoat today at a Boston restaurant in winter. Visitors were welcome, but their guns were not.
In my new book, Gunfight: The Battle over the Right to Bear Arms in America, there's a photograph taken in Dodge City in 1879. Everything looks exactly as you'd imagine: wide, dusty road; clapboard and brick buildings; horse ties in front of the saloon. Yet right in the middle of the street is something you'd never expect. There's a huge wooden billboard announcing, "The Carrying of Firearms Strictly Prohibited."
While people were allowed to have guns at home for self-protection, frontier towns usually barred anyone but law enforcement from carrying guns in public.http://www.huffingtonpost.com/adam-winkler/did-the-wild-west-have-mo_b_956035.html
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prickle
Gym climber
globe,az
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Dec 29, 2012 - 06:25pm PT
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wow i can't believe what a bunch of whining liberal pussies post on here, amazing.
waaaaaaa guns bad
waaaaa daddy gov. needs to ban them waaaaaaaaa
waaaaaa other countries ban them waaaaaaaaa
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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Dec 29, 2012 - 06:25pm PT
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DENIAL OF FACTS:
Denial, in ordinary English usage, is asserting that a statement or allegation is not true.[1] The same word, and also abnegation, is used for a psychological defense mechanism postulated by Sigmund Freud, in which a person is faced with a fact that is too uncomfortable to accept and rejects it instead, insisting that it is not true despite what may be overwhelming evidence.[2][3] The subject may use:
simple denial: deny the reality of the unpleasant fact altogether
minimisation: admit the fact but deny its seriousness (a combination of denial and rationalization)
projection: admit both the fact and seriousness but deny responsibility by blaming somebody or something else.
wiki psych
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