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Knotts
Mountain climber
State of Reality
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May 17, 2013 - 09:20pm PT
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The global temperature is not correlating with the rise in C02.
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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May 17, 2013 - 09:24pm PT
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sure look like there is a definite uptrend line from about 1975 on
290 to 340 is going up, not down or flat, eh?
you need an eye exam maybe?
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Knotts
Mountain climber
State of Reality
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May 17, 2013 - 09:24pm PT
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This is nothing new. High amounts of Atmospheric C02 that is. The current level comes no where near to what it has been in the past, many times.
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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May 17, 2013 - 09:26pm PT
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the only thing you are doing is making a fool of yourself
keep saying the earth is flat
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Knotts
Mountain climber
State of Reality
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May 17, 2013 - 09:29pm PT
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sure look like there is a definite uptrend line from about 1975 on
Certainly appears like it has stabilized around 2003 and is on the downward trend. The temps that is. 340 (.4 to .3 C actually) and dropping. Thus the "Negative" below. All the while the C02 is rising.
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BASE104
Social climber
An Oil Field
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May 17, 2013 - 10:17pm PT
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climate modeling of any kind can not nor should it be trusted to forecast the future accurately.
This is a foolish statement. I don't care if God said it. It is false.
There is a confusion between weather and climate. Weather is very specific on what will happen in a certain place at a certain time. If the predictions are wrong, it is because of the great difficulty in modeling non-linear systems that rely on numerous mathematical variables. However, if you run those models for 100 years, overall trends emerge. For instance, the jet stream is responsible for most weather. The latitude of the polar and subtropical jet can be modeled very successfully over many years, simply because it has a statistical nature defined by physics.
Climate is an easier topic. I could easily say that the temperature at the summit of Mammoth Mountain will not exceed 100 degrees F in January of next year. If anyone wishes to bet the farm with me on that then by all means, approach me.
Models are great. They are terrific. Due to computer time, they are run on a certain grid mesh. I deal with the same thing in geology. If I have my computer run on a 1000 foot grid mesh size, it takes far less computer time than if I choose to run it on a 250 foot grid mesh.
This is one of the reasons that the ECMWF model is superior to the U.S. models at the moment.
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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May 17, 2013 - 10:52pm PT
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Probably a meteor doubter
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McHale's Navy
Trad climber
Panorama City, California & living in Seattle
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May 17, 2013 - 11:09pm PT
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Dyson is a pretty funny guy - he should be a comic;
http://e360.yale.edu/feature/freeman_dyson_takes_on_the_climate_establishment/2151/
Dyson: Of course. No doubt that warming is happening. I don’t think it is correct to say “global,” but certainly warming is happening. I have been to Greenland a year ago and saw it for myself. And that’s where the warming is most extreme. And it’s spectacular, no doubt about it. And glaciers are shrinking and so on.
But, there are all sorts of things that are not said, which decreases my feeling of alarm. First of all, the people in Greenland love it. They tell you it’s made their lives a lot easier. They hope it continues. I am not saying none of these consequences are happening. I am just questioning whether they are harmful.
It's hard to shake Hubris - it's hard work.
Humans can land sophisticated spacecraft on other planets, they can find planets like ours in nearby sections of our galaxy, but predict Earth's future climate based on what we are doing to the atmosphere - No! We can't do that!
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BASE104
Social climber
An Oil Field
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May 18, 2013 - 12:22am PT
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That spike during the Jurassic and Cretaceous is associated with an extreme hothouse event as Pangea broke up, along with a large period of volcanism. It is well documented in the fossil record, as well as the distribution of flora fossils around the world. This event is the classic CO2 forced greenhouse event, and careful examination of stomata density of leaves, as well as the global distribution of a high organic content shale (which sourced most of the middle eastern oilfields) has been interpreted to be a global anoxic event caused by ocean acidification.
There has been a lot of work put into the Jurrasic/Cretaceous source rocks, due to their massive economic significance. This event is a sort of benchmark event. The CO2 concentration is fairly well known, and paleoclimatologists like to compare this event with the progression of the current warming event, which is also CO2 forced.
Sorry. I have been doing a little reading on the topic. I work the late Devonian shales and am more familiar with those.
It is true that the Earth's climate is cyclic, but the forcing events, such as Milankovich Cycles, are not presently in a hot period, which begs the question of why the earth is warming.
The warming is going to be high in the arctic of the northern hemisphere, and that area is already showing a loss of summer ice that can't be ignored. The possibility of an ice free NW passage is of great economic importance, and it is becoming easier to navigate the passage. A 27 foot sailboat did it in a few months last year. Nobody can ignore the loss of summer ice pack. Try to tell an eskimo that they aren't experiencing warming.
The upside to all of this is that all but the youngest among us will be safely dead by the time things get severely out of hand.
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mountainlion
Trad climber
California
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May 18, 2013 - 08:05am PT
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Blah Blah I haven't had time to do much research on past drought levels but found this link that details the severe drought in the U.S.--the organization has only been in place 12 years but check out the science and I will get more research done--or provide some yourself if you like.
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/drought2012news.html
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Knotts
Mountain climber
State of Reality
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May 18, 2013 - 09:20am PT
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One of the most important components of "Science" is it's unbiased and very infinite philosophy of open mindedness towards the issue/theory at hand. Appears that many here on ST and throughout the Climate Change "Industry" have thrown this very important rational concept out the door, locked it behind them and thrown away the key. They have replaced it with an ideological platform of one way politics and dogma. Any form of independent thinking is the enemy. Anyone with a contrary opinion of the matter is deemed a heretic and complete idiot. The consensus prevails and anyone with an opposing view or opinion is to be immediately terminated and buried.
This new philosophy really and honestly does not come close to the definition of science that most of us were taught many decades ago. Thinking out of the consensus box is not allowed according to the modern "gotta save the world" club of Climate Science. Not one tiny bit. The likes of Leonardo Di Vinci would most certainly be one of the primary outcasts from this very bias and ideological industry called Climate Science.
Now, refute that.
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Knotts
Mountain climber
State of Reality
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May 18, 2013 - 09:45am PT
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^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
That is exactly what the "consensus" of the time titled Di VInci. Thus you proved my point and not yours.
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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May 18, 2013 - 09:48am PT
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time to Man Up !
point by point refute the science of global warming
The Chief tried, failed, and disappeared
Rick Summer claims he can do it, but ,,,,,,waiting
and now knotts showes up, another new challenger!
how about it knotts?
will you finally be the denier to quit giving platitudes and personal opinions and get on with.....
REFUTE THE SCIENCE< POINT BY POINT
challenge, prove the science behind all the studies WRONG
pick a couple studies by respected scientists, and prove the science wrong in the studies!
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - May 18, 2013 - 10:59am PT
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One of the most important components of "Science" is it's unbiased and very infinite philosophy of open mindedness towards the issue/theory at hand. Appears that many here on ST and throughout the Climate Change "Industry" have thrown this very important rational concept out the door, locked it behind them and thrown away the key.
- Knott
OK Knott, how does this statement of yours square with this:
The most ambitious survey on the causes of climate change - covering 11,994 peer-reviewed papers by 29,000 scientists over 20 years - has found that 97.1% agree climate change is caused by human activity, with dissenters representing a "vanishingly small proportion."
12,000 peer-reviewed papers, 29,000 scientists, and over 97% agreement on cause.
You demanded I refute your statement, and I have. So it's your turn.
Please, if you are able, tell us how open mindedness has been thrown out the door here, and how us SuperTopians have no key.
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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May 18, 2013 - 03:20pm PT
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My motorcycle
also just as relevant as Ron's friend's house to the overall increase in the global warming cycle
notice no snow on the ground, this is proof the earth is not getting colder......
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Knotts
Mountain climber
State of Reality
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May 18, 2013 - 08:39pm PT
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You demanded I refute your statement, and I have.
You refuted nothing. You simply posted some numbers. Typical.
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blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
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May 18, 2013 - 08:52pm PT
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Bruce--gloat all you want about a hoax that apparently didn't fool anyone who has posted on this thread.
But I think even the real scientists who post here (and we're all thankful for their contributions I'm sure) would agree that we should be skeptics when evaluating any claim--that's the best mindset to have in science and in life. Granted we don't always have the time or perhaps the ability to form truly independent views on every subject, but it's kind of creepy that so many people on this thread are against skepticism per se.
Mountainlion--saw your posts but didn't have time to review much--just want to acknowledge your thoughtful replies. The theory that people are reporting more tornadoes (rather than their truly being more) reminds me of the "heat island effect" (not a perfect analogy)--I had initially thought that the heat island effect was an important component of the exaggeration of global warming, but I think the real scientists are all over that one now so I've dropped it.
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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May 18, 2013 - 09:29pm PT
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"its kinda creepy that so many people on this thread are against skepticism per se"
Really,97% dude.
I have plenty more ,if you can read ,upthread...........
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McHale's Navy
Trad climber
Panorama City, California & living in Seattle
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May 18, 2013 - 09:51pm PT
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I had initially thought that the heat island effect was an important component of the exaggeration of global warming
BlahBlah, you've probably also heard that concrete is responsible for flooding. Also, I doubt anyone here is against Skepticism 'per se'. That sounds like another dumb 'talking point'. Probaly the most Skeptical people are the climate scientists themselves - the ones creating the science. The science is not created without a healthy dose of skepticism in the process. You make it sound like the science comes out of the blue and you guys are the number one skeptics, which is ridiculous. Nobody really wants climate change to be happening either.
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Knotts
Mountain climber
State of Reality
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May 18, 2013 - 10:26pm PT
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the ones creating the science.
There lies the issue. They are indeed creating it. Fudging the numbers and data as they go along. Distorting the true real time science and creating it so they can continue to reinforce the propaganda of alarmism in order to substantiate the persistent delusion of the impending catastrophe and insisting that they can now predict the future. Oh the absurdity of it all.
It may in fact be warming. That I will give you. What & why is the forcing behind it? No one really knows with any absolute certainty. No one. Be very glad that it isn't as "hot" as it has been before on numerous occasions throughout this planets existence, regardless the cause.
Di Vinci is most certainly laughing at you all from his grave. That is a given. He is laughing at you all I tell you.
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