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Knotts
Mountain climber
State of Reality
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May 17, 2013 - 11:26am PT
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The above (Chiloe's Post) is not true and not according to the latest HATSST smoothed data.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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May 17, 2013 - 11:31am PT
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The above (Chiloe's Post) is not true and not according to the latest HATSST smoothed data.
That's a bunch of graphs, but try reading the abstract. Can you figure out what you're missing? Hint: I put it in bold.
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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May 17, 2013 - 11:32am PT
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when are you going to refute the science of climate change, Rick?
what are you waiting for, the time is now
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WBraun
climber
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May 17, 2013 - 11:36am PT
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So they just said:
"Survey finds 97% of climate science papers agree warming is man-made
Overwhelming majority of peer-reviewed papers taking a position on global warming say humans are causing it"
That's what I always saw too.
Or maybe I'm just a stupid American .......
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Knotts
Mountain climber
State of Reality
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May 17, 2013 - 11:37am PT
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Also this particular recently published peer reviewed study that throws a big time curve ball into Mann's Hockey Stick theory.
The international research team -- composed of scientists from Argentina, Chile, Germany, Switzerland, The Netherlands, the United Kingdom and the United States -- write that their summer temperature reconstruction suggests that "a warm period extended in SSA from 900 (or even earlier) to the mid-fourteenth century," which they describe as being temporally located "towards the end of the Medieval Climate Anomaly as concluded from Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions." And as can be seen from the figure below, the warmest decade of this Medieval Warm Period was calculated by them to be AD 1079-1088, which as best as can be determined from their graph is about 0.17°C warmer than the peak warmth of the Current Warm Period.
Reference
Neukom, R., Luterbacher, J., Villalba, R., Kuttel, M., Frank, D., Jones, P.D., Grosjean, M., Wanner, H., Aravena, J.-C., Black, D.E., Christie, D.A., D'Arrigo, R., Lara, A., Morales, M., Soliz-Gamboa, C., Srur, A., Urritia, R. and von Gunten, L. 2011. Multiproxy summer and winter surface air temperature field reconstructions for southern South America covering the past centuries. Climate Dynamics 37: 35-51.
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mountainlion
Trad climber
California
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May 17, 2013 - 11:46am PT
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Blah Blah I have seen many dramatic changes in terms of the weather in my short life for example:
Record rainfall and flooding in the last ten years in the upper midwest
Record drought, fires, and floods in the U.S., Asia, Australia
Record tornado numbers in the midwest and tornadoes in areas that had previously never had a tornado
Record snowfalls in several areas in the U.S.
Record breaking Hurricane hitting the northern U.S. (New York)
Record breaking heat waves in Europe, Australia, and the U.S.
All of these events are off the top of my head and have occured in the last ten years--I would have to search the internet for the dates...post up if you think that is worth my time...
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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May 17, 2013 - 11:50am PT
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And notwithstanding MountaionLions's belief that he himself has seen vast climate change in his 40-year life, it strains credulity to believe that many people can have personally noticed climate change, in light of the relatively small (and irregular) change so far compared to normal weather change.
You really can't think this through? I personally noticed climate change before I knew what it was. From skiers to gardeners to bird watchers, many people have noticed changes in similar directions, and if they talk to others or look up numbers they learn such changes are widespread. From Alaska Natives there are many narratives about it, as thousands of years of permafrost thaw or sea ice doesn't form like it used to, so shorelines with towns on them erode. From Mt. Kenya to Yerupajá to Cervino, mountain climbers could tell stories! You blandly imagine people living in the average, but of course they don't.
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the Fet
climber
Tu-Tok-A-Nu-La
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May 17, 2013 - 11:54am PT
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Scientists just want you to think the Earth is round so they can get money to sail around it.
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Knotts
Mountain climber
State of Reality
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May 17, 2013 - 11:58am PT
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hey Knott, why not post the reference to the plot?
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2011/dec/Neukometal2011b.gif
http://nipccreport.org/
The study and not the ref is what matters. Please do not detract the relevance of the peer reviewed study that clearly indicates a totally different picture than that of Mann's.
Will post more peer reviewed papers that counter Mann's Hockey scam paper later.
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WBraun
climber
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May 17, 2013 - 11:59am PT
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It's actually not very difficult to understand.
When mankind strays from harmony with nature, material nature will react.
It doesn't even take a laboratory.
The laboratory and scientist is only required for the fools who don't understand and need conclusive evidence.
Some people are too stupid to understand otherwise.
Some people will still never understand,
Until the bomb lands on top of their heads.
Even then some people will still protest ......
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the Fet
climber
Tu-Tok-A-Nu-La
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May 17, 2013 - 12:12pm PT
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Please do not detract the relevance of the peer reviewed study that clearly indicates a totally different picture than that of Mann's.
Yes a study from a conservative 'think' tank is very relevant and can be trusted. LOL.
You know you are doing the bidding of people like the Koch brothers at the expense of everyone else, right? I hope you are getting paid, not just suckered.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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May 17, 2013 - 12:33pm PT
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Knott, you're trolling denier sites for what you think are science talking points, and you can keep doing that forever. How about exerting effort to read and think things out for yourself before you copy and paste? You failed twice now.
The reconstruction of summer temperatures in southern South American throws no kind of "big time curve ball" into Mann's studies or the many others that concluded recent global or northern hemisphere temperatures are anomalous. And the authors of the study you quoted describe their own work as a contribution that fills in missing details, not a refutation of earlier work. They explicitly note the connection to Mann's studies (emphasis added):
Until recently, the rather low number and uneven spatial distribution of temporally-highly-resolved proxies from the Southern Hemisphere (SH) did not allow reliable continental scale reconstructions to be developed at interannual to interdecadal time scales (Jansen et al. 2007; Mann and Jones 2003). Consequently, the few existing multi-proxy temperature reconstructions from the SH focus on the hemispheric mean (Jones et al. 1998; Mann and Jones 2003; Mann et al. 2008) and depend upon on a small number of SH proxies (see e.g., Ljungqvist 2009 and references therein). Accordingly, these reconstructions do not provide reliable representations of the spatial patterns, trends and amplitudes of regional to continental scale SH climate. However, reconstructions of high spatial and temporal resolution are important, because they illuminate key climatic features, such as regionally very hot/cool seasonal conditions that may be masked in a hemispheric reconstruction.
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-010-0793-3
For a continental-scale (not just southern, not just summertime) South America temperature reconstruction, the most recent I know of is PAGES 2k. And they conclude that "The twentieth century ranked as the warmest or nearly the warmest century in all regions except Antarctica."
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v6/n5/full/ngeo1797.html
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blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
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May 17, 2013 - 01:01pm PT
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Blah Blah I have seen many dramatic changes in terms of the weather in my short life for example:
Record rainfall and flooding in the last ten years in the upper midwest
Record drought, fires, and floods in the U.S., Asia, Australia
[etc. etc.]
All of these events are off the top of my head and have occured in the last ten years--I would have to search the internet for the dates...post up if you think that is worth my time...
OK I think I see the source of disagreement--I thought you were talking about your own personally observed experiences, not news accounts from around the world.
Even from your understanding, I think you're wrong--without doing some sort of sophisticated statistical analysis, how would you know whether any particular number of broken records represents a change from the past?
You may be seeing a "pattern" that doesn't exist. In fact there is a pattern of warming (I think--I don't know what to make of recent claims that GW stopped a decade or so ago), but we know that from statistics, not personal experience.
But I agree it's a very different question if we're talking about news accounts from around the world or personal observations.
Chiloe--I can believe that arctic sea ice guys (and maybe some others) have had significant personal observations; my comment was really directed to the 99% of "typical" Americans who live in a house and spends a lot of time in buildings that are climate controlled, buys food from grocery and restaurants, and is generally pretty insulated from the natural world. I believe MountainLion is such a person based on his posts--I could be mistaken and he's an Eskimo or something.
edit--Bruce, you should work on it and add it to Wikipedia under "Bruce's Law" or something if you think it's a good one. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_eponymous_laws
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mountainlion
Trad climber
California
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May 17, 2013 - 01:32pm PT
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blah blah, I think if you look at my posts you would have known that in the last year I have lived/climbed in a desert (southern california) and a tropical island (Cebu, Philippines). While I did grow up in the midwest (Kansas City).
I have a Bachelors Degree from the University of Kansas with an emphasis on science and have taken at least a few courses in almost every scientific discipline. I just love science.
While I do read about different news accounts from around the globe regarding extreme weather events I have observed several from personal experience. For example:
Exteme Flooding of the Missour River due to excessive rainfall almost reached my families home in Liberty --291 highway was impassable for at least a month--around 1993
Working a summer internship in Georgia (Kairo) 1994 I cold called an area that had experienced extreme flooding--you could see the flood damage on the homes around 5 feet high.
Working in a State Farm Insurance call center I fielded calls in 1997 for southern california rainfall that resulted in landslides enough for the insurance company to call it a "Catastrophe" --the call center only handled catastophe claims--
My mother's neighborhood was destroyed due to tornadoes--even though I grew up in tornado alley we have seen more tornadoes in the last decade than most of my life combined.
Watching/Reading about record breaking weather events may not be first hand observations of extreme weather events but I have been in contact with people who have experienced those events first hand--for example "the lisa" here on ST and this past years New York Hurricane "Sandy" as well as friends who lived in New Orleans prior to Hurricane Katrina
I question whether you are willing to admit first hand observations that you have witnessed in regards to climate change in your lifetime or whether you deny the events based on ideology.
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blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
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May 17, 2013 - 01:53pm PT
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I question whether you are willing to admit first hand observations that you have witnessed in regards to climate change in your lifetime or whether you deny the events based on ideology. I have no particular "ideology" here (well I suppose I do in the sense we all have some kind of worldview, but my general "ideology" both accepts the scientific method and also the tendency of individual humans to act in ways that personally benefit them.)
I question the significance of your personal experience with what you list as "extreme" (compared to what?) weather events--I grew up in the midwest in the early 80s and my recollection is that the various rivers (I lived near the Illinois) would flood regularly and cause massive damage. Why would I consider that the floods mean anything has changed? They were the status quo then and now as far as I know--big midwestern floods have "always" (at least in my lifetime and the recent past) been a fact of life, and I don't think it's at all obvious from personal experience whether they're getting more or less severe.
But I will throw out one personal observation: I moved to the Colorado Front Range a little over 20 years ago and have been a regular visitor to the local ski areas. I can easily accept that the skier conditions have worsened based on my experiences--I wonder whether major ski areas would have been built where they were if the snow was as sporadic when they were built as it seems to be now. I kind of think places like Summit County "used" be generally deeply snowpacked in the winter; now it's hit or miss as to whether there will be much snow on the ground on any given winter day.
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mountainlion
Trad climber
California
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May 17, 2013 - 02:46pm PT
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blah blah, I have done a little research about the Missouri River here is a link about flood history...I also did some research about how the Missouri River was formed but didn't find it really pertinent if you google search you will find it. Here is the link for flood history of the Missouri River http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mbrfc/?n=flood
I will also search for other catastophic flood events throughout the U.S. for example I know the North/South Dakota's experienced record flooding in the last 10 years as well as a few other areas in the U.S. are all these extreme flooding events occuring in the last 20 years a coincidence or a sign of climate change?
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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May 17, 2013 - 02:47pm PT
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I kind of think places like Summit County "used" be generally deeply snowpacked in the winter; now it's hit or miss as to whether there will be much snow on the ground on any given winter day.
Thing is, that is happening in many skiing ranges around the world, from Japan and Australia (yes) to Austria, Italy, eastern Canada, and the northeastern US. Skiers, ski businesses, insurers, condo owner and pizza joints have all noticed, even more so when they talk to each other, which they do.
And that's hardly a start. On a climbing blog, you've heard about the alpine ice climbs?
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mountainlion
Trad climber
California
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May 17, 2013 - 05:24pm PT
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Blah Blah here is a list of floods from pre 1900 til 2011. It is broken into 3 sections pre 1900, 1901-2000, 2001-2011 the link I copied is the section 1901-2000. I looked at all three sections and read the short details contained at the end of the lists for each event (each flood has a short description including amount of rainfall, what contributed to the flood, damage from the flood, etc. It is amazing how many of the flood events from 1990-2011 were record breaking events and there have been several floods that were considered 500 year flood events and 1000 year flood events in the last 23 years.
I will be looking up Tornado storm data next.
All of this information is readily available on google, wikipedia, or other sites.
here is the link
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floods_in_the_United_States:_1901-2000
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mountainlion
Trad climber
California
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May 17, 2013 - 06:34pm PT
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Blah Blah here is a link to a site devoted to tornado data. The link I'm listing illustrates the month with the most tornadoes on record and the year it occurred to make a "perfect year of tornadoes". It is alarming that only one month is listed prior to 1990 and that month is in the year 1976 (all of the other months are after 1990 and most are in the 2000-2012 years).
Next up for me to research will be drought records...
here is the link for tornado data:
http://www.ustornadoes.com/2013/03/11/the-perfect-tornado-year/
Edt: I continued to do some research and found this link that also provides some evidence and commentary about data sets and data set analysis explaining why there are more tornadoes being documented now than in the past (this is an example of those of us who believe we can/need to do something about the climate actually giving the deniers a bone by stating why the numbers can be skewed).
http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?28890-U-S-Tornado-Statistics-and-Data-Set-Analysis
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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May 17, 2013 - 06:38pm PT
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It is miserable here in Albuquerque, dry as lizard lips.
New Mexico drought tops worst list
ALBUQUERQUE (KRQE) - The drought in New Mexico is not just bad, it's now the worst in the country.
The Land of Enchantment rose to the top of the list as the most drought-stricken state in the U.S.
The Albuquerque Journal reports the latest federal drought monitor shows much of the Rio Grande Valley is in the "exceptional drought" category, which is the worst category in terms of monitoring the drought condition.
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