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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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May 10, 2013 - 08:23pm PT
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I do not have any answers,i agree with the consensus.
Do you believe in democracy?
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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May 11, 2013 - 09:47am PT
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Writing about that numerical milestone, 400ppm, that we reached just this week (for the first time in several million years), Bad Astronomer Phil Plait again tells in simple terms why it matters.
It may be arbitrary, but it is still a stark reminder of many things, none of them good:
* CO2 levels are rising, and they’re rising far faster than any time in human history (and at least for the past 11,000 years).
* CO2 is for real and for sure tied to rising heat content of the Earth. For quite some time that heat has been going into the air, and we’ve seen rising temperatures around the world. At the moment, a lot of that heat is going into warming the oceans, but climatologists expect to see air temperatures increasing rapidly again soon.
* This has direct impacts, like increased temperatures in the air and water, melting ice, and more severe weather. It also has indirect impacts, like fluctuating weather patterns. This makes it difficult to tag any freak storm to climate change, but it does mean that over time, we’ll see more and more. Worse droughts and floods, more forest fires, increased ocean acidification, and more are all expected due to increased carbon dioxide in the air.
* All this is happening on a timescale hugely accelerated over natural cycles. The Earth tends to changes over millions of years; we’re doing this to it in just a century. Without time to adapt, this will have a profound impact on life around the globe.
The simple truth is this: More carbon dioxide is in the air than there has been for millions of years. The world is warming up, and it’s due to human influence. If we do nothing it’ll continue to rise, and even if we get our act together it’ll get worse before it gets better.
More at http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2013/05/11/atmospheric_carbon_dioxide_levels_at_all_time_high_for_past_several_million.html
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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May 12, 2013 - 08:52pm PT
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There you go again Ed, participating in the coordinated "climate consensus machine-division of destruction of contrary opinion, evidence, and the scientists that voice them".
The CAGW crowd has lost this battle.Every day more prominent scientists are coming out against this malicious consensus machine. The public by and large sees the CAGW crowd as buffoons and make all manner of jokes about their efforts to misinform.
For those who care google the following articles:
Consensus and controversy- Sintef
The perils of confirmation bias-Matt Ridley
A case against precipitous climate action-Richard Lindzen
Ed or Chiloe if you have the time read the paper-Geocarb III: A Revised Model Of Atmospheric CO2 Over Phanerozoic Time Berner and Kothvala American Journal Of Science 2001. What do you guys think this paper says to the average layman reading it?
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McHale's Navy
Trad climber
Panorama City, California & living in Seattle
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May 12, 2013 - 08:57pm PT
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Every day more prominent scientists are coming out against this malicious consensus machine.
Give us some names of some prominent 'climate' scientists that have jumped ship 'recently'.
The public by and large sees the CAGW crowd as buffoons and make all manner of jokes about their efforts to misinform.
Is this you joking around again? You admitted that your posts were all in good humor not too many posts ago. The AGW crowd here knows a buffoon when they see one.
CAGW is an acronym invented by climate science deniers
The public by and large sees the CAGW crowd as buffoons and make all manner of jokes about their efforts to misinform.
Somebody that is actually informed does not have to debate in such an insulting and childish manner.
Since the acronym CAGW was created by deniers, the quote is not very sympathetic to your agenda Rick.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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May 12, 2013 - 09:54pm PT
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.Just got off the phone with my handler from the Cato Institute-hehehe.
What that paper highlights to me is the high degree of uncertainty in the data used for paleoclimate reconstruction.It also brings to light the gross negligence in sampling error. Come on, dwarf birch and desert.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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May 12, 2013 - 10:37pm PT
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Yes, many tens of billions of dollars wasted adressing those and other problems with the science in a vain attempt to establish a consensus.
It's time for a strategic retreat for the CAGW group, after all the last men standing get the credit, or blame, and who among you want that.
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bobinc
Trad climber
Portland, Or
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May 12, 2013 - 11:38pm PT
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So far Rick Sumner appears to be a politer version of The Chief. But when he'a asked a serious question, he uses the ''I was just kidding" rope-a-dope...
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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May 12, 2013 - 11:48pm PT
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TENS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS.edit:MANY
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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May 13, 2013 - 10:57pm PT
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Thankyou Bruce, i take your last post as a compliment.Your also somewhat civil at times.
I know nothing of The Chief, but i can tell you this-a more stubborn man than me you will not meet. Also i'm going to win this little debate in the end and it won't be through a discussion of "your science", though i am increasing my understanding of it all the time.I define victory as the conversion of just one individual.
Nothing new on scientific deconstruction front, but Alaska continues its historic, very late ascent out of winter. Snow and rain showers predicted the next two days with nightime lows below freezing point. The ice is still not off the lakes and the leaves have yet to unfurl.This extreme persistance of winter is a common phenomenon this year in most parts of the higher latitudes.
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slayton
Trad climber
Here and There
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May 13, 2013 - 11:18pm PT
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The leaves are indeed unfurling right outside my door here in SE Alaska, and the ice really is actually melting on the lake about a half mile away. It's been a late, cold and wet spring for sure but that doesn't make Rick's argument any more true. It's hard to argue with someone who doesn't seem to understand the meaning of "overwhelming scientific consensus" or the process by which that comes about.
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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May 14, 2013 - 12:18am PT
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Also i'm going to win this little debate in the end and it won't be through a discussion of "your science", though i am increasing my understanding of it all the time.I define victory as the conversion of just one individual.
ok then, so if victory is convincing just one person, how ya doing Rick?
think you got any leaners going our way on this thread yet?
surely you can snag one person so you can claim victory.......
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mountainlion
Trad climber
California
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May 14, 2013 - 09:15am PT
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Rick you don't have to be the most stubborn man on the planet...when YOU get to DEFINE everything for yourself...getting to define victory in the debate and what/how/when/if the climate is changing must make life pretty simple for you...
As for the rest of us we have to live in the REAL world not some fantasy we have in our own heads...that means science and evidence collected by others...even if we are scientists like Ed...
I love science but am not on the same level as Ed, Base, etc but I can tell something is very different about the world and weather now than when I was growing up (I'm only 40) so it is not a big sample of time...
Hate to say it but some things that make our life more convenient MUST change...that is if you care about the planet after we are gone AND are looking at the EVIDENCE of the changing earth.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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May 14, 2013 - 01:07pm PT
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I doubt Rick Sumner is going to convert even one person by repeating talking points from denier blogs. Or by noting that right now it's cold someplace.
Even in Alaska, the folks of Newtok, which could be underwater by 2017, perhaps take climate change more seriously. That's one of several dozen Alaska communities facing near-term threats from erosion accelerated by climate change (such as permafrost failure, increased river flow, and decreased sea-ice protection of shorelines in fall).
But what's the big picture? For that we need science, not anecdotes. For example, new research in Nature last month (emphasis added):
Recent temperature extremes at high northern latitudes unprecedented in the past 600 years
Tingley & Huybers
Recently observed extreme temperatures at high northern latitudes1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 are rare by definition, making the longer time span afforded by climate proxies important for assessing how the frequency of such extremes may be changing. Previous reconstructions of past temperature variability have demonstrated that recent warmth is anomalous relative to preceding centuries2, 8, 9 or millennia10, but extreme events can be more thoroughly evaluated using a spatially resolved approach that provides an ensemble of possible temperature histories11, 12. Here, using a hierarchical Bayesian analysis13, 14 of instrumental, tree-ring, ice-core and lake-sediment records, we show that the magnitude and frequency of recent warm temperature extremes at high northern latitudes are unprecedented in the past 600 years. The summers of 2005, 2007, 2010 and 2011 were warmer than those of all prior years back to 1400 (probability P > 0.95), in terms of the spatial average. The summer of 2010 was the warmest in the previous 600 years in western Russia (P > 0.99) and probably the warmest in western Greenland and the Canadian Arctic as well (P > 0.90). These and other recent extremes greatly exceed those expected from a stationary climate, but can be understood as resulting from constant space–time variability about an increased mean temperature.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v496/n7444/full/nature11969.html
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blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
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May 14, 2013 - 01:56pm PT
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I love science but am not on the same level as Ed, Base, etc but I can tell something is very different about the world and weather now than when I was growing up (I'm only 40) so it is not a big sample of time... \
You're almost certainly wrong about that. Even if you fully believe the alarmists, the "changes" in the past few decades wouldn't be something that is noticeable in your normal life (as compared to statistical analysis), since an average change of a degree or 2 is insignificant compared to general variations in weather. And remember there hasn't been any significant change in the past 10 years or so.
The knucklehead who posts on this thread who seems to be fascinated by psychology of the "deniers" can weigh in why people think they're experiencing "global warming" first hand when they aren't.
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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May 14, 2013 - 02:01pm PT
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Also i'm going to win this little debate in the end and it won't be through a discussion of "your science", though i am increasing my understanding of it all the time.I define victory as the conversion of just one individual.
and if I can't "convert" one individual then I will turn everyone to stone and burn your village
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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May 14, 2013 - 02:13pm PT
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You're almost certainly wrong about that.
When you look up Dunning-Kruger effect on Wikipedia, there's a picture of blahblah's smiling face. Or should be. So certain, based on so little knowledge.
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abrams
Sport climber
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May 14, 2013 - 02:35pm PT
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The public perception of GW has evolved from concern to now seeing silly egg head scientists grubbing for funding over false pretenses.
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mountainlion
Trad climber
California
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May 14, 2013 - 02:52pm PT
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For Rick and all the other deniers...
This past year I have had the pleasure of meeting 2 water engineers (my description) one in Balboa Island Ca (next to Newport Beach). He and I had a conversation about the Sea Wall surrounding the properties on the island that had already been raised once since the homes were built (easy to see the old and new concrete layers).
He was actually there to attend the homeowners association meeting and discuss elevating the sea wall further...considering the value of the homes and area it is safe to say a large percentage of the homeowners are climate change deniers. He said the homeowners were in a tough spot the wall had to be raised eventually or the homes would eventually be flooded. He didn't say how many years it would take. He also said the water level was measured in the marina at Balboa Bay/Newport Harbor (very close to the homes). The water level could be PROVEN to be rising based on the measurements in the harbor.
The second water engineer I met was in the Philippines helping to modernize their water systems. He was also a rock climber, we had many conversations about climate change and I specifically asked him about sea levels rising. He said it was common knowledge in his industry that the sea level was rising in different proportions in different parts of the world.
Why would either of these people lie to me when I have no connection other than holding a conversation with them?
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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May 14, 2013 - 02:59pm PT
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The public perception of GW has evolved from concern to now seeing silly egg head scientists grubbing for funding over false pretenses.
No, it has not. This is well studied too.
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