Death on El Cap (Freeblast) this morning?

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JLP

Social climber

The internet

Aug 24, 2018 - 08:04pm PT

With the new information - a new highest probability theory - for me in my head at least.

Jason didn't meet Tim on the ledge and didn't take Kevin's rope - possible, but odd and no logistical reason to. Tim didn't down-climb from the #2 either because if so there would be no reason to detach from Kevin's rope. I have to toss these 2 out.

Therefore, Tim takes Kevin's rope, as usual, and leaves it behind at the #2 Camalot - to climb higher.

From there 2 possible reasons, with any third possibility far less likely:

1) To get to a higher stance to wait for Kevin - because his pack is f'n heavy and he's wearing approach shoes on some of the more difficult 5.7ish terrain on the pitch

2) More likely - he needs to climb higher to clear a stuck rope - possibly at the block 40 feet above the #2 - mentioned in the report - where they found rope material.

Then - that's all I got because all things possible thereafter - that actually precipitated the fall - seem equally likely and generally too complicated to support with what little is known.

Trump

climber

Aug 24, 2018 - 08:10pm PT

Yea, complacency prolly factors in there somewhere for all of us. What’s the likelihood that a human would be complacent? If you’ve got infinite resources of energy and attention, just be hyper vigilant 24/7. Me, I find that I need my REM, and sometimes even my attention wavers. Too bad we’re humans that way. Or not. Best to you all.

aspendougy

Trad climber

Los Angeles, CA

Aug 24, 2018 - 10:22pm PT

Hans Florine, Quinn Brett, and these two all had a lot in common; long record of success on El Cap on a variety of routes, over a period of years. Then the unexpected happens. Hard to pin it on any one thing.

Hoser

climber

Vancouver,Rome

Aug 24, 2018 - 11:26pm PT

Is there a final report yet?

Rattlesnake Arch

Social climber

Home is where we park it

Aug 25, 2018 - 05:46am PT

No evidence suggesting why Jason's left side gear loops were broken?

Trump

climber

Aug 25, 2018 - 08:50am PT

A similar event

What exactly is a similar event? What exactly are the values of all the variables that allow us to say that a different event is a “similar” event, and will allow us to prospectively compute an objective non-informationally biased “likelihood” of this event happening? Was this event truly a random event in the universe?

If you’ve solved the reference class problem, I’ll be extremely impressed. But if you haven’t, all we have is beliefs biased by the information that we’re aware of, and ignorant of the things we’re not.

Sorry, but I think we’re going to need to continue to act regardless of our ignorance. And sometimes, not facing up to our ignorance, either consciously or unconsciously, is the best option we’ve got, because we’ve got to get ourselves to act anyway.

And sometimes we get it wrong. My condolences when getting it wrong. But for me, I think being willing to risk getting it wrong (in the myriad ways that we get ourselves to do that) is something that’s right about us, not something that’s wrong about us.

Best to you.

Jon Beck

Trad climber

Oceanside

Aug 25, 2018 - 09:13am PT

No evidence suggesting why Jason's left side gear loops were broken?

Since loose gear was found around the body I assumed the gear was broken loose from the gear loops on impact

le_bruce

climber

Oakland, CA

Aug 25, 2018 - 02:58pm PT

2) More likely - he needs to climb higher to clear a stuck rope - possibly at the block 40 feet above the #2 - mentioned in the report - where they found rope material.

Upon reaching the anchor atop the Half Dollar, Prince found that his rope had been fixed to two bolts. The remainder of his rope was extended approximately another 50-60 feet, where it had been terminated at a #2 Camalot with a locking carabiner in the locked position. The location of the Camalot was not at a significant ledge, and was judged by investigators to be a temporary placement. According to Prince, this had not been part of the plan; at every other belay, Klein had stayed connected to Prince’s rope. Leaving Prince’s rope at the Camalot suggests that possibly Klein needed to move higher on the wall

It was determined by investigators that a 60 meter rope would reach the bolted anchor atop Mammoth Terraces from the location of the #2 Camalot

The rope was cleanly severed within a foot of Klein’s harness. The investigation found boulders about 40 feet directly below the #2 Camalot, with evidence of sheath and core rope material. Approximately 40 feet above the #2 Camalot, a block was found with rope fibers on two sides indicating the fall may have been momentarily arrested at this location.

Does this indicate Jason was likely at or nearly at the Mammoth anchor?

The tied off line on the #2 is what makes this hard for me to understand. That couldn't have been part of the game plan. Something unexpected came up - stuck rope? Jason out of rope above and not able to wait for Kevin to clear the HD and until at the anchor? - that led Tim to place that cam + temporarily tie off Kevin's line with a locker.

Not sure why it matters. RIP fallen brothers.

JLP

Social climber

The internet

Aug 25, 2018 - 04:29pm PT

Does this indicate Jason was likely at or nearly at the Mammoth anchor?

Maybe - but it's irrelevant in the case of a stuck rope - someone would need to clear the rope either way. First thing a guy's going to do is finesse, then shake, then eventually tug the fuk out of it from every angle he can manage before resigning to climbing to it.

Interesting point though weakening my Tim looking for a rest stance theory. If that were the case, then Jason almost certainly would have been at an anchor.

Stuck rope seems to be the most likely scenario that fits what's known, then something went wrong clearing it.