Discussion Topic |
|
This thread has been locked |
jstan
climber
|
|
|
Feb 12, 2009 - 05:33pm PT
|
JE
If you ever get the chance to climb with Kerwin, don't pass up the chance. I think the two of you would have some great conversations.
When I retired I calculated the present value of my SS contributions using a 4% discount rate I came up very close to my benefits assuming I live to the late eighties, a tad longer than 50% mortality. If you believe in diversification it makes sense to have a fraction of your assets in a low risk investment. Until George came along that was the role I assigned SS. The fund is managed very efficiently(3% overhead annually). The main problem, I think, is Congress's habit of adding things like disability coverage and extending coverage without at the same increasing the contributions we have to make. I came to that conclusion as I watched events over the past forty or fifty years. I am hoping Congress can now have a reasoned discussion to deal with the population leverage, exacerbated as it is by the US's upcoming decline in earning and living standards; all fueled by our transition from a high technology society to a debtor nation.
The 6.2% contribution made on my behalf by employers is, as far as I am concerned, a contribution I think should be made for the benefit of society as a whole.
I am a poor timer on stocks( like almost everyone else) so I looked at the real rate of growth( after inflation) in the DOW index from 1935 to 2003 and found the annual rate of appreciation was 2.0%. The 10% and 15% numbers you hear bandied about make assumptions carefully left unspecified IMO.
|
|
JEleazarian
Trad climber
Fresno CA
|
|
|
Feb 12, 2009 - 05:35pm PT
|
Thanks, John
|
|
tolman_paul
Trad climber
Anchorage, AK
|
|
|
Feb 12, 2009 - 05:41pm PT
|
Sorry to hear about folks loosing their jobs, and business owners looking at loosing their companies.
We just got a company announcement that things will be slowing down this year (as if we hadn't noticed with no substantial projects getting kicked off and folks running out of billable work) also mentioned was no raises, which I'm perfectly fine with. I've talked to folks from other companies in the same field and they are also running thin.
|
|
Indianclimber
Trad climber
Lost Wages
|
|
|
Feb 12, 2009 - 06:58pm PT
|
Dropline,we have had the same problem,at this point every savings count,can you cut back on vehicles,sell equipment you don't really need,renegotiate with the landlord or move to a smaller building
as well as labor savings,maybe renegotiate your fixed equipment payments or lengthen the contracts??
|
|
Dr.Sprock
Boulder climber
Sprocketville
|
|
|
Feb 12, 2009 - 08:33pm PT
|
Todays Report:
Retail Sales: Up
Unemployment:Down (rate that is, still 5-600,000)
Watch out for the Second Derivative trick with these politicians.
They might say someting like, "the rate of inflation is down this week....".
Well, inflation is still getting worse, it is just the rate of which it is getting worse is slowing.
Same thing with un enjoyment.
Less people than last week, but stll a lot of people, instead of a lot of jobs.
No problem.
Just use your COBRA plan for health care.
Only 900 a month.
Plenty left for rent and food after that, right?
|
|
TradIsGood
Chalkless climber
the Gunks end of the country
|
|
|
Feb 12, 2009 - 09:23pm PT
|
jstan,
SS is a plan invented by a "cousin" of Madoff.
A good plan until "Limits to Growth" came along!
chuckle
|
|
salad
climber
Escondido
|
|
|
Feb 12, 2009 - 09:58pm PT
|
"No problem.
Just use your COBRA plan for health care.
Only 900 a month.
Plenty left for rent and food after that, right? "
mine's 1100....
|
|
Jeremy Handren
climber
NV
|
|
|
Feb 12, 2009 - 11:16pm PT
|
Unfortunately, there is really no painless way out of our current economic situation.
As a society we have to become more productive, and that requires investment and time.
Our political and economic system has to find ways to recognize and reward productivity. And that means real productivity, processes that actually add value.
In many ways I think the primary result of three decades of free market fundamentalism has been to point us in the direction of becoming a nation of used car salesman. Where we become masters of the process of shuffling value around and skimming a percentage, as opposed to actually adding to the value.
The investment banks provide a good example. They were able to skim enormous value from the system while completely failing in their primary purpose ...risk management.
My worry with the current stimulus package is that it seems to be focused on increasing consumption, basically trying to reflate the bubble. To me the only sensible use of this money is a huge infrastructure and energy buildout. In other words, invest in a way that offers hope of increasing future productivity.
|
|
Charlie D.
Trad climber
Western Slope, Tahoe Sierra
|
|
|
Feb 12, 2009 - 11:51pm PT
|
Jeremy, You speak the truth, hopefully this will refocus us on what truly brings value in economic terms and in the meantime allows us to appreciate that real worth is in things that cannot be bought.
|
|
stevep
Boulder climber
Salt Lake, UT
|
|
|
Feb 13, 2009 - 12:03am PT
|
Social Security is a good thing. However, we may need to consider raising the age, and I'd certainly be in favor of means testing.
|
|
cragnshag
Social climber
san joser
|
|
|
Feb 13, 2009 - 12:29am PT
|
I work in the management side of heavy construction. About a third of our drafting/ engineering folks have been layed off. The laborers will be next as they finish existing projects.
The only other climber at my work is gone in 4 weeks.
The remaining lucky souls will soon see a 10% pay cut (no furlogh, no two days off. Same work, less pay). This pay cut will be across the board.
The projects I manage are finishing up, so I will be next on the chopping block unless some new work comes up soon.
That was the doom and gloom portion of this post.
On the bright side, not working- or working less will have many advantages:
1. I'll get to spend more time with my lovely wife.
2. I'll have time to road trip to visit friends and family.
3. I'll finally have time to read all those great books at my local library.
4. I will be able to drive to places I've only seen in pictures like Devils Tower, Red River Gorge, Bugaboos, RMNP, etc.
Now, more than ever we need to help our friends and come together while we ride out this storm. Nothing out there is so bad when you have your friends at your side. Perhaps we will all emerge the better for the struggle.
Maybe when the economy eventually turns around, we won't all go out and work ourselves into the ground just to buy crap we don't need. Maybe our priorities will change for a generation.
|
|
Wonder
climber
WA
|
|
|
Feb 13, 2009 - 01:46am PT
|
It will get worse. I just got of the phone to my friend in SF. He hasn't worked in staging since dec.
He also said that soon 300,000 low level criminals will be let out of prison soon. No money. Your broke right. Well good luck and good night.
|
|
JEleazarian
Trad climber
Fresno CA
|
|
|
Feb 13, 2009 - 01:54am PT
|
Jeremy,
While I disagree on your assessment of the effects of "free market fundamentalism," I completely agree with your assessment of the stimulus package. I see inflation as the likely result. Unanticipated inflation penalizes savers and investors, and rewards those who borrow to consume.
We have huge infrastructure needs in the public sector. Fix those first. Fund some basic research. That's a risk the market can't take (because of externalities, lest you wonder). Invest in acquiring knowledge. All of THAT would be a real stimulus, and one this "free market fundamentalist" supports.
John
|
|
Dr.Sprock
Boulder climber
Sprocketville
|
|
|
Feb 13, 2009 - 02:24am PT
|
It's hard to enjoy your time off if you are worried about important things in life, like your job.
And if you get dinged up climbing without medical. your really screwed.
And your income is less.
If you are in a house and have gold bricks for a fire place, then hop in the RV and hit the road.
Anybody read Blue Highways by William Least Heat Moon?
", which spent 34 weeks on the New York Times bestseller list in 1982-83, is a chronicle of a three-month-long road trip that Heat-Moon took throughout the United States in 1978 after losing his teaching job and being left by his first wife. He traveled 13,000 miles, as much as possible on secondary roads (often drawn on maps in blue, especially in the old-style Rand McNally road atlas) and tried to avoid cities. Living out of the back of his van "Ghost Dancing", he visited small towns such as Nameless, Tennessee; Hachita, New Mexico; and Bagley, Minnesota to find places in America untouched by fast food chains and interstate highways. The book chronicles the people he talked to in roadside cafés as well as his personal soul-searching.
|
|
Wonder
climber
WA
|
|
|
Feb 13, 2009 - 02:43am PT
|
Yeah WTF everyone's standing on the edge of the cliff and arguing about who's going first.
After you. no no Please after you
|
|
Dick_Lugar
Trad climber
Indiana (the other Mideast)
|
|
|
Feb 13, 2009 - 10:52am PT
|
Anybody starting a climbers communal? It may come to that...
|
|
happiegrrrl
Trad climber
New York, NY
|
|
|
Feb 13, 2009 - 11:22am PT
|
I'd join the climbers commune!
I'm lucky in that my apt is very inexpensive compared to the market rates. If I need to, I can share it. It's a studio, and sharing sucks, but to do so would be a pretty good savings for me, and a godsend for someone else in a time of need.
|
|
Dick_Lugar
Trad climber
Indiana (the other Mideast)
|
|
|
Feb 13, 2009 - 12:05pm PT
|
Yeah Happie, just think if we could get all the STr's into one commune. Then we could talk to each other directly. Think of the time we'd all save from having to post here all the time. We could redirect our time and energy into the communal farm and communal rock climbing store and manufacturing gear shop. I'm in!
|
|
mrtropy
Trad climber
Nor Cal
|
|
|
Feb 13, 2009 - 01:06pm PT
|
In my school district we are losing about 20% of staff. Nearly 400 teachers! Our school district is the largest employer in the town. Many nearby districts are also cutting staff. I feel for any trying to get a teaching job now.
365 teachers
20 from the psychologist, counselor, program specialist unit
14.5 from administration
Plus almost 100 classified staff- custodians, bus drivers,......
My renter has lost his job so I cut his rent to give then a break and with many empty houses is the area if we lose him we my have to sell our old home we use as a rental. That was to be my kids college fund. My daughters close friend in school has to move to Long Beach because her father's office was cut. My job, as along time teacher, is safe but all around me people are hurting. I would hate to be a teacher looking for a job now with so many districts laying off so many teachers.
Good Luck out there.
|
|
Nefarius
Big Wall climber
Fresno
|
|
|
Feb 13, 2009 - 01:26pm PT
|
It's hitting everywhere. My job is looking like it's about to be outsourced. Of course, they're trying to be sly about it, but I'm fairly certain at this point. Real bummer. Not a lot of work out there right now for those who get dumped. I may be forced back to dirtbag-dom. Maybe this is the season for NIAD? Sounds like I may have plenty of time to train, if I can afford to fuel the muscles!
|
|
|
SuperTopo on the Web
|
Let us know!