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mtwoodsonguide
Big Wall climber
San Diego
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Dec 27, 2008 - 02:05pm PT
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"Think home values will increase anytime soon? One year, two years?"
To recover to what you payed for it? Try 10,12 (15 or 20 once you adjust for inflation)
and the big question is inflation. That is how we are going to get out of this, pay off this debt and make what you idiots payed for your houses what they are worth. Make the dollar weaker, what it can buy less. Wages will hopefully, hopefully, go up proportionally.
Which really sucks if you did the responsible thing and saved your money, you got screwed the worst.
the value of a home must be compared to wages and the cost of renting. Never by crooks, I mean, real estate agents. Used to be different, real estate agents 20 years ago understood it wasn't the same as selling used cars.
Your especially screwed in Mammoth cause everyone who lives in LA will give up there place in Mammoth before their home close close to their job.
We are 1 year (yeah, official, Dec 2007, almost a year of denial) into a deep recession another 3,4,or5 to go. Home prices are dropping slower then the speculators rose them.
This is being compared to "the lost generation" in Japan.
Just be glad your not 10 years older, a lot of baby boomers, who have worked 40 hours a weeks since the 60's are unable to retire, and have to compete with younger men like yourself for a job.
For those of you who thought it was a bit much to pay for a house but didn't want to miss the boat, you must feel like you got caught with a bad card at the end of a card game, rummy or something.
Hey Bachar wasn't Reardon's wife a salesperson, manager, executive? at Countrywide.
oh, the irony.
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bachar
Gym climber
Mammoth Lakes, CA
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Topic Author's Reply - Dec 27, 2008 - 02:48pm PT
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Uh-oh.....
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xtrmecat
Trad climber
Kalispell, Montanagonia
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Dec 27, 2008 - 02:57pm PT
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Man, oh man, what a load of ----! I lost my job of 17 years, at the start of last quarter. Yes it is a direct result of the economy. I lost my ass on my retirement and am getting penalized by Uncle Sam's collection agency to boot. I on the other hand, already own a chainsaw, and have gas in the pickup I own, but cannot afford to drive. I just need to siphon it out. Does this seem like a reasonable solution to my problems? Come on really. I grossed less every month than almost everyone here's mortgage payments are. Just the way the economy is here. I took what few dollars I could and payed my obligations out as far as it would take me. Then I set out into the world of looking for work, along with the other 10% of the newly unemployed workforce here. I don't whine that it is tough, I just get up at 12:30 at night and work until 7:30 to 8:00 in the afternoon, when someone asks(for real) and collect the unemployment checks for the weeks that I cannot get work. The whole months unemployment is what some of you pay for your cars every month. My wife makes the prevailing wage here that is equivelant to a entry level wage at a fast food resteraunt in California. We do what we can and are damn happy to have made it the last three months and had enough left over to celebrate Christmas with those we love.
That is good enough. I will probably go out of town to work and have to make sacrifices, to make it but nowhere here did I ever want to lay down and feel sorry for the position I ended up in. I am not a victim here, just a normal person caught up in life. I have no vacation or benefits of any kind so I cannot continue climbing in the fashion that I am used to. But I will not quit doing this, or backcountry skiing, or backpacking, or white water rafting, or hunting, or photographing many very unique places I seem to visit. I just will do it on a dirtbag style and scale.
I never once thought of letting a loan lapse in reposession, or damage any collateral. Noone stuck a gun to my head when I made the decision to purchase the toys I cannot afford to use. Why the hell would I want to give up? I never give up on a climb until it is apparent that I may not come back unless I turn around now. Why would the other aspects of my life be different. Maybe some peoples morals and conviction are less than I thought. "Dedication" is only a word used in the magazine and newspaper articles to spice up the hero?
When this is over I am hoping to still be alive. That is all. I will go out being able to look the world in the eye knowing I did my level best. If I end up with just the clothes on my back, again, then I am OK with that. I think the wife secretely wants to end up a little better off than that though.
Anyone want some snowmobiles, Harley touring bike, F-250, yard tools, oudoor book collection, spare snap-on tools and boxes cheap. I once thought these things were needed in my life, and now realize they are just money sitting there that I can never recover, because noone here has the money to buy these things. I will part with them for pennies on the dollar.
Quit yer whining and buck up. It cannot be harder than 5.9D, maybe sustained and manky, but satisfying in the end.
Bob
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John Moosie
climber
Beautiful California
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Dec 27, 2008 - 03:05pm PT
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Bob, I don't see either John or Dwain whining. They are trying to figure a way out of a jam and are asking for help with figuring it out. What would you do if you were injured?
John makes a valid point about mortgaged companies having less motivation to work with you because the government has bailed them out so they won't be hurt by someone defaulting on their loan. This takes away their motivation to be flexible.
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sully
Trad climber
CA
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Dec 27, 2008 - 03:26pm PT
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John and other climbing gods on this site: Please write more books. You could pay those mortgages for sure. I just devoured Steve Roper's Camp 4 and bought Chouinard's Let my People... The point is, so many of us former climbers are stuck in the burbs raising kids and need to live vicariously through your adventures. Hence I lurk on this board. Better yet, write a screenplay about YNP adventures. Look at how well Into The Wild Did. Get Sean Penn to direct. In hard times we need funny, daring stories. You guys are full of them.
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Karl Baba
Trad climber
Yosemite, Ca
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Dec 27, 2008 - 08:37pm PT
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Fatty writes
"Personally, I think housing has about 10% more downside. "
I know less than Fatty but I think my supertopo prediction record is better. 10% down is a joke that's only funnier because we both live in california.
25% to 40% more down and more in some places. The ugliness of the economic hell that's setting is has shown itself fully yet, like someone who has got brain cancer might not feel really sick right away.
I'm an idiot but i suggest that anybody who thinks they won't or can't stick with their home should sell now while people still have hope and some economic incentives and low interest rates are around and rent until there is blood in the streets.
The only way the housing numbers can remotely stay even or get better is through inflation which means they will only seem to be better. Face it, when people can't pay for their homes, or don't want to because they are many, many thousands underwater, they will be forced to sell and prices will dive. Lenders still aren't giving away money and that will mean even cheaper housing.
Add job losses due to contracting economy and you have a perfect storm. Why deny it when there is still time to act?
I'd love to be wrong but tell me what I'm missing?
peace
karl
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Jaybro
Social climber
wuz real!
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Dec 27, 2008 - 09:07pm PT
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This is only going to get worse, what ever Obama and various conditions, change.
John, Dwain, Jim? There, but for the grace of a tight and fortunate family structure, go I. There is a downside to being an unemployed special ed teacher for 6 months =) That has changed recently, and as I get more and more on my feet, one important thing I will do is help other people, as I have been helped.
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Lynne Leichtfuss
Social climber
valley center, ca
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Dec 27, 2008 - 09:47pm PT
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Agree with Sully, Yo got the gifts, knowledge, humor and life stories. Write On.
As far as life. We have our lives. We are Alive. Let's Enjoy ! I may be homeless also but who gives a whatever ! Live life to the fullest, give what yo have to those in need...and what happens does. I am trusting God, if He lets me down I'll let ya know. : ))
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bachar
Gym climber
Mammoth Lakes, CA
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Topic Author's Reply - Dec 28, 2008 - 01:37pm PT
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Wanna buy a cool house in the Mammoth area anyone?
Lots of climbing, skiing, hiking nearby...hmmmmm
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Dec 29, 2008 - 04:00pm PT
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John
You mentioned you would sell if you could get out with 0% (not oweing money).
If you are lucky enough to be able to get a hold of your lender on the phone, you might see if they will agree to a short sell. You sell the property for less than it is worth and they agree to cancel all of your remaining debt. Saves them from having to evict you, saves them from having to sell it, and saves them from having you trash the place (a very real fear for them).
If you can't reach them on the phone, tell a real estate agent you are interested in a short sell and they might be able to track them down.
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Jaybro
Social climber
wuz real!
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Dec 29, 2008 - 04:17pm PT
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Wanna swap for one in Portola? For you, I'll throw in the wooden, 50' offwidth roof for free. They need sped teachers in Mammoth these days?
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couchmaster
climber
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Dec 29, 2008 - 07:03pm PT
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John: something I did when I got upside down in 1980 (remember 20% interest rates?) I bought a house and then decided to attend college. My house price simultaneously dropped 20% below what I paid for it. Many many people in similar circumstances were walking away from their obligations. However, I chose to rent it out and go live in a cheap flop house downtown.
The renters paid me $25 bucks less a month than the mortgage. I paid $100 a month for my downtown rental. (the home was a little 700 sq foot starter home with no basement- tiny! ) At a negative $125 a month total for both the home (-$25) and flophouse (-$100) , I worked and extra job and stayed current.
Eventually, like 7 years later, the value had approached what it was owed on it. I was able to keep it and my good credit intact. It's gratifying to have a credit score over 800.
So, consider renting it and live in a buddies basement. You have plenty of friends, now's the time to quietly ask for a favor: I'm sure many would be glad to help you out.
-or-
Rent part of your house, the basement or extra room to a friend.
Be creative and do some brainstorming: I once had a buddy drive his VW van over to my house and park it in the back of my driveway for almost a year. We ran a big assed extension cord out there so he had power. He was an excellent renter, never bothered us, he would take showers to the local college and not in our house. He'd mow the yard and do chores. He come in if we invited him like for dinner, which we did often, but he never foisted himself on us. Later he bought a rathole of a house and a bunch of us all worked on getting it so he could live in it. I was glad that he asked me for that favor as it made me feel closer to him. I also know that he still, almost 30 years later, feels he owes me big should I ever need one in return.
So, allow your friends to help, and be flexible.
Good luck.
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TradIsGood
Chalkless climber
the Gunks end of the country
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Dec 30, 2008 - 12:34pm PT
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I have a friend who is just renting her address.
To an engineer who is being paid extra to work on a long-term job in WV.
He lives in WV, but he gets paid extra because he has not changed his home address.
Just forwards the mail once in awhile.
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jenren
Trad climber
Sac, CA
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Dec 30, 2008 - 01:43pm PT
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Amen to that sully!!!
Write it down!! Share!!..If you write it they will pay... : )
Good Luck JB..
Hang in there if you can or if you really want to..
There are some companys offering to help you procure a loan MOD for about 4gs..FYI the fee is negotialble..and they will many times take payments. Usually a group of Attorneys/Realtors offering to be the liason between you and the lender..pretty good sucess rate..just check them out six ways from Sunday and read the fine print..
Take care! : )
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salad
climber
Escondido
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Dec 30, 2008 - 02:56pm PT
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John,
Here is the email from my friend in the mortgage business:
I've heard some good things about a government sponsored organization called HOPE NOW.
Here is their website.
http://www.hopenow.com/
I would love to know how it goes for him if/when he calls. He should. I hear they actually do some things:
Freezing a low fixed rate.
Balance forgiveness (lowering the loan amount).
That kind of thing.
Hope it helps.
Best of luck...
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Batrock
Trad climber
Burbank
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Dec 30, 2008 - 05:50pm PT
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I dont have the patience to read the whole post so I am just speaking to the first few posts by Bachar.
People who trash homes before they leave are scum. It is not the right thing to do, it may feel good but it is wrong.
I also understand the need to want to lay blame on someone else other than yourself but nobody twisted your arm when you signed the paper saying you would make the payments on time.
It's called responsibility and being an adult and taking responsibility for promises you made no matter how absurd. There are millions in your position.
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John Moosie
climber
Beautiful California
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Dec 30, 2008 - 07:19pm PT
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Batrock, John was making a joke.
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bachar
Gym climber
Mammoth Lakes, CA
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Topic Author's Reply - Dec 30, 2008 - 09:27pm PT
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Salad,
Thanks for the link. I've already been there. I don't qualify for their programs. I've also tried all the things they suggested about contacting my mortgage provider to try to alter my loan agreement. They say they can't do anything.
Hence, my proposed letter. It is a joke letter. I thought it might be a way to get their attention. Obviously I'm not sending it.
I am extremely frustrated by the whole thing as I'm sure tens thousands of people in this country are.
It's just as much my fault as it is theirs in my opinion. They get the bailout money but it's not helping us. The H4H program is pretty much a total failure so far.
The Fed keeps printing more money and accounts to no one. What can you do?
Instead of a chainsaw, maybe I should get a printing machine...hahaha
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salad
climber
Escondido
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Dec 30, 2008 - 09:32pm PT
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Sorry John. I have still got the contact at the Bank of Escondido. I'll be there tomorrow and if he is working, I'll ping him.
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Captain...or Skully
Trad climber
North of the Owyhees
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Dec 30, 2008 - 09:33pm PT
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All it takes is the right paper......I know where the mill is.
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