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Chaz
Trad climber
So. Cal.
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Aug 29, 2008 - 12:47pm PT
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In the last couple hours, the Republicans knocked Obama's Big Night off the top-story, nuetralized Obama's *change* hustle, and cut the balls off the Democrats' Pit Bull, Biden (Biden can't very well use his attack-dog thing on Palin during the debate without coming off like he is beating up on the girl).
Is Carl Rove still running things there?
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HighDesertDJ
Trad climber
Arid-zona
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Aug 29, 2008 - 12:49pm PT
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LEB- Now more than ever you obviously have no idea what you're talking about. Hillary supporters weren't supporting a woman. They were supporting a strong woman with a pile of experience fighting for women's rights, children's issues, equal pay, health care etc etc etc. If you think the majority of those peeps are gonna hop on the McCain wagon because he picked a chick you must think women are pretty shallow creatures. There are a number who have already jumped ship out of vindictiveness or racism, but disgruntled Hillary supporters are more likely to sit at home than vote for McCain based on a woman VP.
If woman was always trump then why weren't you a Hillary supporter?
Chaz- Yes.
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Mighty Hiker
Social climber
Vancouver, B.C.
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Aug 29, 2008 - 12:51pm PT
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The timing is rather interesting. A fairly blatant attempt to steal some of Obama's thunder. The Republicans may not have had much alternative - assuming the choice had to be announced before their prayerfest starts, then with the Labour Day weekend, it was either today, or no one notices until Tuesday.
Laughably, the RNC spin doctors were caught trying to peddle a prediction that Obama's campaign would get a 16% bump in the polls after the convention. Nothing like setting an absurd goal for your opponent.
On the subject of predictions, I predict here that McCain will get an 18% bump in the polls after the Republican convention. If he gets less than that, it's proof that he's a loser.
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bluering
Trad climber
Santa Clara, Ca.
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Aug 29, 2008 - 12:51pm PT
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HDDJ, I never called Obama a fool. A socialist maybe.
And since it appears I have a REAL conservative in the game now, yeah, that KICKS ASS!!!
Dick said, " How will the hard-core conservatives feel about a women being one heart-beat away from being president since they believe a women's place is in the home, raising the kids, etc. The far right may even vote for Obama over this one. "
Wow, you really don't understand conservatives do you? That explains a lot.
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Dick_Lugar
Trad climber
Indiana (the other Mideast)
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Aug 29, 2008 - 12:54pm PT
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LEB...I'M A MAN!! I MAKE FIRE! You may have something there, maybe I don't understand the far-right after all, and I take pride in that.
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Patrick Sawyer
climber
Originally California now Ireland
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Aug 29, 2008 - 12:55pm PT
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There are a number who have already jumped ship out of vindictiveness or racism,
HighDesrtDJ, I never knew that.
I don't suppose a perceived sexism by both the media and the party had anything to do with many women supporters of Hillary becoming disgruntled.
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Dick_Lugar
Trad climber
Indiana (the other Mideast)
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Aug 29, 2008 - 12:59pm PT
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This VEEP choice does really show the conservatives true colors. They'd never pick a women unless they were forced to do so out of survival. If this in the end opens the doors to women and minorities to the presidency, then we all win in the end.
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Aug 29, 2008 - 01:05pm PT
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Flashlite- Apologies-forgot to hold up "sarcasm" sign.
LEB Have you got the call yet?
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tolman_paul
Trad climber
Anchorage, AK
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Aug 29, 2008 - 01:06pm PT
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You leftests are so funny. If the shoe was on the other foot with hillary in the passanger seat and folks on the right making the comments you're making about Sarah, you'd be foaming at the mouth about those sexist anti woman barbs. I find it so ironic how the enlightened left think a pretty woman from a smaller state will just get torn apart in the debates. You might just be suprised.
I can't say I like any of the candidates, but as a strategic move the repubs have positioned themselves well.
Remember elections are won by the shallowest minded swing voters who look at the election more as a popularity contest. Obama looses to the closest racists, and the soccer moms.
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coward
Trad climber
Boulder, Wyoming
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Aug 29, 2008 - 01:08pm PT
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McCain must be insane to make this call. Sarah Palin, a former Miss Congeniality for the Alaska Beauty Pageant, and governor of that gorgeous state for 2 years only, running for VP?!?!
Talk about a flip flop for McCain on the experience issue.
And don't give me that crap about "executive experience" that Obama is supposed to be lacking. She doesn't compare...but then again, what "executive experience" does McCain have, having 20+ years as a legislator?
But hey, at least she hunts and fishes and looks good...right, guys?
The only folks who could possibly be excited about this choice are the Evangelicals and hard core social conservatives. The rest of us are shaking our heads. Maybe the election will be all about pro-life and pro-choice...a referendum for the abortion issue.
t
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Dick_Lugar
Trad climber
Indiana (the other Mideast)
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Aug 29, 2008 - 01:13pm PT
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If McCain/Palin do win, I wonder if Palin will make the same salary as her previous male counterparts?
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jstan
climber
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Aug 29, 2008 - 01:14pm PT
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According to the 1994 Group Annuity Mortality tables
McCain has a 10% chance of dying before the completion of a first term
and a 23% chance of dying before the completion of a second term.
I think the thoughtful voter needs to examine both McCain and this running mate as to whether they are presidential timber. These odds are getting up there.
Note:
I used the 94 tables because subsequent tables are getting absurd. The latest set of tables treats "blue collar" workers differently from "white collar" workers because blue collar people are not expected to live as long.
Don't ask me why there has not been screaming all over Washington because of this. Living here more and more requires one have the ability to suspend disbelief.
In time one of the leading causes of death in the US will come from falling down rabbit holes.
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coward
Trad climber
Boulder, Wyoming
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Aug 29, 2008 - 01:18pm PT
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Palin should rally the conservatives and redneck America together, highlighting the split between the Dems and Reps on steak and potatoes issues such as gun rights, the environment, drilling, and abortion.
But it's not reaching across the aisle very much. I doubt that any Hillary supporters will be convinced to go the other way to McCain.
And How Ignorant of the issues that Americans in the lower 48 is this chick? She's going to have to get nightly briefings every hour of every day to get up to speed to the play the game. I feel sorry for her. Poor woman is going to be whitehaired as McCain when she gets spit out in November!
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Mighty Hiker
Social climber
Vancouver, B.C.
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Aug 29, 2008 - 01:22pm PT
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Having successfully predicted that McCain would pick a woman, I'll venture a further prediction. That is, that his choosing Palin won't make much difference in the election.
1. Alaska has few electoral votes, all of which were Republican anyway.
2. The indictment and trial of Republican senator Stevens (Alaska), combined with his re-election campaign, will be linked in the public eye to Palin.
3. She will negatively emphasize McCain's age.
4. It's far from clear at this point if Palin has the experience and ability to act as president, or succeed McCain if needed. Job #1 of the VP - be able to take the president's place. Unlike Biden, she hasn't shown that she could credibly be president.
5. The Christian right and the people who vote "values" have no choice but to vote Republican anyway. They won't vote for a black.
6. Most of those women genuinely concerned about what are called womens' issues won't vote Republican just because McCain has nominated a woman.
7. A lot will see this as manipulative, or even a "hail Mary" tactic. Something done out of desperation. Which is what it is.
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stevep
Boulder climber
Salt Lake, UT
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Aug 29, 2008 - 01:27pm PT
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I'm confused Lois. You seem to be saying that middle to liberal women are going to vote for a very conservative woman solely because she's female.
Would you have voted for Hilary? Or maybe more to the point, did you vote for Mondale/Ferraro?
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klk
Trad climber
cali
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Aug 29, 2008 - 01:27pm PT
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One of the key reasons for making this pick is to alter the media cycle. One of the concerns was that the Dem convention, if it went well, could bump Obama anywhere from five to ten points, depending on how well it went and how good the media coverage.
This is probably the only pick McCain could've made that did what it did-- pushed Obama's speech off the top of the page and disrupted the news cycle. One of the hopes is clearly that this pick, by virtue of its novelty, will cut the typical early convention bump and keep McCain closer in the key states.
We still have no idea what the polls are in the critical states/counties. The numbers reported recently are largely national ones, which aren't all that relevant. Presumably they did some sort of focus group work before making this decision.
Palin is a bold pick in another way, namely that it undercuts what has been McCain's key theme thus far, namely that what matters in the 21st C. is experience, especially in foreign policy. I don't think she's as dangerous as Dan Quayle in a media setting-- she's very photogenic and good on her feet in the few times I've seen her on television.
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Mighty Hiker
Social climber
Vancouver, B.C.
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Aug 29, 2008 - 01:27pm PT
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jstan provided the statistics to back up the reality: Even apart from the stresses and risks that come with being president, and even given the best of health care, McCain has a 10% chance of dying in the next four years, and a 23% chance of dying in the next eight. Add to that the possibility of his becoming physically or mentally disabled, but not dying.
Palin, like Quayle, is a pretty face and a bone thrown to the "base". In Palin's case, also a desperate attempt to show relevance. It is very unlikely that Quayle could have been a competent president, and Palin simply doesn't have the experience at this point to do it.
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Ouch!
climber
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Aug 29, 2008 - 01:31pm PT
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Good pick for McCain. Being a mother, she can wipe the drool from his chin and calm him down when he throws a tantrum.
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JuanDeFuca
Big Wall climber
Stoney Point
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Aug 29, 2008 - 01:32pm PT
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Wow, is she sexy. I love 40ish Women.
Juan
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happiegrrrl
Trad climber
New York, NY
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Aug 29, 2008 - 01:33pm PT
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LEB is right.
It IS brilliant!
But nor for the reasons she thinks.
This choice for VP is going to be the upstanding, sexy middle finger of the big "FU" the GOP smirkingly flashes the US on November 4th, 2008 when - unbelievably - the GOP retains presidential power. McCain and Palin don't matter, because they won't be running the show. Just as Bush didn't.
It will not COME about in the popular vote. It MAY come by electoral college, in some just as disbelievable way as the Florida Chad debacle. Only more so. Watch and see - NY will never go GOP but I bet some other states will "surprise" us in doing so and, thus, swinging the election.
Either that pr they will simply all out declare marshall law. Can't you HEAR the likes of Cheney sneering "Whattaya gonna do about it? Sucker."
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