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Karl Baba
Trad climber
Yosemite, Ca
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Jun 26, 2007 - 05:49pm PT
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I was tracking the NPS weather recording and Wunderground at the time. Both parrot the NWS forecast for the area. Perhaps the storm wasn't predicted to dip so low. In any case, it's clear that if we disagree, the Japanese wouldn't be expected to know, and there were folks all over the walls so it clearly wasn't a predicted nasty storm from the get go or they wouldn't have swarmed up there.
Agree to disagree, it's history anyway
Peace
Karl
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ontheedgeandscaredtodeath
Trad climber
San Francisco, Ca
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Jun 26, 2007 - 05:54pm PT
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Dunno what I would have done. I climbed Mescalito in late October and had to sit through what turned out to be somewhat minor rain/snow storm. We just set up the fly and hunkered into the ledge and hoped for the best. It would have been really difficult if not impossible to get down- we were way up. We had tons of storm gear, bivy sacks, food, water, etc, and it seemed that trying to go up or down was far worse than staying put. I can't imagine being out on the face trying to deal with leading or rapping in one of those storms. Yikes. Sad.
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ontheedgeandscaredtodeath
Trad climber
San Francisco, Ca
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Jun 26, 2007 - 06:14pm PT
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Well, for us, we were moving so damn slow the only place we could have gotten a weather report that covered the span of our stay on the wall was a farmers almanac!
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JLP
Social climber
The internet
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Jun 26, 2007 - 06:19pm PT
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Interesting that I can't imagine a pair like this on Mescalito. The access the Nose provides indeed has its dangers. Like the flight of Icarus.
Forecasts - 7 days out is forever and so highly likely to change. None of us would ever get out. Sounds like they were on the slower plan anyway, using Dolt, IV and VI. Few go up there with those camps in mind as plan A. They almost made it under sunny skies. They had wet weather gear.
JLP
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Tahoe climber
Trad climber
a dark-green forester out west
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Jun 26, 2007 - 07:30pm PT
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i move so slowly that even a farmer's almanac is cutting it close...
Props to everyone for having the courage to discuss this after the fact - I like that everyone is respectful of the dead, but still unafraid to face reality.
DMT - good points, I don't perceive you as dissing the dead, just bringing up facts, and we can all benefit from them.
I know for damn sure I won't be getting on a wall in October with out watching the weather closely! In Tahoe, when jonesing for snow, we look more at Hawaii and Alaska's weather than the local weather models. Anything further out than 3 days or so for local models is just verbal masturbation, IMO. You gotta scope what's going on elsewhere, a week out, to see what *might* happen, then make an educated decision.
The truth is, they cut the margin too thin and got caught. We've all done it - and gotten away with it - in one form or another. To compound the issue, it sounds like they might have been too proud to accept a rescue. But it sounds like a fairly comprehensive good breakdown of the physical facts of the case - and bless the YOSAR team for saving the ones they did in the face of harm!
Back to weather, one thing that I wanted to clarify, and correct me if I'm wrong, but 20% chance of weather means that precip hits 20% of the forecasted area - it doesn't *necessarily* mean that it will only precip 20% of the time, or that the odds are 2 in 10. Some areas inside a forecasted area always get hit if it's a 20% chance, just depending on where they are and the way the geography shapes the wind, clouds, etc...
Cool thread
-A
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David Nelson
climber
San Francisco
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Jun 26, 2007 - 10:53pm PT
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Let's try to keep this on topic, learn a bit from the horrible past, but not throw down on anyone. If any reader has not already read the three threads that were going on during the rescue, you owe it to yourself to check them out before posting a comment:
I think that this was the first thread started on the storm: http://www.supertopo.com/climbing/thread.html?topic_id=43012&msg=43235#msg43235
Lincoln Else's thread (if you don't know, Linc is our hero, a voice of reason in a storm, and the Climbing Ranger during the rescue): http://www.supertopo.com/climbing/thread.html?topic_id=43362&msg=43362#msg43362
Remember, this was one heck of a storm. Tommy Tompson posted this about his experience on El Cap in that storm:
"The storm packed unrelenting fury for nearly 4 continuous days. I felt like we were in a row boat in the middle of north Atlantic hurricane. We had the best ledge money could buy ,a A5 cliff cabana with a 4 season fly. The fly is more of a tent that encompasses the whole ledge. Even though I truly believe that this system attributed to our survival, more than once Erik and I thought the winds were going shred it apart right in front of our eyes. We had not a single dry item to our name." (Full thread here: http://www.supertopo.com/climbing/forum.html?topic_id=&m=45776);
This thread was started after the storm, when a bit more data was known. The must-read entry is from Linc, scroll down to Feb 2, 2005 1:43 PM. He recounts what it felt like to try to ski in during to storm to the top of El Cap to try to rescue the climbers: http://www.supertopo.com/climbing/thread.html?topic_id=57522&msg=59013#msg59013
Here is a picture that says it all:
The Captain, the day after the storm
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Jun 26, 2007 - 11:08pm PT
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I remember that storm, and I think it hit much harder than expected... perhaps Dingus had legitimately better information and experience than the rest of us. But the reports on the NWS site didn't predict a severe storm, and that storm was severe.
Now that being said, going up on a wall with that weather prediction I would have been prepared for the worst. The only other way to do it is to race the storm and make sure you were off before it got serious.
Woulda, coulda, shoulda...
tragedy no matter what.
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Mighty Hiker
Social climber
Vancouver, B.C.
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Jun 26, 2007 - 11:55pm PT
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Rescues can also be dangerous to the rescuers. The first (?) climber fatality on El Capitan was Jim Madsen, in October 1968. Some climbers were high on the Dihedral in a "huge storm" (Roper). There was no communication with them, and it was feared they were hypothermic or worse. Madsen and other climbers hiked to the top, planning to rappel to their friends. He rappelled off the end of his rope. The climbers had holed up deep in a slot, and were ok.
Rescuers do extraordinary things - when there's a chance of rescuing a live person.
Some allowance also must be made for the "fog of rescue". A rescue has parallels with military combat - fairly high risk, communication challenges, incomplete information, environmental issues, training and equipment, and so on. With 20:20 hindsight, it always looks different - which is why teams have debriefings, and more.
My father was with the Mountain Rescue Group here for years, and was seriously hurt in a search in 1966. A search for someone who was never found. It is believed the person simply wanted to disappear, and start over somewhere else.
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WBraun
climber
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Jun 27, 2007 - 12:08am PT
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You can't trust that NOAA internet weather report for Yosemite Valley nor any of those other internet weather sites. They are not very accurate.
Many times the fire guys give a totally different report than any of those sites.
I don't know where Yosemite Fire gets theirs but they have very accurate weather reports and forecasts.
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WBraun
climber
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Jun 27, 2007 - 12:26am PT
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Another point (my own opinion and not Yosar or NPS)
The Japanese climbers royally screwed up.
They should have hunkered down or if it was me I wold have rappelled like a psycho as fast as I could. On the Nose you can retreat from Camp 6 to at least Dolt tower very quickly or all the way to the ground.
The Japanese had the time to do that.
It's wicked dangerous to be exposed high up on El Cap in storm conditions that were encountered during that time. Wet rain will suck the life out of you in no time.
I've been exposed on half dome in a deluge and became hypodermic and most of my teeth were loose in my gums from them chattering for such a prolonged period. Luckily we topped out.
On El Cap me and Shipley got caught in a very bad deluge and had to retreat one pitch lower to survive.
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T2
climber
Cardiff by the sea
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Jun 27, 2007 - 12:55am PT
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The Japanese climbers royally screwed up.
They should have hunkered down or if it was me I wold have rappelled like a psycho as fast as I could. On the Nose you can retreat from Camp 6 to at least Dolt tower very quickly or all the way to the ground.
The Japanese had the time to do that.
Werner I couldn't agree more. My first thought about the 2 Japanese after all the excitment settled down was why did they not rapp after that first wet night? I wonder if this was ever discused between them and if so why it was ruled out.
May they rest in peace!
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rockermike
Mountain climber
Berkeley
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Jun 27, 2007 - 12:32pm PT
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Looking at the whole scenario I don't see anything they did really obviously wrong - except drop their haul bag - that was it, all over.
Everything else is a judgment call and I could see myself making the same set of decisions - wrong decisions granted, but that is 20/20 hind sight.
People like Werner have been on that route (how many times?) so rapping may seem easy and straight forward. But first time down I would be nervous. Can you find bolt anchors buried in a waterfall somewhere out on the face?, What if rope gets stuck? etc. lots of unknowns. and meanwhile you are getting wetter and colder each passing minute.
I've heard camp 5 is much more hospitable in a storm. Maybe going down to there would have been a good call. But they probably didn't know that.
One thing I can say, my haul bag keeps getting heavier every story like this I read.
and hey, what's the absolute most bomber rain gear you can get? Seems like everything these days is Gortex and I don't know if that will work in multi-day storm?
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WBraun
climber
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Jun 27, 2007 - 01:42pm PT
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There was no rain that morning when they could have rapped.
They could have rapped to the great roof and got underneath it.
The main thing is when you are doing a wall always be on the look out for possible protected bivy spots and escape hatches that can get you out of the elements.
I always looked for those as a "just in case factor" and made mental notes in my mind.
Sometimes you can just retreat to them if they are there or if needed climb up to them.
People need to factor all the options before all hell breaks loose.
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JLP
Social climber
The internet
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Jun 27, 2007 - 02:21pm PT
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"People like Werner have been on that route (how many times?) so rapping may seem easy and straight forward."
I think my point would be - ideally, someone who gets on the Nose has done so many raps and bails off other big routes that going down the Nose would be a digestable option.
"Looking at the whole scenario I don't see anything they did really obviously wrong"
...except get in WAY over their head!
"everything these days is Gortex"
They are not all equal. I have an XCR jacket thay weighs maybe 2 lbs and I have yet to get wet in it. Worst case is taking it off to shake out condensation. Cloths underneath are usually more or less dry. I also have a very light goretex-like lined wind jacket I wore just this AM (bike to work day...) that can handle maybe 1/2-1 hour of rain. I have 2-3 other goretex jackets in between. I used to use a PVC rain jacket on walls, but quickly learned there are two ways you can get wet and be miserable - from the inside and from the outside.
Given long enough in any storm with any gear, you will get wet. That's where the wool and synthetics come in, and maybe a sponge.
JLP
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salbrecher
Mountain climber
vancouver
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Jun 30, 2007 - 06:33pm PT
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Just to add/confirm a few things that Lambone said, I was with Lambone under the YOSAR tent in the meadows the day YOSAR yelled up on the loudspeaker.
I recall hearing The Japanese girl yell down when asked if they wanted a rescue. Contrary to this, after the japanese man had yelled up on the loudspeaker he told us something to the effect (i can't remember exactly) that "Japanese would never ask for a rescue".
YOSAR did say that a rescue was coming but i'm not sure if they said to stay put or not. I remember wondering why they had said that a rescue was coming (not sure of the exact time it was yelled up but before noon) when no rescue got to them till the next morning when they were dead. In my opinion, if i were the climbers on the nose i would have been under the impression that the rescue was coming sooner based on what was told to be yelled up. Perhaps even motivating me to start climbing up and either top out or get rescued trying. After waiting 2 days and hearing a rescue was coming i would have been least likely to rap down.
Climbing a pitch or 2 in freezing rain or waterfall is one thing, (i'm sure more than a few of us here have done that) and it's often easy enough to stay warm while continually moving. But don't underestimate what a few days of physically demanding climbing, plus rationing water and food will do to make you sooooooooooo much more susceptible to the cold.
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chappy
Social climber
ventura
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Jun 30, 2007 - 08:11pm PT
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I heard somewhere, can't remember where, that accidents generally can't be traced back to one single factor but rather a chain of events that when linked together cause the event. Break a link in the chain and the outcome changes. The links are fairly obvious. Relatively weak and inexperienced climbing team, potentially dangerous season to climb in, lack of knowledge of local weather patterns, cultural/language barriers, unusually severe (though not atypical) storm, bad location on route, dropping haul bag and gear, decision to continue climbing rather than hunkering down. The what ifs are endless...What if they had been on the route a month earlier? A link broken. What if they were more experienced and had climbed faster? A link broken. What if the storm had been a fraction less severe? A link broken. The bottom line is they had a bit of bad luck that they couldn't overcome. Who hasn't been in a similar situation and but for a little luck--and/or experience--by the skin of their teeth managed to pull through? I am sure there have been less experienced, less prepared climbers who have climbed the Nose countless times with no problem. It seems to me a culmination of a lot of little mistakes combined with a bit of bad luck. Sad, sad , sad...
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Bobo
Trad climber
San Francisco
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I was is in the Valley that weekend and I recall this storm had been predicted well in advance. Having been camping in the valley for some time before they may have not heard about it.
I was also in the valley that weekend 20 years earlier when some Japanese climber died on the same route and I watched the triple rescue on El Cap. That storm had NOT been predicted and took everyone by surprise.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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"You can't trust that NOAA internet weather report for Yosemite Valley nor any of those other internet weather sites. They are not very accurate.
Many times the fire guys give a totally different report than any of those sites.
I don't know where Yosemite Fire gets theirs but they have very accurate weather reports and forecasts."
Werner, is there a way to get the Yosemite Fire forecast off the internet?
If not, what is the best Yosemite weather forecast that you can get on the internet? The underground.com that Dingus mentioned?
Better forecast from the park would be great, but with their level of paranoi, every posted forecast always ends with at least a "chance of thunderstorms" whether there is a 20% chance or a 2% chance. After a while, you learn to shrug it off.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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"Although kimgraves got railed for it, I second her opinion - the fact that they didn't survive means that they did do some things wrong"
They took a calculated risk to climb a big wall.
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Lambone
Ice climber
Ashland, Or
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Dude, you have got to be kidding me.
"YOSAR comprised just a small part of the total number of capable climbers in the valley at the time. It seems the response of the climbing community at large could have been much better."
BTW-Two climbers got plucked off the Shield Headwall on the first day of the storm by their friends in Camp 4. They hiked ropes in up the East Ledges and rapped down the headwall.
But once it was apparent that people needed to be plucked the conditions were horrible man, and YOSAR was on it. One guy (or two) can't do this alone. It takes a mobilized team effort. YOSAR is the best qualified for such a miserable task. For amatures it would have been a sucide mission, and I can garuantee that the YOSAR people would have been against it.
We were standing in the meadow getting totally hammered, soaked and freezing. The road to the trailhead for the shortest approach(120 to Tioga) was closed under snow, and YOSAR had to go in in heavy equipment.
By the time people (like Dave Turner) and the Japanesse were calling for a rescue, it took the very capable rescuers all night to slog into the summit through waist deep snow. No one heard any cries for a rescue from them before a bull-horn call was made, even Dave who was only a few hunderd feet away. They died that night.
Of course I wanted to help, as did we all. Did I have my full-on winter mountaineering kit with me...NO. You'd need gaiters, mits, plastic boots, mega down, and bombproof gor-tex, stoves, bags, basecamp tent, etc to stay somewhat un-hypothermic. Plus hundreds of feet of rope.
"First off the climbers that knew of other parties on the rock should have at least kept an eye on things and let YOSAR know."
I saw Keith Lober scoping in the Meadow the day before the contact was made. We talked with him about parties on the wall and I told him I saw lights high on the Nose at the beginning of the storm.
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