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Splater
climber
Grey Matter
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Mar 12, 2016 - 05:17pm PT
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"In fact, if we really want to be serious about AGCC we'd give up on trying to fix the problem and starting dealing with how we'll mitigate it."
I completely disagree.
People will naturally mitigate on their own once they are forced to by the changed environment.
How much mitigation is needed depends on how much we have acted to minimize warming / solar radiative forcing.
There is a HUGE difference between RCP levels.
RCP8.5 is a model of society doing very little to minimize GHGs and the effects are far more disastrous and net costly than RCP4.5
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathways#/media/File:All_forcing_agents_CO2_equivalent_concentration.png
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathways
http://www.skepticalscience.com/rcp.php?t=3
>> Four Representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Four RCPs…produced from IAM scenarios available in the published literature: one high pathway for which radiative forcing reaches >8.5 W/m2 by 2100 and continues to rise for some amount of time; two intermediate “stabilization pathways” in which radiative forcing is stabilized at approximately 6 W/m2 and 4.5 W/m2 after 2100; and one pathway where radiative forcing peaks at approximately 3 W/m2 before 2100 and then declines. These scenarios include time paths for emissions and concentrations of the full suite of GHGs and aerosols and chemically active gases, as well as land use/land cover…
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JLP
Social climber
The internet
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Mar 13, 2016 - 10:15pm PT
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Winemaker,
You might find this of interest:
glaciers.research.pdx.edu/photos Interesting, but it seemed like most of the older photos don't have dates, just the year. Huge difference between spring and fall. Almost seemed like propaganda.
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tuolumne_tradster
Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
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Mar 13, 2016 - 10:45pm PT
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August 2009 from the Skyline Trail...
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Hardly Visible
Social climber
Llatikcuf WA
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Mar 14, 2016 - 09:17am PT
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JLP,
You must need glasses. Since we are talking Rainier glaciers here I went and looked at the first page of three of the better known glaciers on Rainier the Nisqually, the Carbon and the Emmons. Counting only pictures older than 10 years, out of 46 pictures of the Nisqually 4 do not have dates, out of 39 pictures of the Carbon only 4 do not have dates (all from 1900), and out of 39 pictures of the Emmons 0 do not have dates. If you look at the site you will see that all photos that were taken for glacier studies (as opposed to those taken by casual observers) will have a date on them.
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JLP
Social climber
The internet
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Mar 14, 2016 - 10:40am PT
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There is a comparison tool on the site presented front and center - the older photos used in that tool do not say the month of the year. Don't really have the interest to dig through the archives. Those photos do seem to have dates, but you're left to compare on your own. As I said, I think this oversight seems to be by design, feel free to demonstrate otherwise.
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Winemaker
Sport climber
Yakima, WA
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Topic Author's Reply - Mar 14, 2016 - 10:54am PT
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I posted this topic because I use this mountain weather site
http://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Mount-Rainier/forecasts/3500
for forecasts; the site makes snowfall and temperature predictions for different altitudes. What drew my attention were some of the high snowfall predictions (20 inches or more some days). I wondered if a warmer climate, carrying more moisture, might deposit enough high altitude snow to feed glaciers faster than the melt rate, leading to growth.
Looks like probably no, however.
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neebee
Social climber
calif/texas
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Dec 18, 2016 - 02:16am PT
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hey there, say... bump... :)
thanks for the link, thank you so much...
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Dec 18, 2016 - 09:15am PT
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TT's pic is nearly unrecognizable to me. It is way worse than the last time I was there about
15 years ago, let alone back in my hay days. Couple of my old ski routes are bare rock.
BITD they would not have been fun in August, but they would have been doable.
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