Discussion Topic |
|
This thread has been locked |
Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
|
|
Jun 29, 2015 - 08:48am PT
|
Rick, my crystal ball shows Brasil looming large:
Huge structural problems.
High corruption levels.
A vastly bloated government.
Very poor tax collection rate.
Budget imbalance of -5.5%, officially (wink,wink), which must surely rise as Dilma will
surely resort to increased vote-buying to stay in power.
13% official interest rate
Accelerating inflation rate soon to press 10%!
This could make Greece look a cake-walk.
Fear, I'm long Proctor&Gamble - people still need to brush their teeth and wipe their asses.
BTW, I told you people 6 months ago to short the Euro and stay the course on bonds.
I have and will continue to be proved correct. ;-)
John, yes, Italy and France are not good but not imminent, either. To my surprise and joy
Renzi is really trying to make meaningful changes. We will see how serious the rest of
his country is in supporting him. Not unexpectedly the French continue to blithely row
with one oar in the water.
|
|
jstan
climber
|
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Jun 29, 2015 - 08:56am PT
|
Here ST has a built-in capability. From one source we can get input from people with widely ranging experience and from nearly every part of the world. And more often than not, if a poster uses punctuation, five letter words, and does not post fifty times a day, you have a winner.
|
|
John Duffield
Mountain climber
New York
|
|
|
Jun 29, 2015 - 09:02am PT
|
The immediate effect, will be political.
The Greeks, in a last ditch effort, elected a Socialist. That, was really the wrong move.
The UK, always a step ahead of the curve, already sent the Left packing. August vacations loom. So they need to either settle some issues soon, or put them on ice until Fall.
|
|
Brokedownclimber
Trad climber
Douglas, WY
|
|
|
Jun 29, 2015 - 10:07am PT
|
"Socialism is great, until they run out of other people's money."
Margaret Thatcher.
|
|
couchmaster
climber
|
|
|
Jun 29, 2015 - 10:37am PT
|
Yanqui said: "From 1974-1983, after being given the thumbs up from Kissinger and the US government, the dictators in Argentina "disappeared" an estimated 13,000 dissidents (which included the parents of a friend of mine), many of whom were active members of the Marxist People's Revolutionary Army. Since 1983 Argentina has had democracy and the murder rate is at levels comparable to the US.
I certainly do not mean disrespect to any innocent citizens who were victims of the Dirty War (which includes the parents of my friend), but to characterize this period as "the record ... for most innocent citizens murdrered by the government" seems totally absurd to me."
Sorry, time flies and poor math combined. I amend my point to read 32-41 years instead of within the last 10 years. Yes, you can go back further and see a government that preyed on their own citizens by dragging them out in the middle of the night, then torturing and executing them with a bullet to the back of the head, but Argentina has the recent state terrorism record is my point.
I didn't know that the US Secretary of State Henry Kissenger caused it to occur though. Interesting that this site doesn't list CIA involvement in Argentinas Dirty War. http://www.huppi.com/kangaroo/CIAtimeline.html It does show that we have overthrown the Greek Government a couple times. Once of the current charges being tossed around in the current Greek crisis. (ie, that the "reforms" being demanded all but have caused, and will cause again, more change in Greece.)
This link will flesh out that thought, titled "Athens is Being Blackmailed" http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/06/28/athens-is-being-blackmailed-alexis-tsipras-greece-syriza-eurozone/?wp_login_redirect=0
http://www.globalresearch.ca/hope-on-the-horizon-and-it-comes-from-greece/5442629
I was thinking the number was much higher than your 13,000.
"In three years as many as 30,000 Argentines were killed."
I also mean no disrespect. Disrespect would be not learning from the past, and forgetting such things entirely. In my mind, US citizens generally do not understand what occurred and if they do, do not believe that this could happen here. Our politicians are all honest and trustworthy (they think). Bringing up these kind of horrible things is worth considering for that reason alone. Rule of law, not rule of "man" or rule of" Army" is all that separates us from that kind of a horror show that we often create or assist elsewhere, and it's a very thin line that keeps getting thinner all the time.
|
|
JEleazarian
Trad climber
Fresno CA
|
|
|
Jun 29, 2015 - 11:00am PT
|
Here ST has a built-in capability. From one source we can get input from people with widely ranging experience and from nearly every part of the world. And more often than not, if a poster uses punctuation, five letter words, and does not post fifty times a day, you have a winner.
Oh, oh. My secret source of all international financial knowledge has been exposed! Truly, jstan, if one is willing to filter out the noise, and still listen to everything - not just those who say what you already think - ST is a veritable treasure trove of knowledge and wisdom.
John
|
|
SteveW
Trad climber
The state of confusion
|
|
|
Jun 29, 2015 - 01:05pm PT
|
Turbulence is right--NYSE is down 350 today.
|
|
Jan
Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
|
|
|
Jun 29, 2015 - 02:36pm PT
|
One Greek player not mentioned yet, is Russia. For historic reasons involving their common religion (not to mention the extension of their influence further into Europe than Ukraine), I think we will be hearing from them soon. Warm water ports in the Med in exchange for for low cost fuel?
|
|
jstan
climber
|
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Jun 29, 2015 - 03:32pm PT
|
As it affects me, I was correct in predicting a restrained response. Tomorrow's actual failure to pay the IMF 1.8Bn is probably going to be similar.
|
|
MH2
Boulder climber
Andy Cairns
|
|
|
Jun 29, 2015 - 06:18pm PT
|
Haven't the banks got a procedure for this? You give the residents notice to move and then take possession of the property.
|
|
Studly
Trad climber
WA
|
|
|
Jun 29, 2015 - 06:24pm PT
|
Now Puerto Rico is jumping ship and bailing on their 73 billion loan. The dominos start to fall..
|
|
TGT
Social climber
So Cal
|
|
|
Jun 29, 2015 - 06:31pm PT
|
What's the difference between the US and Greece other than timeline?
|
|
Fritz
Trad climber
Choss Creek, ID
|
|
|
Jun 29, 2015 - 06:49pm PT
|
There isn't much in the news about the current Greek government folks begging Putin & Russia for "bail-out" money, but Cramer mentions it today on his discourse on why you shouldn't buy into the current dip. It is always worth noting when someone that is most always bullish on stocks, is not bullish.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cramer-danger-alert-dont-buy-221009420.html#
I'm not selling. I'm not buying.
and TGT, hopefully you are happy with your investments.
|
|
Rock!...oopsie.
Trad climber
the pitch above you
|
|
|
Jun 29, 2015 - 07:25pm PT
|
Cramer mentions it today
Cramer? Really? If you want to do well, pretend he doesn't exist. He's the Gallagher of the financial world.
|
|
clinker
Trad climber
Santa Cruz, California
|
|
|
Jun 30, 2015 - 02:06am PT
|
What to do?
|
|
JimT
climber
Munich
|
|
|
Jun 30, 2015 - 02:22am PT
|
Their debt of 279 Bil. roughly equates to 25,200 per person.
Our debt in the US equates to 57,000 per person.
Are we next? Do we have any intention on leveling this debt?
It´s not how big the debt is but the ability to pay it off.
Greek debt 197% of GDP
USA debt 105% of GDP
Germany debt 69% of GDP
I lived for some years in Greece but nowadays prefer to live in Germany.
|
|
yanqui
climber
Balcarce, Argentina
|
|
|
Jun 30, 2015 - 03:42am PT
|
Couchmaster: the number 13,000 is not my number, it is the official government estimate. The government paid out about 11,000 indemnifications (up to 200,000 dollars) to the next of kin of victims who made claims after 1983, so the 30,000 number you cut and pasted sounds too high compared to that. At any rate, even if that number was correct, it would still be light years away from the worst thing a government ever did to its citizens.
Again for couchmaster: Here are the official US documents detailing Kissinger and the US government giving the thumbs up to dictators to go ahead with the disappearences:
http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB104/
Today Greece will indeed one-up Argentina. Even with all the problems they had, Argentina never defaulted on the IMF and actally ended up paying off the Fund in one big installment. What will be Europe's response?
|
|
Gunkie
climber
|
|
|
Jun 30, 2015 - 06:11am PT
|
One Greek player not mentioned yet, is Russia.
Bingo, Jan.
I'm convinced that Russia is the silent hand directing Alexis Tsipras to hold the line on austerity measures. Greece and Russia did have a discrete meeting not too long ago. Greece bails on the EU and Russia steps in and effectively has a Mediterranean base of operations in the heart of NATO.
With that said, it's still not even a minor blip on the US economy. However, the markets will move in draconian ways that can be exploited by savvy and agile investors to make serious dough.
|
|
HermitMaster
Social climber
my abode
|
|
|
Jun 30, 2015 - 06:42am PT
|
That Greece has been in default mode at least half of its modern existence reveals as silly the view that its debt troubles are scaring markets. If anything a default would be healthy in a normal world for it forces investors into real ideas over government consumption. Instead, Greece's troubles scare investors due to bank exposure to the debt, Greece's anti-growth response to what is a slow-growth problem, and then the comically obtuse idea that the near-term answer to Greece's troubles is a departure from the euro. Not only will Greece never fully exit the euro, to do so would be as silly as Arkansas exiting the dollar in favor of a local Peso.
What Greece's Alleged Collapse Is, and Isn't
By John Tamny
With Greece once again set to default on its government debt, markets are to varying degrees convulsing. The obvious question is whether or not the panic is rooted in something real to worry about. Not really. As is always the case, market fears are a creation of government error, not worries about a very minor economic entity.
To see why, it needs to first be remembered that a Greek default would be nothing new. As Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff noted in their much talked about 2009 book This Time Is Different, Greece has been in default mode roughly half of its modern existence. That its creditors might suffer a "haircut" on what is owed them is far from novel.
The only reason a default constitutes news has to do with who holds some of the country's debt. As evidenced by how the shares of German and French banks have rallied over the years each time a potential debt workout was reached, the story behind the non-story that is a Greek default involves banks that do not have an Athens address. In short, Greece's debt troubles have little to do with an historically profligate country, and everything to do with banks that are wrongly seen as too important to be allowed to suffer their mistakes.
Importantly, if banks were properly allowed to fail much like other private business are allowed to with great regularity, bank exposure to Greece would be a non-story. Better yet, banks likely wouldn't have exposure to Greece in the first place given its lousy track record. In short, government involvement in what should be the private doings of the private economy has created a "crisis" that would not exist absent the desire of politicians to insert themselves into a global economy that would be much healthier without political meddling.
"Healthy" is the operative word here because lest we forget, a lack of economic health explains why Greece has so often been enmeshed in default throughout its modern history. What's not discussed enough is that Greece has an economy that is roughly the size of Dallas, and that as a percentage of the overall Eurozone economy amounts to roughly 2-3 percent. That such a tiny part of Europe's economy could have investors up in arms is further evidence that this is all about the major banks with exposure to Greece, and nothing about a potential Greek default. The country itself quite simply doesn't much matter from either a global or European perspective.
Contagion? What a laugh. That's like saying that Texas state debt might go south in value for it being close to Louisiana, or for Mexico bordering it. Does anyone seriously think that Switzerland will suffer "contagion" relating to Greek debt? Let's be serious.
Can it then be said that Greece's own troubles amount to "contagion" for Greece? Not in the least. To state what should be obvious to anyone with the most basic of math skills, Greece doesn't suffer too much debt as much as it's struggling from too little economic growth. If the economy grows, the debt is easy to pay off. That's why rich countries can run up major "deficits," while poor countries have a more difficult time raising debt in the first place.
If Greece's economy were booming, it would not face a default situation. There are many authors of this weakness, it says here that the weak euro (in terms of gold) the last fourteen years has been the unsung driver of slower growth for it inhibiting investment, but the main point here is that if Greece in the most basic sense enjoyed lower rates of taxation (this includes low government spending which is by definition a tax irrespective of whether it's in "deficit" or "surplus") and a stable euro, its economy would be fine. And default on government debt would not be part of the discussion.
The only problem with the above is that good policies aren't presently the norm for Greece. Not only is the euro weak and unstable, but global entities like the IMF are calling for tax hikes to help the country pay down its debt. Ignored is that tax hikes, for penalizing work, generally work against actual economic growth. Greece would be much less likely to default if the policy from its outside minders and the socialists on the inside was focused on reducing the government's burden on the economy.
What about the euro? Is the common currency the problem, and if so, would Greece be wise to leave it? The previous question is the comically obtuse equivalent of asking if Mississippi and West Virginia should exit the dollar in favor of the MS Peso and WV Ringgit. Companies and jobs are a function of investment, so imagine how much more impoverished both states would be (in a relative, American sense) if the dollar were no longer the currency in use. Greece is no different. If it exits the euro, it will be much harder for the increasingly isolated country to attract investors eager to hold income streams that pay out "drachma."
Of course, the above explains why Greece will never leave the euro even if it leaves the euro. The reality is that the country's debt is denominated in euros, not to mention that its best companies will only be able to attain financing in euros. No reasonable investor is going to invest in debt that once again pays out "drachma," and this underscores yet again why Greece will never leave the euro even if it returns to the drachma as its national currency.
What about the struggling banks in Greece, and runs on same? What can't be forgotten is that businesses never just run out of cash. Ever. What happens is that some thought to be poorly operated run out of credibility with a lack of credit the logical next step. It's hard to say, but the mere possibility that Greece will exit the euro for something much less desirable presumably has depositors eager to hold that which is credible, is globally accepted, but that the Greek government is seeking to restrict movement of. In short, Greek banks haven't run out of cash as much as they're operating in a country led by leaders who lack a clue. Greek banks are the victims of the government's cluelessness, the latter is sapping their credibility, but their struggles presumably speak to why Greece will never leave the euro. Eventually even socialists are mugged by reality.
As the penultimate paragraph makes plain, it's ultimately all about the banks. It always is. Nothing against the banks, but it sure would be nice if a few big ones would be allowed to fail based on their exposure to Greek debt. Not only would failure ultimately be healthy for the banking system, but for a few implosions serving as a reminder that "investment" in government debt isn't a one-way street, this failure would be very grand for the global economy.
|
|
|
SuperTopo on the Web
|
Let us know!