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Trump
climber
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Jun 13, 2018 - 04:56pm PT
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No unnecessary risks
The chain of these dependencies starts with our choice. It’s a risky thing choosing - you might choose to go climbing.
But when faced with the risk of choosing, and the risk of not choosing, we prefer the risk of choosing. Preferring the risk of a choice is the birthright of these choose-y brains we’ve got. Evolution might quibble with our characterization of what’s necessary, and much as we seem to think it’s our analysis that counts, reality sometimes differs.
idiotic parts leading to endless shitty opinions and misconceptions
..
I have lost several mentors and friend over the last few years. I know they are far more offended when I post here
And yet here we are choosing to post. Glad to see that you’re willing to add your (your word here was shitty, as derived from idiocy) opinion, and, in the face of other people’s opinions, you haven’t shamed yourself into the silence of not choosing.
Sounds like these guys were in the low likelihood where they fell with their abilities.
In retrospect, the likelihood that these unique guys, in this unique situation, would fall is 100%. The idea that we awesome surviving humans can second guess reality to the extent that we can say, in retrospect, that there was a low likelihood in them falling, when reality has already ruled unequivocally in favor of them falling, is just a reflection of what some might call our shitty human idiocy, but I’d be inclined to just call human. We just don’t know the reasons that led to this 100% event. But when reality differs from what we believe, we don’t say that we don’t understand, we just continue to believe in our own understanding over reality.
I’m glad that these two fine men were willing to choose too, to act, to believe that what they believed was true, regardless of how much that pains us in retrospect. That beat the alternative for them, and it beats the alternatives for us, too.
My sincerest condolences to all, especially those who are privileged to be their family and friends.
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j-tree
Big Wall climber
Typewriters and Ledges
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Jun 14, 2018 - 09:45am PT
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You understand likelihood even less than context.
I mean, it is Trump posting...
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Karl Baba
Trad climber
Yosemite, Ca
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Jun 19, 2018 - 07:44pm PT
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Risk
I've done a ton of free soloing but taking motorcycle treks through the Himalaya felt way more dicey and broke my leg doing that.
While free soloing rocks have come down numerous times and almost taken me out by close margins but either karma or luck always saved me.
So many many close calls on safe territory and dangerous territory, and not sure if the dangerous territory had the most dangerous near misses. Rocks come off, come down, storms....
Worst accidents were close calls too, but they swung the other way. Should have been safe. Plugged in a cam two moves after a bolt ladder on Zodiac and pulled off a 2000 lb block on myself. Cut through my daisy chain and over 1/2 the rope cut through, broke my arm, should've been A1 and the safest part of the route.
My personal view can't be proven. There's a perfection to things, however imperfect it seems. It's not reward and punishment. Life goes on beyond life and sometimes you have an appointment elsewhere. If you're injured, pay attention to the healing process and everything you can now do that you couldn't when you were consumed with climbing.
I'm sure the guys who fell are still on a great adventure. The ones left behind are likely suffering, as we don't have proof this rock is the only awesome place to live, and we miss loved ones even if they move to another state.
Don't feel obliged to suffer because someone dies. Better to wish them the best and highest journey. If you hurt anyway, ok to embrace feeling it, there's love in that.
Just 2 cents.
Wishing everyone Peace and Love
Baba
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fear
Ice climber
hartford, ct
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Jun 19, 2018 - 08:08pm PT
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Nice comments Karl...
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zBrown
Ice climber
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Jun 19, 2018 - 08:38pm PT
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Goin' down the road feelin' bad.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Jun 19, 2018 - 11:39pm PT
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Meh.
I'm goin' where the water tastes like wine...
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phylp
Trad climber
Upland, CA
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Jun 20, 2018 - 10:51am PT
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I appreciate your words, Karl.
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Gnome Ofthe Diabase
climber
Out Of Bed
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Jun 20, 2018 - 10:59am PT
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. Once in a while, you get shown the light; In the strangest of places - if you look at it right.
`RE:]Baba!{
I find myself caught up short, thinking of all those who had heard but did not listen, heard their old bones scrapping together, bone on bone, as if to say you've stood atop enough . . .
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Trump
climber
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Jun 20, 2018 - 12:39pm PT
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Should have been safe.
Exactly. We were in danger, but we tell ourselves that we should be safe. It’s hard to operate any other way.
Even in retrospect, when the danger is staring us straight in the face, when we’ve suffered the consequences of the danger that we didn’t see coming, that we didn’t even understand was there, we still prefer to believe that we understood, and that we should have been safe, rather than admitting that we just didn’t understand the danger, and that we might not understand the dangers that we will face in the future as well as we’d like to understand them, or would need to understand them, in order to avoid them.
It might not be the truth, but it’s the best belief we can manage.
Sounds like these guys were in the low likelihood where they fell with their abilities.
I’d be interested to understand, with respect to the exact danger that these men faced, what effect did their abilities have on the likelihood of that danger affecting them? How did (or should) their abilities protect them from that exact danger - rockfall or inattention or gear failure or whatever it is that you’ve concluded was the exact source of the risk that killed them?
To me, it seems like their abilities are what put them there in the first place, same as us. But the way that you see it - was the risk, that was mitigated by their abilities, something that was outside of their control (rockfall, a bee sting?) or was it something that was under their control (either physical or mental - attention, strength, judgment?) and that their abilities did not protect them from? Do we know even that?
What were the exact values and variables that affected this outcome - the precedents and antecedents and constraints and connections that determined this outcome? Do you know? And if not, how do you know that their abilities mitigated that risk, or even had anything at all to do with it?
Much as we might like to believe, moving forward, that it’s our abilities that protect us from outcomes like this, we might find that we’re wrong, and that it’s our abilities that drive us into them.
You understand likelihood even less than context.
Fair enough. In retrospect, what was the likelihood of this particular event happening when it did? 1 in a million? 1 in a billion? There was only this one unique event. It was 1 in 1. If you want to imagine that all the variables and their values of this unique event were exactly the same as the other 999,999,999 times which you’ve imagined that it didn’t happen, human enough. I think we’re just too skeered to admit that we don’t know what the difference between this event and those other imagined events was, because admitting that would interfere with our motivation to act in the future.
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McHale's Navy
Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
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Jun 20, 2018 - 07:07pm PT
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I just couldn't face reading the Outside/Caldwell article. I scanned down it and it seemed so long....so much time. While I was at the end I just started reading it backwards and climbed up the article. That worked!
The only strange part was the author saying 'only' 31 people have died on El Cap. Well, it's largely only accessible to people that have at least a few skills, so 31 is quite a few, considering they are largely at a fairly elite skill level. The last 2 deaths were certainly climbers at an elite level.
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AKDOG
Mountain climber
Anchorage, AK
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Jun 21, 2018 - 10:22am PT
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The conditional probability (P) of a future event happening is affected with the number of times that event has happened in the past given the same circumstance?
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JLP
Social climber
The internet
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Jun 21, 2018 - 12:24pm PT
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Correct. It informs... It's an illusion, and a popular one for risk takers to cling to.
A sense of omnipotence fits the climber ego well. As we develop our special skills, we can fly over all and see everything. Yeah right.
AC is correctly referring to all climbers, all situations, all abilities - because history shows basically the same accidents and reasons for them apply to everyone.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Jun 21, 2018 - 11:12pm PT
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If a tree falls in the forest and no one records it, did it actually happen?
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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Jun 22, 2018 - 08:32am PT
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Baba! +1
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Bad Climber
Trad climber
The Lawless Border Regions
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Jun 22, 2018 - 11:47am PT
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Interesting discussion. Re. TC's questioning of their speed climbing: Didn't he take a ONE HUNDRED FOOT fall during rehearsals? Or was that just a rumor? If he did whip like that, I think we have all the proof we need that this game has jumped the shark. TC said that he's off the speed game. I hope that's true. Looks like he's got a great wife and two kids who need him. Shaving a few minutes off the Nose record isn't worth more than time with his family.
BAd
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John Mac
Trad climber
Breckenridge, CO
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Jun 22, 2018 - 12:48pm PT
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In the thread earlier I recall JL saying something along the lines that that the 100 footer was in hiking terrain, the stovelegs...
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Bad Climber
Trad climber
The Lawless Border Regions
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Jun 22, 2018 - 04:53pm PT
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Huh. So on "easy street" where the like of TC and AH NEVER slip. There you go. I really feel for these guys families and Brett Quinn. Just ain't worth it, folks.
BAd
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Clatterstan
Trad climber
High Desert, Ca
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Jun 24, 2018 - 09:05pm PT
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Yesterday, there was a memorial service for Tim Klein at Grace Chapel in Lancaster, California comprised of Klein's family, friends, and former students. Among the speakers at the memorial was Kevin Prince, who was climbing with Klein and Wells on June 2, said Klein was one of the best climbing partners anyone could ask for.
"On the morning of the accident we were not attempting to set any records or push any limits. Our primary mission was to have fun with good friends in one of the world's most spectacular settings," Prince said. "We were, essentially, on a casual trail run up a favorite mountain."
As reported in the Antelope Valley Press, Sunday, June 24, 2018.
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