Discussion Topic |
|
This thread has been locked |
rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
|
|
|
Nov 23, 2016 - 09:47am PT
|
A broad carbon taxing Scheme is the wet dream of scientists who see a funding conduit for endless studies. Some of these scientists are multi generational and are rightly concerned for their progeny who they encouraged to join the family business.
|
|
wilbeer
Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
|
|
|
Nov 23, 2016 - 09:51am PT
|
Cling to that Rick. It will be nice for you and yours not hearing NASA announce the hottest year ever ,every year.
About sick of hearing about hypocrites .
|
|
dirtbag
climber
|
|
|
Nov 23, 2016 - 10:01am PT
|
If Clinton was elected, NASA climate funding wouldn't be in jeopardy.
It will be burned down, however, just like you wished.
|
|
eeyonkee
Trad climber
Golden, CO
|
|
|
Nov 23, 2016 - 11:23am PT
|
So, my (and Malemute's) posts have focused on getting an agreement on the fact that human-caused climate change is real. If half of the American people don't even believe that, it's hard to even start to have useful arguments on what we can do. Once you DO concede that it is happening, doing nothing is clearly not an appropriate response.
It seems to me that there are two categories of response; mitigating the global warming effect itself, and mitigating the repercussions. To be perfectly honest, I'm kind of a pessimist that we can do much about the first, although we have to try. If you deny the science, you greatly hurt you ability to appropriately respond to the repercussions.
Most of civilization lives near the coast. There will be lots of displacements of humans from the very near coast to higher locales. There will be disruptions in fisheries as the acidifying oceans kill off shallow water fish. There will be a bunch of this kind of stuff. It's going to cost trillions. We are going to have to weigh the after-the-fact cost with the prevention cost, knowing that the preventative measures may or may not work.
I write risk assessment software for a living. Setting the proper weight for the likely effectiveness of the preventative measures in light of their costs seems like one of the harder terms to get right. It's going to take really good science.
|
|
dirtbag
climber
|
|
|
Nov 23, 2016 - 11:52am PT
|
Good thing she lost, then.
NASA funding should always be in jeopardy, otherwise its just entitlement.
DMT
You know what I mean. Cmon.
|
|
eeyonkee
Trad climber
Golden, CO
|
|
|
Nov 23, 2016 - 12:00pm PT
|
Hey, so I hadn't really thought so much about this problem from a risk assessment standpoint. Duh! It is exactly a risk assessment problem -- and people are wired not to properly assess risk when the consequences are in the future.
I've been involved with writing risk assessment software for the oil and gas pipeline industry for the last 16 years. The most basic equation in risk assessment is Risk = Likelihood x Consequence. With pipelines, when they are within high population or environmentally-sensitive areas, they will typically have a very high Consequence (of failure); much higher say than somewhere in the Mojave desert. High risk on the Likelihood side is typically the result of being in areas in which idiots are likely to drill or run into the pipeline or where older pipe is in a highly-corrosive environment or where the pipeline crosses the San Andreas fault or something.
From a risk assessment standpoint, consequence is typically the side of the basic equation that can be defined most accurately. Likelihood is always the tougher of the two to predict. In the case of climate change, the likelihood side of the equation is obvious to the people who study the problem. The remaining questions are really all about the timing and extent. It is not to the general public.
|
|
August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
|
|
|
Nov 23, 2016 - 12:39pm PT
|
Let me start off by saying that it is highly improbable that this could happen because of the checks and balances in the science community. Having said that. Let's say that essentially all climate models that predict catastrophic human-caused global warming depended on this "constant" -- you know, values like 3.47 or 0.000037. Now let's say that the guy who came up with that constant suddenly realized that he was supposed to be using "metric". If I, as a climate modeler depended on the value of this constant for my model going one way or the other; I would concede that I was wrong after finding out about this new piece of information.
They have climate records that go back thousands of years in time. They have run the computer model against historical records to see if the models can recreate the changes that happened in the past. If the model was that far off, they wouldn't be able to do that.
|
|
August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
|
|
|
Nov 23, 2016 - 12:47pm PT
|
The idea that a carbon tax will "trickle down" to the poor is absurd
Economically and technically it wouldn't be hard at all to have some form of a trickle down carbon tax.
You could, for instance, raise the gas tax (over some period of time) to 2 or 3 dollars a gallon. You then take all of this revenue and divide it by the number of Americans that have a social security number (or maybe you would want to limit it to those over 18), and write them all checks every 3 or six months (or tack it onto their tax return). So a poor person who doesn't own a car, or is frugal in car driving gets a subsidy and the person who puts a lot of mileage on a big SUV loses out.
Trucks would contribute a large amount of revenue. The income a poor person would get from this would be significant compared to their overall income. For middle calls and above it would not. So this would be progressive in the same way that sales tax and flat tax are regressive.
|
|
eeyonkee
Trad climber
Golden, CO
|
|
|
Nov 23, 2016 - 12:56pm PT
|
From the first link of the last post by Malemute.
... which is in turn influenced by the underlying strength of the THC. When the THC is strong, this warms the North Atlantic (increasing the N-S SST gradient), whereas when the THC is weak, this cools the North Atlantic (decreasing the N-S SST gradient). The Atlantic THC exhibits natural, ...
As somebody from Boulder, I find this quite interesting...I had no idea.
|
|
Dave
Mountain climber
the ANTI-fresno
|
|
|
Nov 25, 2016 - 06:31am PT
|
"Save water by taking shorter showers and abstaining from washing your car."
This guy must not actually get a water bill. Shorter showers is a BS answer.
Rip up your lawn and you save water. My water bill ranges from 15-25 thousand gallons in the summer to 2000-3000 gallons in the winter. You can guess the difference isn't from longer showers in the summer...
|
|
eeyonkee
Trad climber
Golden, CO
|
|
|
Nov 25, 2016 - 01:31pm PT
|
More good links Malemute! Appreciate your efforts. This thread is becoming a good compilation of relevant links. It's educational to sit down (with a beer (or two -- oil cans even) or not) and peruse them.
|
|
Fat Dad
Trad climber
Los Angeles, CA
|
|
|
Nov 25, 2016 - 10:06pm PT
|
TGT2, how does your brain muster the sufficient spark to make your lungs work, because it certainly hasn't generated an intelligent thought on this thread.
|
|
Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
|
|
|
Nov 27, 2016 - 05:18pm PT
|
what is it about internet forums that causes otherwise intelligent people to resort to ad hominem arguments?
There are the types who have no argument, no rebuttal, and no understanding of the issues, so no recourse but to direct their posts against the poster.
There are the types who feel they have to react against the (intentionally) provoking posts (which may also be irrelevant), posts which need no response (indeed, they elicit response, and not through the relevance to the topic at hand).
If some member of the STForum community wants to post silliness in an effort to provoke, why not let them, and leave it alone. The posts speak for themselves, need no further comment.
|
|
Chaz
Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
|
|
|
Nov 27, 2016 - 05:34pm PT
|
That's exactly why more people aren't concerned about climate change.
Malamute is a perfect example of what is turning people off. Never misses a chance to hurl an insult.
Multiply Malemute by a thousand, spread them around the country, and people just tune out.
And you wonder how a revenue-neutral carbon tax initiative won't pass in Washington State of all places.
|
|
Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
|
|
|
Nov 27, 2016 - 06:12pm PT
|
So Chaz, your argument is that because people are unpleasant, you won't listen to their arguments even if they are good ones? If we were all polite, and used language that wasn't interpreted by others as intimidating, then we might actually start to make progress on climate change?
Interesting that you would suggest this avenue for making progress.
For those you might point to on oneside of the discussion, there seem to be an equal number on the other side... perhaps both sides should find a way to be polite.
|
|
Chaz
Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
|
|
|
Nov 27, 2016 - 06:21pm PT
|
I do know that if you're selling something, it helps to be pleasant.
Especially if what you're selling, you're keeping secret.
|
|
wilbeer
Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
|
|
|
Nov 27, 2016 - 06:34pm PT
|
A new term comes to mind ,"weekend denier" might just fit.
Is that insulting?
Or more just to the point,the evidence is in,really.Malemute is correct and has put up with just the same.
Climate Change certainly turns some off,oh well,the problem does not care .
|
|
Fat Dad
Trad climber
Los Angeles, CA
|
|
|
Nov 27, 2016 - 06:36pm PT
|
Ed, you are correct. Next time, I will listen to the better angels of my nature.
|
|
Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
|
|
|
Nov 27, 2016 - 06:59pm PT
|
Especially if what you're selling, you're keeping secret.
The whole point of the discussion of the science of climate change, and the consequences of that change and of the possible mitigations, is it to have it in the open
Certainly all the R&D that the USG does is done in the open, every detail.
|
|
jgill
Boulder climber
The high prairie of southern Colorado
|
|
|
Nov 27, 2016 - 07:03pm PT
|
At Miami Beach the ocean level is rising 1/3 inch per year and accelerating.
Probably best not to retire there. At least on land.
|
|
|
SuperTopo on the Web
|
Let us know!