Huge 8.9 quake plus tsunami - Japan

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golsen

Social climber
kennewick, wa
Mar 14, 2011 - 07:34pm PT
Klimmer,

This is very bad. I can only imagine that it will top 3 Mile Island and Chernobyl at this point.

We have to stop this as much as we can ASAP.

I am sure now that you have made your recommendation the Japanese will take it to heart that they should put an end to this ASAP.

Highly improbable that it will be worse than Chernobyl.. It was already worse than TMI.....
happiegrrrl

Trad climber
New York, NY
Mar 14, 2011 - 07:42pm PT
Would those who might like to take a moment, upon reading this post, send thoughts of hope, strength and comfort to our fellow earthmates in Japan who are struggling to deal with this tragedy?






























































































































































































peace
TGT

Social climber
So Cal
Mar 14, 2011 - 07:45pm PT
Too, your earlier point Golsen, We've sold specialty pumps to both the WMD facility of which you speak and have a Nuke power plant as a regular customer.

Two completely different attitudes, and the Nuke plan is far more demanding.

The sound that was possibly mistaken for an explosion and a spike in radiation would be consistent with a PRV (pressure relief valve) popping. I've never been around one on a multi megawatt steam system but one a thousand times smaller is loud enough to scare the daylights out of you if you aren't expecting it.
golsen

Social climber
kennewick, wa
Mar 14, 2011 - 07:50pm PT

No nuclear accident in the history of man has been caused by nature. They are man made events start to finish. Sorry but nuclear engineers simply do not get to blame mother nature.

DMT

I am just curious. If a climber gets hit by natural rockfall/landslide it must obviously be a man-made accident?

corniss chopper

climber
breaking the speed of gravity
Mar 14, 2011 - 07:52pm PT
Come on, God, just a little help. It's all I'm asking.


:quote from the movie Armageddon -character Harry Stamper prays in a moment
of crises as he tries to save the Earth.

We can bet that the engineers at Fukushima have also been praying for a lucky break.




HighTraverse

Trad climber
Bay Area
Mar 14, 2011 - 07:52pm PT
I do not know why it has taken so long to get the Diesel supply for the EDG's back into operation.
The emergency generators did run out of fuel due to tsunami damage to the above ground storage tanks.
How the heck would they get more diesel fuel into the plant within 8 or even 48 hours with all the destruction? They'd have to repair the fuel tank damage first anyway.

Failure Mode Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) was in it's infancy when these plants were designed in the 60's. Design service life was 25 years. Reactor 1 was commissioned 40 years ago.
Reactor 1 was due to be shut down this month.
It's clear that regulatory oversight needs to be increased, especially for existing plants at the end of their design life. They're going to have to be retro fitted to meet modern safety requirements.
For those still considering new nuclear plants, they're going to have to re-visit their FMECAs and run the Return On Investment numbers again.

Why is information from Japan so hard to come by?
I can think of several reasons.
They've got a lot more important things to worry about than keeping NPR, the NYTimes and FOX news informed.
They appear to be keeping the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) informed. This is their legal obligation and also benefits all of us since IAEA is less likely to twist the facts.
They're very much running on educated guesses about what's really going on.

I just heard on PBS News Hour the question asked of a nuclear safety expert: Are they closer to the 3 Mile Island or the Chernobyl scenario?
Answer: They are worse than but closer to 3 mile island, a long way from Chernobyl. And due to the different fundamental reactor design, the Chernobyl scenario is very unlikely even in the worst case. Chernobyl was a fundamentally unsafe design.
He also said it will be 2 or 3 more days before the endpoint can be estimated. e.g. the next 2-3 days will be critical to the final outcome.
MisterE

Social climber
Cinderella Story, Outa Nowhere
Mar 14, 2011 - 08:11pm PT
A third explosion:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110314/ap_on_bi_ge/as_japan_earthquake_nuclear_crisis
TGT

Social climber
So Cal
Mar 14, 2011 - 08:19pm PT


Someone will get a Pulitzer for this one, and wish they never had.
Crimpergirl

Sport climber
Boulder, Colorado!
Mar 14, 2011 - 08:25pm PT
Agreed TGT.

I see people like her and wonder what she was doing and thinking last week. How could she even fathom where she'd be now.

Truly heartbreaking and she is only one of 1,000s and 1,000s.
golsen

Social climber
kennewick, wa
Mar 14, 2011 - 08:29pm PT
That is an amazing photo. The destruction in the background and the tragedy on her face. I hope that they are spared from a severe Nuclear Incident.
Crimpergirl

Sport climber
Boulder, Colorado!
Mar 14, 2011 - 08:31pm PT
And that she is alone. With no food. No shelter. No water. Not even an easy way to walk to...who knows where. Absolute annihilation everywhere.

I can't even imagine.
TGT

Social climber
So Cal
Mar 14, 2011 - 08:49pm PT
As far as them refusing assistance, there may not be a need or the ability to integrate more medical teams, but two C-17s with SAR teams and equipment left non stop from Andrews MD on the 12th with aerialport units to set up for incoming traffic shortly after.

http://www.af.mil/news/story.asp?id=123246602

Also U-2s

http://www.af.mil/news/story.asp?id=123246533

golsen

Social climber
kennewick, wa
Mar 14, 2011 - 08:57pm PT
Just got this email from somone in the Nuke Business. It does a good job of explaining whats going down without the fear mongering. However, it appears as though it was written yesterday...

Below is a summary [for the general public] on the Fukushima situation prepared by Dr Josef Oehmen, a research scientist at MIT, in Boston.
He is a PhD Scientist, whose father has also extensive experience in Germany’s nuclear industry.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
What happened at Fukushima
I will try to summarize the main facts. The earthquake that hit Japan was 7 times more powerful than the worst earthquake the nuclear power plant was built for (the Richter scale works logarithmically; the difference between the 8.2 that the plants were built for and the 8.9 that happened is 7 times, not 0.7). So the first hooray for Japanese engineering, everything held up.
When the earthquake hit with 8.9, the nuclear reactors all went into automatic shutdown. Within seconds after the earthquake started, the control rods had been inserted into the core and nuclear chain reaction of the uranium stopped. Now, the cooling system has to carry away the residual heat. The residual heat load is about 3% of the heat load under normal operating conditions.
The earthquake destroyed the external power supply of the nuclear reactor. That is one of the most serious accidents for a nuclear power plant, and accordingly, a “plant black out” receives a lot of attention when designing backup systems. The power is needed to keep the coolant pumps working. Since the power plant had been shut down, it cannot produce any electricity by itself any more.
Things were going well for an hour. One set of multiple sets of emergency Diesel power generators kicked in and provided the electricity that was needed. Then the Tsunami came, much bigger than people had expected when building the power plant (see above, factor 7). The tsunami took out all multiple sets of backup Diesel generators.
When designing a nuclear power plant, engineers follow a philosophy called “Defense of Depth”. That means that you first build everything to withstand the worst catastrophe you can imagine, and then design the plant in such a way that it can still handle one system failure (that you thought could never happen) after the other. A tsunami taking out all backup power in one swift strike is such a scenario. The last line of defense is putting everything into the third containment (see above), that will keep everything, whatever the mess, control rods in our out, core molten or not, inside the reactor.
When the diesel generators were gone, the reactor operators switched to emergency battery power. The batteries were designed as one of the backups to the backups, to provide power for cooling the core for 8 hours. And they did.
Within the 8 hours, another power source had to be found and connected to the power plant. The power grid was down due to the earthquake. The diesel generators were destroyed by the tsunami. So mobile diesel generators were trucked in.
This is where things started to go seriously wrong. The external power generators could not be connected to the power plant (the plugs did not fit). So after the batteries ran out, the residual heat could not be carried away any more.
At this point the plant operators begin to follow emergency procedures that are in place for a “loss of cooling event”. It is again a step along the “Depth of Defense” lines. The power to the cooling systems should never have failed completely, but it did, so they “retreat” to the next line of defense. All of this, however shocking it seems to us, is part of the day-to-day training you go through as an operator, right through to managing a core meltdown.
It was at this stage that people started to talk about core meltdown. Because at the end of the day, if cooling cannot be restored, the core will eventually melt (after hours or days), and the last line of defense, the core catcher and third containment, would come into play.
But the goal at this stage was to manage the core while it was heating up, and ensure that the first containment (the Zircaloy tubes that contains the nuclear fuel), as well as the second containment (our pressure cooker) remain intact and operational for as long as possible, to give the engineers time to fix the cooling systems.
Because cooling the core is such a big deal, the reactor has a number of cooling systems, each in multiple versions (the reactor water cleanup system, the decay heat removal, the reactor core isolating cooling, the standby liquid cooling system, and the emergency core cooling system). Which one failed when or did not fail is not clear at this point in time.
So imagine our pressure cooker on the stove, heat on low, but on. The operators use whatever cooling system capacity they have to get rid of as much heat as possible, but the pressure starts building up. The priority now is to maintain integrity of the first containment (keep temperature of the fuel rods below 2200°C), as well as the second containment, the pressure cooker. In order to maintain integrity of the pressure cooker (the second containment), the pressure has to be released from time to time. Because the ability to do that in an emergency is so important, the reactor has 11 pressure release valves. The operators now started venting steam from time to time to control the pressure. The temperature at this stage was about 550°C.
This is when the reports about “radiation leakage” starting coming in. I believe I explained above why venting the steam is theoretically the same as releasing radiation into the environment, but why it was and is not dangerous. The radioactive nitrogen as well as the noble gases do not pose a threat to human health.
At some stage during this venting, the explosion occurred. The explosion took place outside of the third containment (our “last line of defense”), and the reactor building. Remember that the reactor building has no function in keeping the radioactivity contained. It is not entirely clear yet what has happened, but this is the likely scenario: The operators decided to vent the steam from the pressure vessel not directly into the environment, but into the space between the third containment and the reactor building (to give the radioactivity in the steam more time to subside). The problem is that at the high temperatures that the core had reached at this stage, water molecules can “disassociate” into oxygen and hydrogen – an explosive mixture. And it did explode, outside the third containment, damaging the reactor building around. It was that sort of explosion, but inside the pressure vessel (because it was badly designed and not managed properly by the operators) that lead to the explosion of Chernobyl. This was never a risk at Fukushima. The problem of hydrogen-oxygen formation is one of the biggies when you design a power plant (if you are not Soviet, that is), so the reactor is build and operated in a way it cannot happen inside the containment. It happened outside, which was not intended but a possible scenario and OK, because it did not pose a risk for the containment.
So the pressure was under control, as steam was vented. Now, if you keep boiling your pot, the problem is that the water level will keep falling and falling. The core is covered by several meters of water in order to allow for some time to pass (hours, days) before it gets exposed. Once the rods start to be exposed at the top, the exposed parts will reach the critical temperature of 2200 °C after about 45 minutes. This is when the first containment, the Zircaloy tube, would fail.
And this started to happen. The cooling could not be restored before there was some (very limited, but still) damage to the casing of some of the fuel. The nuclear material itself was still intact, but the surrounding Zircaloy shell had started melting. What happened now is that some of the byproducts of the uranium decay – radioactive Cesium and Iodine – started to mix with the steam. The big problem, uranium, was still under control, because the uranium oxide rods were good until 3000 °C. It is confirmed that a very small amount of Cesium and Iodine was measured in the steam that was released into the atmosphere.
It seems this was the “go signal” for a major plan B. The small amounts of Cesium that were measured told the operators that the first containment on one of the rods somewhere was about to give. The Plan A had been to restore one of the regular cooling systems to the core. Why that failed is unclear. One plausible explanation is that the tsunami also took away / polluted all the clean water needed for the regular cooling systems.
The water used in the cooling system is very clean, demineralized (like distilled) water. The reason to use pure water is the above mentioned activation by the neutrons from the Uranium: Pure water does not get activated much, so stays practically radioactive-free. Dirt or salt in the water will absorb the neutrons quicker, becoming more radioactive. This has no effect whatsoever on the core – it does not care what it is cooled by. But it makes life more difficult for the operators and mechanics when they have to deal with activated (i.e. slightly radioactive) water.
But Plan A had failed – cooling systems down or additional clean water unavailable – so Plan B came into effect. This is what it looks like happened:
In order to prevent a core meltdown, the operators started to use sea water to cool the core. I am not quite sure if they flooded our pressure cooker with it (the second containment), or if they flooded the third containment, immersing the pressure cooker. But that is not relevant for us.
The point is that the nuclear fuel has now been cooled down. Because the chain reaction has been stopped a long time ago, there is only very little residual heat being produced now. The large amount of cooling water that has been used is sufficient to take up that heat. Because it is a lot of water, the core does not produce sufficient heat any more to produce any significant pressure. Also, boric acid has been added to the seawater. Boric acid is “liquid control rod”. Whatever decay is still going on, the Boron will capture the neutrons and further speed up the cooling down of the core.
The plant came close to a core meltdown. Here is the worst-case scenario that was avoided: If the seawater could not have been used for treatment, the operators would have continued to vent the water steam to avoid pressure buildup. The third containment would then have been completely sealed to allow the core meltdown to happen without releasing radioactive material. After the meltdown, there would have been a waiting period for the intermediate radioactive materials to decay inside the reactor, and all radioactive particles to settle on a surface inside the containment. The cooling system would have been restored eventually, and the molten core cooled to a manageable temperature. The containment would have been cleaned up on the inside. Then a messy job of removing the molten core from the containment would have begun, packing the (now solid again) fuel bit by bit into transportation containers to be shipped to processing plants. Depending on the damage, the block of the plant would then either be repaired or dismantled.
Now, where does that leave us?
• The plant is safe now and will stay safe.
• Japan is looking at an INES Level 4 Accident: Nuclear accident with local consequences. That is bad for the company that owns the plant, but not for anyone else.
• Some radiation was released when the pressure vessel was vented. All radioactive isotopes from the activated steam have gone (decayed). A very small amount of Cesium was released, as well as Iodine. If you were sitting on top of the plants’ chimney when they were venting, you should probably give up smoking to return to your former life expectancy. The Cesium and Iodine isotopes were carried out to the sea and will never be seen again.
• There was some limited damage to the first containment. That means that some amounts of radioactive Cesium and Iodine will also be released into the cooling water, but no Uranium or other nasty stuff (the Uranium oxide does not “dissolve” in the water). There are facilities for treating the cooling water inside the third containment. The radioactive Cesium and Iodine will be removed there and eventually stored as radioactive waste in terminal storage.
• The seawater used as cooling water will be activated to some degree. Because the control rods are fully inserted, the Uranium chain reaction is not happening. That means the “main” nuclear reaction is not happening, thus not contributing to the activation. The intermediate radioactive materials (Cesium and Iodine) are also almost gone at this stage, because the Uranium decay was stopped a long time ago. This further reduces the activation. The bottom line is that there will be some low level of activation of the seawater, which will also be removed by the treatment facilities.
• The seawater will then be replaced over time with the “normal” cooling water
• The reactor core will then be dismantled and transported to a processing facility, just like during a regular fuel change.
• Fuel rods and the entire plant will be checked for potential damage. This will take about 4-5 years.
• The safety systems on all Japanese plants will be upgraded to withstand a 9.0 earthquake and tsunami (or worse)
• I believe the most significant problem will be a prolonged power shortage. About half of Japan’s nuclear reactors will probably have to be inspected, reducing the nation’s power generating capacity by 15%. This will probably be covered by running gas power plants that are usually only used for peak loads to cover some of the base load as well. That will increase your electricity bill, as well as lead to potential power shortages during peak demand, in Japan.

S.Leeper

Social climber
Ft. Useless, Virginia
Mar 14, 2011 - 10:04pm PT
It didn't take long for some dick to make an insensitive joke

http://www.suntimes.com/entertainment/4319061-417/aflac-drops-gilbert-gottfried-after-he-tweets-jokes-about-japan-crisis.html
dirtbag

climber
Mar 14, 2011 - 10:06pm PT
A certain number of people have always been and will always be dicks.
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
mammoth lakes ca
Mar 14, 2011 - 10:13pm PT
Aflac has a conscious...? Now that's a funny joke..
bluering

Trad climber
Santa Clara, CA
Mar 14, 2011 - 10:15pm PT
Good update, Wendell. I think they need help. And I think we should offer it, and provide it.

What's really the sad part of this whole thing is the humility and the pride of the Japanese, simultaneously. They are such a fabulous culture that is uterrly resilient. They get slapped in the face by mother nature, and yet they show their humanity and their historic strength of character.

But the the pic of the chic crying really hits home. God bless them. Maybe that's what makes them so unique culturally. It's an old culture that has victimized and been victims. Weird for such a small nation.
HighTraverse

Trad climber
Bay Area
Mar 14, 2011 - 10:32pm PT
Now, where does that leave us?
• The plant is safe now and will stay safe.

This is now out of date: 2 reactor building explosions later (reactor #3 and now #2)

BBC 1 hour ago
The blast occurred at reactor 2 at the Fukushima Daiichi plant, which engineers had been trying to stabilise after two other reactors exploded.

The protective chamber around the radioactive core of reactor 2 has been damaged and radiation levels near the plant have risen, officials say.

The situation is not yet under control

happiegrrl
I'm constantly thinking about the people of Japan. The entire country. For those Japanese over 70 years old, this is the second major catastrophe in their lifetimes.
It will take years for the national psyche to heal.

You can donate to the American Red Cross Japan quake relief fund on iTunes (or many other ways)
TGT

Social climber
So Cal
Mar 14, 2011 - 10:36pm PT
I caught an interview on the radio with the CEO of Aflac Saturday.

They write 30-40% of the health and life insurance policies in Japan and had contributed about 1 million US to the Japanese equivalent of the Red Cross and were gearing up procedures for accelerated claims payments where they knew there was no likelihood that a body would be found.

Yeah, Gottfried really stepped in it.
golsen

Social climber
kennewick, wa
Mar 14, 2011 - 10:56pm PT
HT,
I agree. Not out of the woods yet.
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