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dirtbag
climber
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Oct 22, 2012 - 10:23am PT
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Hey NWO!
For you:
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Oct 22, 2012 - 11:26am PT
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Every week, more new research comes in. I keep an eye on the Arctic, so pieces like this one just published in Geology stand out:
Twentieth-century warming revives the world’s northernmost lake
Although recent ecological changes are widespread in Arctic lakes, it remains unclear whether they are more strongly associated with climate warming or the deposition of reactive nitrogen (Nr) from anthropogenic sources. We developed a 3500-yr paleolimnological record from the world’s northernmost lake to explore this question. Microfossils indicate that siliceous diatoms and chrysophytes were abundant initially, but disappeared 2400 yr ago in concert with Neoglacial cooling. Microfossils reappear in 20th-century sediments and reach unprecedented concentrations in sediments deposited after ca. A.D. 1980, tracking increasing summer temperatures in the absence of evidence for atmospheric nutrient subsidies. These results indicate that current warming in northern Greenland is unprecedented in the context of the past 2400 yr, and that climate change alone is responsible for the marked biological changes observed.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Oct 22, 2012 - 11:30am PT
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And just out in Quaternary Science Reviews,
Maximum late Holocene extent of the western Greenland Ice Sheet during the late 20th century
The pattern of Greenland Ice Sheet margin change during the 20th century is variable. Large-scale retreat of marine-outlet glaciers contrasts with the often-negligible retreat observed along land-terminating margins of the ice sheet. We reconstruct a chronology of ice-margin change for two land-terminating ice margins in western Greenland using radiocarbon and 10Be exposure dating. Our results indicate that two land-terminating lobes attained their maximum late Holocene position in the late 20th century. This contrasts with the nearby marine-terminating Jakobshavn Isbræ, which achieved a maximum late Holocene position during the Little Ice Age, and has since retreated ca 40 km. In addition, we survey ice-margin change across western Greenland, utilizing satellite imagery. We find that many land-terminating sectors of the ice sheet, in addition to our study area, may have attained their maximum late Holocene extent during the 20th century. This suggests a lagged ice-margin response to prior cooling, such as the Little Ice Age, which would imply significant retreat of land-terminating sections of the Greenland Ice Sheet in response to 20th and 21st century warming may be yet to come.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Oct 22, 2012 - 01:04pm PT
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Also new from Geology. Note the correspondence, based on completely different data, methods, location and research team, of the findings reported in this paper and the "northernmost lake" paper I cited above.
Mild Little Ice Age and unprecedented recent warmth in an 1800 year lake sediment record from Svalbard
The Arctic region is subject to a great amplitude of climate variability and is currently undergoing large-scale changes due in part to anthropogenic global warming. Accurate projections of future change depend on anticipating the response of the Arctic climate system to forcing, and understanding how the response to human forcing will interact with natural climate variations. The Svalbard Archipelago occupies an important location for studying patterns and causes of Arctic climate variability; however, available paleoclimate records from Svalbard are of restricted use due to limitations of existing climate proxies. Here we present a sub-decadal- to multidecadal-scale record of summer temperature for the past 1800 yr from lake sediments of Kongressvatnet on West Spitsbergen, Svalbard, based on the first instrumental calibration of the alkenone paleothermometer. The age model for the High Arctic lake sediments is based on 210Pb, plutonium activity, and the first application of tephrochronology to lake sediments in this region. We find that the summer warmth of the past 50 yr recorded in both the instrumental and alkenone records was unmatched in West Spitsbergen in the course of the past 1800 yr, including during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, and that summers during the Little Ice Age (LIA) of the 18th and 19th centuries on Svalbard were not particularly cold, even though glaciers occupied their maximum Holocene extent. Our results suggest that increased wintertime precipitation, rather than cold temperatures, was responsible for LIA glaciations on Svalbard and that increased heat transport into the Arctic via the West Spitsbergen Current began ca. A.D. 1600.
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213
climber
Where the Froude number often >> 1
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Oct 22, 2012 - 01:58pm PT
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LOL @ Indoor smoke, we recently submitted a sweet paper characterizing aerosol particles generated by common ritual burning:
"Shortwave Radiative Properties of Aerosol Aggregates Emitted from Laboratory Combustion of Two Fuels Widely Used in Asian Rituals"
From a health perspective, you get some freaky sensations seeing the nanoparticles (tar balls and fractal chain aggregates) under the SEM; like whoa, those are NOT good to have in the lungs! Not to mention how do they alter the radiation budget.
The CO₂ effect on the Earth's atmosphere is one anticipated for over a century.
Correct. 10/10
We have a much better understanding of the atmosphere now, great research on the reconstructed climate, and models that project into the future. All this science comes with some degree of uncertainty.
This would be a 3/10 answer if I were grading your exam.
Our understanding of the atmosphere is not even close to the degree of completeness required to completely capture its nuances; this is well documented throughout the literature. The Gestalt issue is at hand here...these 'nuances' DO MATTER. Reading poor articles from people merely trying to milk the climate funding cow will not help you understand the complex nonlinear system.
Why has model skill not dramatically increased beyond 7 days from the 1980s to now? It has gotten better within that window, sure, but the same problems exist that limit our understanding now just as they did then. Sure we have better observations and improved parameterizations within the models, etc. The fact of the matter is we still don't have it on LOCK DOWN.
We still use the same linearized equations of Rossby (1938). Just because you have a DOE computer with 10,000 cores running up the power bill to integrate your equations on a ridiculously small grid DOES NOT MEAN you gain major insight (I have this EXACT problem in my research on multiscale forcing of the general circulation via Rossby wave breaking and polar outbreaks leading to wild air-sea interactions and upscale forcing via convection).
Why?
(Here is where you get your points back, Ed? :)
The correct answer gives significant insight into the climate modeling problem. Any takers?
As I have stated before, until we CORRECTLY forecast (NOT REPRODUCE, big difference here) ENSO in global models, we have no reason to assume that our models show any realistic vision of the future. Sure, they are useful for examining bits and pieces of the puzzle, but the big picture is elusive. Once we get ENSO correct, then we are really headed somewhere.
Of course by that time, ecosystem collapse will be x**3 further along and we'll be that much more screwed. We don't need insanely expensive models to show this, we already have satellite imagery! The climate forcing problem is orders of magnitude less of an issue than the global biodiversity crisis; that said, the linkages of the systems serve to exacerbate the problems.
Why is it so hard for people to understand that we are part of a system?
The Tragedy of the Commons idea is dead on, but alas, nobody seems to care. Manifest destiny at its finest?
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Oct 22, 2012 - 02:34pm PT
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Science is NOT just throwing numbers into a statistical package and interpreting the output. Or at least it certainly shouldn't be.
Of course it's not. Did somebody say that it was? Do you think you saw that happening, somewhere on this thread? If you want to make accusations, back them up, don't just vaguely wave your hands.
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healyje
Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
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Oct 22, 2012 - 03:05pm PT
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The anti-science crew hard at work...
ROME 10/22 -- A court found six scientists and an official guilty of manslaughter Monday for failing to properly warn residents in the central Italy city of L’Aquila about the risk of an impending earthquake that killed more than 300 people in 2009.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Oct 22, 2012 - 03:08pm PT
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The anti-science crew hard at work...
Wow, this sounds leftover from witchcraft.
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raymond phule
climber
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Oct 22, 2012 - 03:16pm PT
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Science may, I reiterate, may, kill what is left in a hundred or so years.
Lol, it is the science that kill.
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raymond phule
climber
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Oct 22, 2012 - 03:29pm PT
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No, it is just you that do not understand science, logic and what people write.
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Oct 22, 2012 - 03:39pm PT
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Alcoholism and Tobacco use.
Gosh, I didn't realize that these were part of climate change.
Actually, they are not. Please avoid the thread drift, OK?
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Paul Martzen
Trad climber
Fresno
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Oct 22, 2012 - 05:04pm PT
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We all know that too much alcohol or tobacco use will kill us, despite the historic denials by those industries. Yet we continue using them and continue dying. We like the buzz and those industries like the profits.
More and more of us realize that using too much fossil fuels is destroying our lungs and changing our climate. But we keep on burning them anyway. We like the buzz too much. Our economy and our society seems based on extravagant use of energy.
Does not provide much hope for our future does it?
On the other hand, if it were not for scientific studies into the effects of tobacco smoking and lung cancer, some people would still claim that cigarette smoking was healthy and good for your breathing. Here is a link to some old cigarette ads.
http://www.health.com/health/gallery/0,,20388015_3,00.html
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Elcapinyoazz
Social climber
Joshua Tree
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Oct 22, 2012 - 05:18pm PT
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I do not understand MODERN science
Finally the Chief says something with which we can all agree.
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Elcapinyoazz
Social climber
Joshua Tree
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Oct 22, 2012 - 05:25pm PT
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So, The Chief, back when you were saluting 22yo ensigns, if I were to have come up to you and screamed "what are you doing screwing around with this flight deck sh#t, there's a POTHOLE IN MY DAMN STREET!! and you're not doing anything about it!!!"...
because that's what you're doing, basically saying that climate scientists shouldn't peform their research using their accumated knowledge base and expertise, instead they should become armchair substance abuse counselors or something else that has nothing to do with their profession or training.
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MissJ
Social climber
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Oct 22, 2012 - 06:20pm PT
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Bruce Kay, you missed me huh? And you wonder what I think. Well...calling someone a hillbilly..I'm from the south, a true southern belle...watch out. LOL.
I feel all this writing of 6076 post, is not finding a solution. A debate is ,normally, amongst people with common interst in mind to discuss all of the factors and walk away with everyone feeling they accomplished something (an end to the means ) and everyone feeling valued as a person. That's not happening here or with any thread that deals with politics, religion or science. They just drone on and on and are non-productive and never end. They just go on and on until the subject matter gets lost in it all. Then ,at worst, leaving some feeling they really kicked someone's ass, some feeling frustrated or angry and insulted to the highest degreee.
I worked for an Aerospace Company for 28 years and when we had meetings the rules were up on a wall . Rule #1- Respect the speaker (in this case respect the writer). Rule #2 - if you find you're in disagreement revert to rule #1 and state why you disagree.
Each one of us is either part of the problem or part of the solution. The ones who move on and begin to do are part of the solution. I'll continue to pick up trash in my neighborhood, call on any graffitti I see any where and call on dumped items when I see them.
If you feel the earth is changing to the bad then keep on educating the folks in school until saving our environment becomes a way of life.
Respectfully, Judith
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10b4me
Ice climber
dingy room at the Happy boulders hotel
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Oct 22, 2012 - 06:33pm PT
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If you feel the earth is changing to the bad then keep on educating the folks in school until saving our environment becomes a way of life.
Judith, see you're alright after all.
Come on out to the left coast, and we'll take you climbing
one thing though, you don't listen to rush lamebrain do you?
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MissJ
Social climber
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Oct 22, 2012 - 06:38pm PT
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Oh, heck no 10b4me, I don't listen to him.
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213
climber
Where the Froude number often >> 1
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Oct 22, 2012 - 08:30pm PT
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which perhaps I didn't quite spell out, compared to 100 years ago... and I also stated that there is still a degree of uncertainty
Precisely the problem with not explicitly stating your points! Funny how points of contention arise when a versed eye peers upon your statements!
How am I to know what range of years you are referencing?
Secondly, and this is important for all of us with interests in science, what is your definition of a degree of uncertainty? You have many years of experience from which your philosophical answer to the question can be generated; this, I believe, offers great insight for the next generation of scientists.
I concur that we are in agreement about the second point regarding general sentiments. But, you did not answer the question completely, hence a partial score (and as anyone who is involved with education knows, scoring must be independent of opinion!). Nor did you attempt to answer my other question posed of you...which given your field should be easy money.
I'll go work on my reading comprehension now. A copy of Lorenz's Nature and Theory of the General Circulation of the Atmosphere showed up on my desk :)
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